Caleb Williams: The Year Two Leap Accuracy Didn't Build
Caleb Williams jumped from 33rd to 19th in EPA/play while getting less accurate. I dug into where the gains came from and whether year three holds.
By Andy Troiano · September 03, 2026
General fantasy football analysis, strategies, and thoughts.
Caleb Williams jumped from 33rd to 19th in EPA/play while getting less accurate. I dug into where the gains came from and whether year three holds.
By Andy Troiano · September 03, 2026
Maye posted the best EPA/play in football and the highest CPOE on record. I pulled every elite QB season since 1999 to see what usually happens next.
By Andy Troiano · September 01, 2026
Our new trending page tells you which adds are worth making. How it works, the two takes it got wrong, and the 20-player board it produced today.
By Andy Troiano · August 25, 2026
Upsets were the theme of last week, from the Ravens coming back from a 10-point deficit to two blocked field goals for touchdowns, and the Broncos beating the Raiders for the first time since 2019, chaos rained down upon the NFL. Despite that, our predictions have only gotten more and more solid as the year has chugged along. This week, we are looking for trends to be slightly bucked, with lots of breakout games due to starter injuries and even more players on track to end touchdown droughts. Let’s take a look at this week’s fantasy matchups and see who you need to start, sit, and cross your fingers on this week.
By Venuse · October 10, 2024
Through 2 weeks of play, the 2024 NFL Season has been defined by sloppy play and unexpected outcomes. As the trends start to show themselves, fantasy matchups stop being defined by a few lucky “boom” players and leagues begin to be dominated by the savviest managers. And that’s where we come in. By combining past results with the fantasy football algorithms of Gridiron AI, let’s look at what players are must-starts and must-sits in their Week 3 matchups.
By Venuse · September 19, 2024
And just like that, the 2024 NFL Season is off and running. As always, sloppy play dominated, especially with new kickoff rules and updated tackling guidelines changing how every single football player approaches the game. But with the data in the books and another action-packed week of football ahead, it’s time to dig into what you need to know for Week 2 of your fantasy football leagues.
By Venuse · September 11, 2024
Whilst the NFL never truly sleeps, it is a massive relief to have regular-season football back in our lives. As per usual, this offseason has been stocked full of team and player narratives, with nothing but speculation and hype to fuel them. Now, with a spectacular set of Week 1 games to enjoy, we are finally going to get some answers to our questions.
By Venuse · September 05, 2024
The FFPC Playoff Challenge offers a unique fantasy football experience, diverging significantly from standard formats. Participants select a team from every NFL playoff player, considering the unique roster constraints and scoring rules of the FFPC. Understanding these rules is crucial for formulating a successful strategy.
By Nick Gurol · January 13, 2024
The FFPC Playoff Challenge presents a unique opportunity for fantasy football enthusiasts. In this challenge, you build a 12-player roster from the entire NFL playoff pool, with one player per team:
By Nick Gurol · January 13, 2024
As we head into Week 13, the waiver wire is buzzing with potential pickups that could make a significant difference in your fantasy football lineup. From a tight end returning from injury to promising quarterback options and a rookie wide receiver on the rise, this week offers a variety of choices to bolster your roster.
By Nick Gurol · November 28, 2023
This week on the waiver wire, it's a quality over quantity scenario. We have a few very high-quality options available that could significantly impact your fantasy football lineup. Whether you're looking for a potential RB1 or a consistent wide receiver, Week 12 offers some intriguing choices.
By Nick Gurol · November 21, 2023
As we head into Week 11, the fantasy football waiver wire is brimming with potential pickups. Whether you're looking to fill gaps due to injuries or bye weeks, or just aiming to strengthen your roster, here are the top waiver wire targets to consider.
By Nick Gurol · November 14, 2023
Week 10 brings a fresh set of opportunities on the fantasy football waiver wire. This week's targets are particularly intriguing for managers looking to bolster their quarterback position or add depth at skill positions. Here are the top waiver wire pickups to consider as you prepare for the upcoming matchups.
By Nick Gurol · November 07, 2023
If there's a lesson here, it's that we need to update the values of these players as we get more information throughout the week. OR ... and hear me out... maybe it's kind of weird everyone does waiver adds on Wednesday morning? Let's move on to Week 8.
By Nick Gurol · October 24, 2023
Welcome back to the Week 7 waiver wire report. The waiver wire landscape is looking sparse compared to the early weeks of the season, emphasizing the importance of early-season aggressiveness. If you're in need of a quarterback, this week offers some promising options. Every league is different so if you are not sure how to tackle your waiver wire this week, hit us up with questions in our discord.
By Nick Gurol · October 17, 2023
Week 5 brings a unique set of challenges as the Buccaneers, Chargers, Browns, and Seahawks are on bye. The waiver wire is relatively scant compared to the first three weeks of the season. This should serve as a lesson for next year: being aggressive on the waiver wire early in the season is optimal. This week, we have one solid option at RB and WR, and if you're QB-needy (Sorry, Daniel Jones drafters), you're in luck.
By Nick Gurol · October 03, 2023
Welcome back to the waiver report. As noted before, players who are on the waiver wire are notoriously hard to project for our models because, in many cases, we don't have a solid snap count sample to use for modeling. We are working on improving, but in the meantime please note that the projections on most of these players are lower than they should be. I try to explain the upside case for these players given their new opportunity or situation change.
By Nick Gurol · September 26, 2023
Our model depends heavily on a predicted snap count. Being on the field increases your chances of scoring fantasy points. Period. In situations where predicting the snap count is difficult, our model will struggle. Players coming off the waiver wire and stepping into a new role is one of these situations. Let's dive in and provide some clarity.
By Nick Gurol · September 19, 2023
Welcome back to The Lab at Gridiron AI. We consistently outperform mainstream projections by an average of one point. This marginal edge, when applied consistently, can turn the tide in your favor.
By Nick Gurol · September 15, 2023
Hello, football fans! Welcome to your weekly newsletter, the ultimate guide for recapping the past week and making those all-important waiver wire decisions. Let's get started!
By Nick Gurol · September 13, 2023
This post covers over 2020 projections for the top 25 players. We also outline the modeling process we follow to help you better understand our process. The tables contain the min, max, and mean predictions to help you get a feeling of the risk for a player.
By Andy Troiano · July 14, 2020
This post covers over 2020 projections for the top 25 players. We also outline the modeling process we follow to help you better understand our process. The tables contain the min, max, and mean predictions to help you get a feeling of the risk for a player.
By Andy Troiano · July 14, 2020
Get started in modeling NFL data using GridironAI's datasets. This article provides a gentle introduction to the process using Python. Ben outlines the process to create a simple model and provides some idea for the reader to explore to make it more advanced.
By Ben Harris · June 18, 2020
Evan, from sportsbookscout.com, provides insight into the biggest tanks and turnarounds of the decade. This breaks down what went right. wrong and offers insight into what happened
By Evan Ankney · June 09, 2020
Kyler Eller takes a look at two potential DraftKings lineups. One lineup is based on his knowledge of DFS and another that takes leverages the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week fifteen to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · December 13, 2019
This post will cover the week 13 rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · November 27, 2019
This post will cover the week 12 rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · November 21, 2019
Kyler Eller takes a look at two potential DraftKings lineups. One lineup is based on his knowledge of DFS and another that takes leverages the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week eleven to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · November 13, 2019
This post will cover the week 11 rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · November 12, 2019
This post will cover the week ten rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · November 05, 2019
Kyler Eller takes a look at two potential DraftKings lineups. One lineup is based on his knowledge of DFS and another that takes leverages the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week nine to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · October 30, 2019
This post will cover the week nine rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · October 30, 2019
Kyler Eller takes a look at two potential DraftKings lineups. One lineup is based on his knowledge of DFS and another that takes leverages the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week eight to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · October 24, 2019
This post will cover the week eight rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · October 23, 2019
This post will cover the week seven rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · October 17, 2019
Kyler Eller takes a look at two potential DraftKings lineups. One lineup is based on his knowledge of DFS and another that takes leverages the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week six to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · October 09, 2019
Soley analyzing snap count changes from week to week can provide an incomplete picture of a player's involvement in the offense. Sometimes, a player is on the field more due to game conditions. In this article, we look at usage and snap count combined, to try to hone into potential opportunities. This article looks at who makes the list after week five of the NFL season.
By Andy Troiano · October 09, 2019
Kyler Eller takes a look at two potential DraftKings lineups. One lineup is based on his knowledge of DFS and another that takes leverages the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week five to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · October 03, 2019
This post will cover the week five rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor that takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · October 01, 2019
Soley analyzing snap count changes from week to week can provide an incomplete picture of a player's involvement in the offense. Sometimes, a player is on the field more due to game conditions. In this article, we look at usage and snap count combined, to try to hone into potential opportunities. This article looks at who makes the list after week four of the NFL season.
By Andy Troiano · October 01, 2019
Soley analyzing snap count changes from week to week can provide an incomplete picture of a player's involvement in the offense. Sometimes, a player is on the field more due to game conditions. In this article, we look at usage and snap count combined, to try to hone into potential opportunity. This article looks at who makes the list after week three of the NFL season.
By Andy Troiano · September 25, 2019
Soley analyzing snap count changes from week to week can provide an incomplete picture of a player's involvement in the offense. Sometimes, a player is on the field more due to game conditions. In this article, we look at usage and snap count combined, to try to hone into potential opportunity. This article looks at who makes the list after week 2 of the NFL season.
By Andy Troiano · September 20, 2019
This post will cover the week three rankings generated by our models. We provide the top 10 at each position as well as a risk factor which takes into account the range of potential outcomes for the player.
By Andy Troiano · September 19, 2019
Soley analyzing snap count changes from week to week can provide an incomplete picture of a player's involvement in the offense. Sometimes, a player is on the field more due to game conditions. In this article, we look at usage and snap count combined, to try to hone into potential opportunity.
By Andy Troiano · September 12, 2019
Kyler Eller takes a look at a potential DraftKings lineup that takes his lineup based on his knowledge of DFS and combines the AI projections. We'll be evaluating the outcome after week 2 to see which lineup performed better.
By Kyle Eller · September 12, 2019
This post will cover the week 1 rankings generated by our models. I don’t currently have rookie projections for week 1. This is a function of a different set of data being required and our offseason priority to build out Pick’em projections. Rookies will be in for Week 2.
By Andy Troiano · September 03, 2019
After an extremely busy weekend filled with a 16 team .5 PT PPR draft, and a 12 team 1 keeper .5 PT PPR money league draft, I have some interesting notes, comparisons, and shockers from both. I used a draft strategy taking 4 RBs, then 4 WRs, then filled my bench with more RBs and WRs before ending my drafts with a QB, TE, DEF, then K.
By Kyle Eller · August 27, 2019
I attempt to discover value picks using total potential touches/fantasy points scored. Total potential touches are the sum of reception targets, rushing attempts and passing attempts for each player. High-efficiency players might have value if their overall workload increases.
By Andy Troiano · August 19, 2019
In this article, we examine the tight end position and provide reasonable guidance on how one should draft the position. After we figure out a strategy, we recap the 2018 performance of the top guys.
By Andy Troiano · June 17, 2019
In this article, I'll attempt to answer the age-old question, "When should you draft a quarterback?". I'll analyze both seasonal vs. weekly data and PPR vs. Standard scoring. My goal is to come up with performance tiers that you can use to generate a mental model for draft day.
By Andy Troiano · May 29, 2019
What are position tier and performance factors of the top wide receivers on a yearly basis? In this article I'll dig into the age-old question of when you should draft a wide receiver over a running back early in the draft. I'll use season and weekly data and look at how your decision might differ based on your league's scoring format.
By Andy Troiano · May 17, 2019
Outside skill conversations, are there other factors about a player's situation you should take into account when it comes time to draft or pickup? Using weekly and season data, I examine the potential tiers and performance of running backs.
By Andy Troiano · March 25, 2019
Using data from 2010 forward, we will examine the likely outcomes of their next game. The goal is to try to find the right balance of risk and upside when selecting a Quarterback in Daily Fantasy Sports or Weekly Points Leagues
By Andy Troiano · March 06, 2019
In this article, we are using analytics to examine the performance of QB play on the other offensive positions. My goal is to provide the first steps in coming up with a QB factor I frequently mention in other posts. My hypothesis is: bad QB play has a cascading effect on other offensive positions.
By Andy Troiano · February 28, 2019
If a player is playing injured or coming back from an injury, should you start them? Does the answer to this question differ based on player position? Or based on injury status? Should you trade an injured player if you can get close to full value for them? We attempt to answer these questions in this article using data science.
By Andy Troiano · February 05, 2019