NFL 2019 Week 13 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · November 27, 2019

This post will cover the week five rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Mahomes might have a “Very High” for downside Risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory; it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kirk Cousins </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 25.8 </td> <td> 29.5 </td> <td> 21.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Daniel Jones </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 24.7 </td> <td> 30.2 </td> <td> 22.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jimmy Garoppolo </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Russell Wilson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> 30.5 </td> <td> 23.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 23.9 </td> <td> 31.6 </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 31.9 </td> <td> 23.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Drew Brees </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 27.7 </td> <td> 21.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Allen </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 21.3 </td> <td> 34.5 </td> <td> 21.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> 40.8 </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> 39.6 </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> 36.2 </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 34.5 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 18.9 </td> <td> 33.4 </td> <td> 18.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 31.5 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 31.5 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 29.6 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kenyan Drake </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 30.6 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 33.4 </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 31.5 </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 29.2 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 27.9 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 26.6 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kenyan Drake </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> 24.3 </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 20.5 </td> <td> 32.4 </td> <td> 20.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> 32.4 </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 28.5 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 27.4 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 27.3 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 26.6 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian Kirk </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 27.5 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Lockett </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> D.J. Moore </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> 18.3 </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian Kirk </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> 18.9 </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> D.J. Moore </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Lockett </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 9.7 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 9.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 8.7 </td> <td> 15.2 </td> <td> 8.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> 15.2 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 8.1 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 7.9 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 7.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 7.8 </td> <td> 14.7 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> 13.9 </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 6.4 </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 5.8 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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