And just like that, the 2024 NFL Season is off and running. As always, sloppy play dominated, especially with new kickoff rules and updated tackling guidelines changing how every single football player approaches the game. But with the data in the books and another action-packed week of football ahead, it’s time to dig into what you need to know for Week 2 of your fantasy football leagues.
Only one week in, we will still be combining data from Week 1, as well as preseason play, the end of last season, and a host of other factors. As always, we’ll be using our Gridiron AI predictive models and machine learning to tear through every piece of data from last week in order to give you the edge you need to dominate your fantasy league.
But since you’re here now, let’s get into the weeds and find the fantasy players you MUST start and sit going into Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) @ Detroit Lions
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Baker looked great in his season debut against the Commanders, but many managers will be scared off by his much stronger opponent in Week 2. Despite this, Mayfield looks like a must-start this week because of his upside. Based on the matchup data and the last handful of games alone, in fact, Mayfield looks like a higher-value start than Patrick Mahomes. With a projected score of 15.9 points, his Gridiron AI upside of 29.4 points makes the start necessary. Admittedly, the data also shows him having the lowest floor of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks, but don’t let that scare you off.
Although the Lions pulled out the win last Sunday, their pass defense continues to look like their weakest link, allowing over 300 yards through the air. Terrion Arnold is going to be a star, but this week he’ll be lining up against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, whom Baker can connect with at will. Add to that the fact that the Lions were middle-of-the-pack in takeaways and 6th worst at defending the pass through last season, and it looks like the Bake Show should, win or lose, continue against this Lions secondary.
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) vs New Orleans Saints
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 6
No competent fantasy manager is drinking the Saints Kool-Aid after Week 1 against the woeful Panthers. (Yes, that was a Kool-Aid McKinstry joke, thank you for noticing.) And Dak Prescott is the first in a long line of QBs this season that will feast on an aging, poorly coached defensive unit. Our model has Dak at QB7 this week, up there with the blue-chip fantasy guys with his median projected point total at 14.7.
The main contributor to Dak’s expected success this week will come down to volume. The Saints' offense projects really poorly against this Cowboys defense, so Prescott should be touching the ball more than any other player on the field. The Saints are also relying heavily on aging veterans like Cam Jordan and Demario Davis who, while solid, will struggle against a Cowboys offensive line that held up well against a much fiercer Browns attack. Add in a CeeDee Lamb with a full week of practice, and Dak should be able to unleash against Dennis Allen’s cobbled-together team. Our model looks at his success against a great Browns defense and doesn’t fear New Orleans when Dallas has home-field advantage, giving Dak a potential upside of 27.6 points.
Running Backs
James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) vs Los Angeles Rams
- Gridiron AI projected points: 17.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Conner was a revelation against the Bills in Week 1, and there's no reason he won’t continue being an RB1 for the rest of the season. Conner touched the ball on 48.8% of the Cardinals’ plays last Sunday, continuing his streak of exceptional fantasy performances that goes all the way back to last season when the Cards started heating up. Our model expects that momentum to carry into Week 2 against the LA Rams, where Conner will get to test a rush defense that just folded to the Lions after a long game.
The Rams snuck into the top half of the league in rush defense last season thanks to the final hurrah of Aaron Donald, but now they’re running with a young D-line and a linebacker corps of relative unknowns. This means that the opportunities will be there for an experienced back behind an underrated O-line to take advantage and maybe break out some longer runs. For these reasons, our model expects him to score 17.1 points this week, with an upside of 39 points, since he’s the only back getting significant carries in Arizona. Once Trey Benson is ready to shine, maybe Conner’s value will dip, but at least until the Cardinals’ bye, you should probably keep a starting spot reserved for number 6.
Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers) vs Indianapolis Colts
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.7 (upside 31.7)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 14
Josh Jacobs’ value just shot through the roof for the worst possible reason. The injury to Jordan Love means that Josh Jacobs is about to see his load increase even more than it did in his debut. With Malik Willis expected to start, Jacobs can expect to see an increase from his 38% touch percentage from Week 1. His touchdowns got vultured last week, but that shouldn’t be expected to become a habit, and with the amount of rushing he’ll be doing next week, touchdowns would just be an added bonus.
The Colts posted a bottom-10 rush defense last season and a bottom-5 scoring defense, and although they fortified with additions like Raekwon Davis and Laiatu Latu, they let Joe Mixon go for 159 yards on the ground. So, our model doesn’t have a ton of faith in them against a younger, healthier Josh Jacobs. With all that compiled, the former Raider is expected to channel his Alabama days with an average performance worth around 14 points, but with a potential upside of 31.7 points.
J.K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers) @ Carolina Panthers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.6 (upside 15.4)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 34
This spot may end up going to Gus Edwards in the long term, but right now, Dobbins looks and feels like the right pick. In his first game back from his second season missed due to injury, Dobbins barely missed a step, rushing for 135 yards on just 10 carries, also scoring a touchdown against the Vegas Raiders. Now, he gets an opportunity against an awful Panthers team that will meet him at the line of scrimmage with Shy Tuttle and Josey Jewell. It also doesn’t seem like the Panthers will control time of possession, so both Dobbins and Edwards seeing increased volume isn’t out of the question.
When healthy, Dobbins was one of the most dangerous young backs in football. The play he injured his Achilles on last season was a boundary TD run, and he has averaged 19.9 fantasy points through his last three appearances. Against a Panthers unit that was the 4th worst rush defense in football when they still had Brian Burns, Dobbins is only ranked at RB33 going into Week 2, but he has solid flex value, with our projections giving him a score of 6.6 points. With all the factors going into play, he’s very likely to approach his upside score of 15.4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed that.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
The Ravens are angry, and Zay Flowers will be the executor of their rage against the Raiders this week. Flowers was effective against the Chiefs last week, but his fantasy numbers were disappointing, with most of his receptions coming behind the sticks for YAC opportunities. This week, against a Raiders team that gave up 140 passing yards to a Chargers team that only completed 17 passes, Flowers is going to eat them alive.
Even if Lamar is throwing a lot of quick screens like last week because of Maxx Crosby, Flowers is the main recipient of those passes, and his YAC should be way up this time around. Our model sees him as a top-20 wide receiver and a must-start, good for at least 12.4 points, but with an upside worth almost double that. Baltimore’s WR1 is still looking for redemption from the AFC Championship Game, and against Vegas, this is a good time to get the ball rolling.
Keenan Allen (Chicago Bears) @ Houston Texans
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Wide receiver 2s are all the rage against great corners, since most teams will have to deal with their best receiver being locked up. This is exactly what our Gridiron AI model is looking at as the Bears take on the Texans this weekend. DJ Moore has to deal with Derek Stingley Jr., who is a sneaky DPOY candidate, while Keenan Allen should be lining up across from Kamari Lassiter. DeMeco Ryans is a solid coach who covers his weaknesses well, but Caleb targeted Allen 11 times last week, and if he’s able to haul in just a few more of them this week than he did in Week 1, he’s going to dominate.
Our model has Keenan Allen as the 3rd best wide receiver in the league this week, projected to score 15.7 points, with an upside of 30.6 points thanks to his projected volume, especially if Caleb is able to find him in 1-on-1 situations. Odunze is going to break out eventually, so Keenan is a short-term play, but if he’s on your roster, he’s a definite start this week against the Texans.
Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) @ Green Bay Packers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 15
One of the most undervalued receivers after Week 1 has to be Michael Pittman Jr. of the Colts. His performance against the Texans wasn’t great, but look at what we just said about Derek Stingley Jr. putting clamps on a team’s best option. Pittman still got 8 targets and averaged 8 yards per catch. This week, against the Packers, Pittman should be able to move more freely and snag more of his targets.
The Packers allowed 266 yards through the air last week, and Anthony Richardson made a point of showcasing his ability to accurately throw to any place on the field, so it looks like the Colts’ top receiver is on course for a great day, projected at WR15 by our model.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons) @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Gridiron AI projected points: 8.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 15.6
Folks, it looks like Kyle Pitts is finally here. It took three years, but it seems like Atlanta is finally in a position to use the Florida superstar as a proper weapon in their system. His touches were limited against a Steelers defense that put Kirk Cousins in a blender, but he still managed 3 catches, 1 for a touchdown, all while Cousins fed London and Robinson in turn.
Our model sees Pitts just outside the top 10 in his matchup against the Eagles this week, projecting his score at 8.1 points, and since the Eagles allowed the 7th most passing yards in Week 1, it definitely seems like Atlanta’s offensive line will shore up more and Cousins will be able to utilize Pitts against a young collection of Philly defensive backs.
Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs Cleveland Browns
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 2
Evan Engram is our model’s TE2 this week, coming in just behind everyone’s favorite podcaster’s brother, Travis Kelce. The Jaguars are matched up against the Browns this week, who were just carved up by the Cowboys. Jake Ferguson left the game with an injury, but was targeted 5 times, catching 3. Engram will benefit from the Browns’ loose tight-end coverage after a down Week 1 and should be able to take advantage of a good matchup. Against an excellent Cleveland secondary, the Jags would be wise to choose their wide receiver battles carefully, leaving lots of opportunities for Engram across the middle of the field, where he thrives. Because of the potential for high volume, Engram’s ceiling is estimated at 24.4 points this week, but his expected points are 12.8, a good benchmark for any starting tight end.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
Look, we all saw the news, but even if you ignore that, Watson played horribly last week. Against the Cowboys, he looked completely lost, and even though his shoulder seemed healthy, he was still making too many mistakes. Our model gives him the lowest floor of any veteran quarterback in the league, including Jacoby Brissett, simply because of his poor decision-making and lacking play.
The Jaguars aren’t the defensive juggernaut that the Cowboys are, but they have a solid pass rush that should limit Watson’s time to throw and force even more mistakes. If Watson is your starter, check the waiver wire and free agency for a promising rookie or a mid-tier veteran. According to our model, Watson shouldn’t be anything more than a last-ditch QB2 on your fantasy roster, worth only 12.5 points this week.
CJ Stroud (Houston Texans) vs Chicago Bears
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 21
Stroud is more of a surprise from our Gridiron AI following a great Week 1 where he limited mistakes and found his guys. Against an elite Chicago Bears defense, however, our model expects a much more grounded performance. If the Colts' defense is concrete, the Bears are tempered steel, with a good pass rush and twitchy DBs. Stroud is good enough to win the game, but it is expected that the Texans will focus on their run game to control the tempo more, limiting Stroud’s opportunities. His ceiling, according to our Week 2 projections, is 24.6 points, lower than that of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold against their opponents.
This week, Stroud projects to be QB21, scoring 12.5 points, not good enough to win a matchup on his own. Unlike Watson, though, Stroud will still be a solid QB option throughout most of the year. The numbers just say that this is a good week to switch to your backup.
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Denver Broncos
- Gridiron AI projected points: 3.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 42
Injury is a big limiter for Warren at this point in the year, but Justin Fields leading the team certainly isn’t helping. With Fields running in Warren’s style, Najee Harris has become much more prominent once again as the powerful, up-the-middle rusher, while Fields has reverted to the speedy, outside rusher. Warren only touched the ball 4 times, and those were the only 4 plays designed for him the whole day.
Our model has Warren at RB42 this week against the Broncos, only expected to score 3.9 points. With Fields starting again against a Broncos unit that wasn’t great against the rush last season, it seems much more likely that Warren remains the 3rd option in the running game, not worth using a starting spot on.
Alexander Mattison (Las Vegas Raiders) @ Baltimore Ravens
- Gridiron AI projected points: 4.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 39
Raiders fans hoped that the young Zamir White would get the lead back role over the free-agent veteran Mattison, and they got their wish. While Mattison had some PPR life through the short passing game, he and the Raiders are going up against a Ravens team that doesn’t give up anything at the line of scrimmage and that has Kyle Hamilton sniffing around for any screen-pass shenanigans. Our model hates the matchup for both Raiders RBs, but has Mattison as a must-bench, while White’s volume could lead to something productive. Mattison projects out to be the 39th-best RB option for Week 2, not even in consideration for a flex spot.
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins) vs Buffalo
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 35
Achane’s placement on this list is largely due to injury concerns. He and Mostert both got hurt in Week 1 and didn’t practice early in the week. And Achane’s injury was to his ankle, much more likely to hold him out than Mostert’s chest injury. The main issue is that Achane is replaceable to the Dolphins, as they drafted Jaylen Wright to do exactly what Achane does in both speed and outside screen-game ability. It would be really easy for the Dolphins to hold Achane out as a precaution this week and go ahead with Wright. If he’s cleared to go soon, this could change, but as of right now, he’s RB35 and has a ceiling 10 points lower than Raheem Mostert due to the relative seriousness of their injuries.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona Cardinals) vs Los Angeles Rams
- Gridiron AI projected points: 7.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 59
Most Cardinals rose in value after their Week 1 performance against the Bills, but MHJ’s plummeted. Now, this isn’t your sign to move off him or slam your fist for drafting him in the top 15, but it is your sign to stash him on your bench and be patient. Thanks to last week, it’s clear that the Cardinals' offense is going to lean on James Conner until an opponent effectively stops the run. And until Kyler and MHJ build up the rapport, it seems like the rookie won’t be getting many targets. While it’s disappointing, it won’t be forever. But against a Rams team that should allow James Conner to work, the Arizona game plan doesn’t seem to be changing much from last week. MHJ is a bench candidate until he suddenly won’t be, so keep your ears open on him.
Romeo Doubs (Green Bay Packers) vs Indianapolis Colts
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 38
Generally, avoid all Packers receivers until Jordan Love comes back. Doubs is just the one who projected the lowest among high-value receivers in our model. Overshadowed by Jayden Reed in Sao Paulo, Doubs is a solid contributor to a Packers receiving group that has no well-defined top option. Now, with Love gone, it’s impossible to think that one guy will elevate Malik Willis or draw all his targets. So, even with Doubs leading the team in targets, our model expects Doubs to only be worth 9.8 points against the Colts, good for 38th among receivers. A run-heavy game plan, made to minimize QB errors, will also lower Doubs' value until Love gets back.
Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers) @ Minnesota Vikings
- Gridiron AI projected points: 7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 65
Another absolute stunner: our projections put Aiyuk at wide receiver 65 this week against the Vikings, only expected to score 7 points. It seems like the majority of that depression is due to the Vikings’ weak rush defense, which should allow Christian McCaffrey and a budding Jordan Mason to dominate. That said, there should still be opportunities for Aiyuk, fresh off a new contract and a full week of practice, to shine. And against a Vikings unit that pounded Daniel Jones, but still allowed him to throw for 166 yards, it looks like Gridiron AI simply likes the matchups for Deebo Samuel and George Kittle more. Be sure to check the projections as the week progresses for updates, though.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo (Tennessee Titans) vs New York Jets
- Gridiron AI projected points: 2.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 29
Chig Okonkwo is one of the sneakier tight end options in the league, especially as a safety valve for young QBs like Will Levis. Against a stacked Jets linebacker corps and secondary, however, he’s not going to have much (if any) separation or opportunity to make plays. Honestly, Gridiron AI is just telling us to fade anything having to do with the Titans' offense this game. Okonkwo is coming in as TE29 after scoring a touchdown in the season opener, and while he remains a good red-zone target, the projections don’t expect him to get anywhere near the end zone this week.
Mike Gesicki (Cincinnati Bengals) @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 22
Gesicki is the latest in a long line of tight ends to sign a mercenary deal with the Bengals hoping to win a ring. If last week was any indication, he’s not too pleased with that plan. Against a solid Patriots defense, Gesicki caught 3 of his 4 targets but was denied a touchdown catch due to a penalty. While he’s still a solid player and could contribute against weaker teams, the Bengals are up against the Chiefs in Arrowhead this Sunday. With a rivalry game like this, guys that Burrow can trust, like Chase and Higgins, are going to dominate the touches, especially with Gesicki lost in the fold with Nick Bolton of the Chiefs.
The Gridiron AI algorithm doesn’t love Joe Burrow against KC this week (QB 10), especially after last week, so it has no faith in Gesicki against the two-time champs. At tight end 22, you’re better off going with your other TE option or going to the free agency market.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here