NFL 2019 Week 11 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · November 12, 2019

This post will cover the week five rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Mahomes might have a “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory; it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Allen </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 28.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt Ryan </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 25.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kirk Cousins </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 25.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kyler Murray </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> 29.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> 39.1 </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> 31.2 </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Jacobs </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 27.7 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James White </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tevin Coleman </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> 31.7 </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Jacobs </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 13.8 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 13.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> 19.7 </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Melvin Gordon </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tevin Coleman </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Joe Mixon </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> 28.7 </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 27.3 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 24.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Amari Cooper </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Odell Beckham Jr. </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 15.2 </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 15.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Amari Cooper </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Odell Beckham Jr. </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 9.6 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 9.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 9.6 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 9.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Gerald Everett </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> 17.6 </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 7.4 </td> <td> 12.9 </td> <td> 7.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 6.5 </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 6.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Gerald Everett </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 6.4 </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 6.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> 11.3 </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 5.3 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 5.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 5.2 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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