NFL 2019 Week 3 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · September 19, 2019

This post will cover the week three rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data. In the coming weeks, I will analyze the most significant spreads between our projections and projections from other sites. At the time of writing, we are not able to get our hands on other sites' predictions.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside/downside projection in the tables below which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because their projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Week 3, Rosen has “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out. The chance of his downside risk is probably high because his scores can be volatile and he hasn't scored large amounts consistently over his short career.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory, it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player
  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player
  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player
  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the player's position
  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the player's position

QB

  • Dak Prescott is finally getting love from our model.

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 29.3 </td> <td> 58.6 </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 32.7 </td> <td> 8.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 31.0 </td> <td> 7.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carson Wentz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 31.0 </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mitchell Trubisky </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 31.0 </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Rodgers </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 30.2 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Allen </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 31.0 </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philip Rivers </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 30.0 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 30.4 </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

  • Josh Jacobs is ranked high again. Last week, he was going crazy before he got injured. He’ll be a high risk/ high reward player this week.

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> 33.4 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> 32.3 </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> 31.9 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Marlon Mack </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 31.7 </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sony Michel </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> 30.9 </td> <td> 9.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 30.1 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 29.4 </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Saquon Barkley </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 28.4 </td> <td> 9.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 29.0 </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 28.3 </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 28.7 </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Marlon Mack </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 27.7 </td> <td> 9.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 27.5 </td> <td> 9.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sony Michel </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 17.6 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 26.2 </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 25.8 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 24.9 </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 23.8 </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Peyton Barber </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 23.8 </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 24.2 </td> <td> 33.8 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 32.3 </td> <td> 13.9 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sammy Watkins </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 21.1 </td> <td> 30.5 </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 29.5 </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 27.8 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Emmanuel Sanders </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 27.8 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Williams </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> 9.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> 26.8 </td> <td> 9.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> John Ross </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 26.2 </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 8.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sammy Watkins </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 13.8 </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 5.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Emmanuel Sanders </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 5.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Williams </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 5.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 5.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> John Ross </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 11.3 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 5.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 23.4 </td> <td> 32.3 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 29.8 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 12.9 </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> 5.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> 5.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 11.3 </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 4.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Vance McDonald </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 3.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 3.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Trey Burton </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 3.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 9.5 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 2.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jordan Reed </td> <td> WAS </td> <td> 9.4 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 2.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 13.9 </td> <td> 20.5 </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> 2.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> 2.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Vance McDonald </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 7.2 </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 2.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 7.2 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 2.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> 12.9 </td> <td> 1.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Trey Burton </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 1.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jordan Reed </td> <td> WAS </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 1.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 1.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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