NFL 2019 Week 5 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · October 01, 2019

This post will cover the week five rankings generated by our models.

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Basically other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because their projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory, it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players in order for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 33.5 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Russell Wilson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt Ryan </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Rodgers </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Goff </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 20.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philip Rivers </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> 35.5 </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 19.9 </td> <td> 35.0 </td> <td> 19.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 32.4 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 31.4 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 31.2 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 29.9 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 29.4 </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Damien Williams </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 28.8 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 28.9 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James White </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 25.8 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 28.6 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 27.9 </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 13.8 </td> <td> 25.7 </td> <td> 13.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> 25.2 </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 24.8 </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Damien Williams </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sterling Shepard </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 24.9 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 24.8 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 24.7 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Robert Woods </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 24.4 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 17.6 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sterling Shepard </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Robert Woods </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 21.3 </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> 20.2 </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Delanie Walker </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.3 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Greg Olsen </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Will Dissly </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 9.1 </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 9.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 7.8 </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 7.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Greg Olsen </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Will Dissly </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Delanie Walker </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 6.6 </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> 6.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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