Fantasy Performance of Quarterbacks

By Andy Troiano · May 29, 2019

Fantasy Performance of Quaterbacks

Welcome to the third article in this series, links to the other blog posts are below. The final entry is going to focus on the Tight End position; like all my articles, they are going last and will likely be the shortest, no disrespect to the TEs in the league, they don’t score lots of points and there are only a few that are fantasy relevant.

My goal is to come up with performance tiers that you can use to generate a mental model for draft day and recap some of the 2019 performances.

Talk to us on Slack

If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on in our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK

Scoring Type (Read this please)

I'm going to do this analysis assuming 4 points per passing touchdown. I'll do analysis that looks at both points per receptions scoring (PPR) and standard scoring, which will allow a deeper dive into what we should do when we're drafting for each scoring format.

Third in a series

This blog post is the third post in the series where I'm diving into RB/WR/QB/TE drafting strategies. The goal is to look at each position independently and then try to knit together a cohesive strategy after each position is completed.

Team Wins

The figure below shows the density of quarterback rank against team wins at the end of the season. The distribution is what I would expect; the top quarterbacks are generally on the best teams. An essential item to note, there aren’t many 17, 16, 15, and 14 win teams, so that data might be a little skewed. Outside of this, I don’t have high confidence wins matter much, as the best teams have the best players so more talent is surrounding these quarterbacks. My favorite example is Jared Goff, who's a highly debated player with followers that fall into two main camps; the first camp thinks he is elite while the second camp believes his success stems from having a great coach and excellent skill players around him. The reality is likely somewhere in-between, but it’s tough to know his actual skill.

Another thought--the current era of football heavily favors the offense, so teams that win a lot usually score a lot of points. The offense tends to run through the quarterback, which increases their likelihood to get a share of those points.

Distribution of Fantasy Points By QB Category

Potential Quarterback Tiers

Tiers are essential to fantasy sports, especially when drafting a team. All the analysis in this section will operate under the assumption that we all know who will end the season at each rank, which is fine logic when it comes to drafting because you don’t know the exact outcome until after the season. The assumption is the preseason rank = end of season rank (definitely not usually the case, but it's the best we have to go off of).

Analysis

  • I notice a clear drop off after the top 5 QB.
  • After that in most formats, you can punt drafting a QB.
  • I feel like this is usually the strategy I follow--I either get the top one or two guys and if not, wait it out.
  • Last year I drafted Marcus Mariota and that was a disaster
  • I ended up being bailed out by the GOAT, Baker Mayfield.
  • Now that I've written the running back and wide receiver posts, punting quarterbacks and focusing on getting a wide receivers early in the draft is my preferred strategy. If you have the option to get a top 2-3 WR vs. any QB not named Mahomes, you should probably take the WR.

Points Per Reception Sidebar

If you look at the total points scored, the top QB definitely has the most overall out of players from all positions, especially if you use six points per TD (which is not included in this post, but we can reasonably infer this from the current data). However, the middle-tier QBs score fewer points than the top 10 WRs and RBs.

Standard Scoring Sidebar

QB has the clear advantage in points scored overall out of players from all positions, so I’m going to contradict what I just wrote about punting a QB and recommend you get a top QB early. Punting is still viable, but if you want to maximize points on average, the best way to do that in standard scoring appears to be via a top QB.

Fantasy Points by Position Rank

Point Fluctuations for Quarterbacks

Let’s focus on weekly fluctuations of points for a moment. I find it useful to understand bands of potential scoring so I can evaluate risk.

Yearly Data

We’ll start by analyzing the scoring bands at the end of the year. The top scoring QBs displays similar distributions as top players at other positions. This is likely because top players have no upper limit on their score (meaning, if he scores 1000 points, he’ll still be the top QB while other players would move up as they score). I don’t see a plateau in this data. I do notice the slope of the median value is almost flat from ~8-13. If you're in a 12-team league, this could be an excellent opportunity to wait. One of those guys will likely be available towards the end of the draft, assuming you are drafting with reasonable people (Most of my leagues have that one dude who rosters a few QBs because he is terrible and should be kicked out).

Boxplot of Quarterback Points at the End of the Year

Weekly Changes in Points

Oh boy, take a look at that thing of beauty below. The median score of most quarterbacks is similar--it’s stunning. You can also see (in general) the boxes are similar as well, with the top guys showing more upside and less downside. I feel like this could lead to a viable strategy of streaming (picking players up to play each week), especially if you like a particular matchup. If you think you have a 50/50 shot of getting between 10-20 points from any given QB, you can probably stream them each week and hope for the best.

weekly variance quarterback

Player Analysis in 2018

No PPR vs. Standard league opening needed here, let's dive right in.

quarterback performance in 2019

Let’s Look at Points Per Reception First Again

  • Mahomes was crazy last year

  • Matt Ryan presents what I figure he’ll perform next year--reliable and consistent fantasy performance.

  • Roethlisberger has an almost identical median value to Matt Ryan with lower upside (though he was likely bailed out by the ~39 point game)

  • Aaron Rodgers is almost as consistent as top WR, Davante Adams. See that analysis at the bottom of this post

  • Drew Brees’s scores were all over the place; I don’t have a good feel for what he has done in recent years (I could get that data so I might look into it later).

    • He’ll probably be fine, but his age is something I will consider going into next year.
    • In general, I prefer young players with upside over well established starters, it’s a more risky strategy but the preseason hope of a guy breaking out is too much for me to pass up.
  • I still have Lamar Jackson / Josh Allen PTSD from our models last year; I am going to avoid them at all costs. Their upside is really tantalizing, but the inconsistency is going to lose you games.
    • The statement above makes me a hypocrite (they are both young and have upside) but they aren’t that good.
  • Jared Goff’s scores confirm my earlier statement about him.
    • People either love or hate him, his scores are all over the place.

Quarterback Conclusion

In general, if I can’t get Mahomes, I’ll likely punt the QB position, which is my standard strategy. This strategy is also generally in-line with what the data from my WR and RB posts confirmed. Understanding where people are being drafted will help determine a specific player cutoff, but if I have to choose a number for the QB position, it’s 5. In general, Ryan and Luck present high-value players at a good price.