Hello, football fans! Welcome to your weekly newsletter, the ultimate guide for recapping the past week and making those all-important waiver wire decisions. Let's get started!
Note: Our recommendations are just one piece of your decision-making puzzle. If something doesn't pass your sniff test, let's hash it out in our Discord community. Also check us out at GridironAI.com where you can use the promo code PRESEASON50 for a month of our MVP subscription at 50% off.
Week 1 Recap
What We Got Right
Our projections exceeded industry averages, as illustrated below (lower bar = less errror):
Our DFS Aficianado Rob brought the heat this week with his optimal cash game lineups. It dominated most head to head matchups with users and was solid in 10-12 man pools. Here's the winning lineup: Make sure you are in our discord to get this lineup for week 2 along with a comprehensive spreadsheet with all of the players our projections like on the week. We are workign on getting these embedded in the site ASAP!
What We Got Wrong
Two of my main recommendations this week were Daniel Jones and Cam Akers. We were incredibly high on both, but they underperformed. While our models have limitations, your input can help us improve. For a detailed breakdown, read on.
Daniel Jones had a disastrous 40-0 loss to the Cowboys, and Cam Akers played second fiddle to Kyren Williams. We were on the right track with the Rams lead back against a weak Seahawks Run Defense, but we had the lead back wrong. This is a tough problem to solve with modeling alone. However, there were preseason reports from Jordan Rodrigue suggesting Kyren Williams as the lead guy. As for Daniel Jones, the draft capital spent on him was low enough that you can weather the storm. I personally wouldn't blame you for dropping him, but he faces the Cardinals next week, who should be much less of a hindrance than the Cowboys D. I will likely hold and start Daniel Jones in the leagues where I have him.
Waiver Wire Recommendations
The Art and Science of Waiver Wire Decisions
In the early weeks, projection models lack sufficient data for reliable recommendations. Waiver wire decisions thus require a blend of art and data science. Here's a quick overview of my process:
Wisdom of the Crowd: I start by referencing the add/drop table from nfl.com. This narrows down our options based on collective wisdom.
Team Assessment: Next, evaluate your roster's strengths and weaknesses. Questions to consider:
- Where am I reliably scoring points?
- Where are my points less reliable?
Opponent Analysis: Gauge what your league mates might do. The nfl.com table can also hint at how much FAAB others might bid.
Where you bid within the recommended range depends on your answers to these questions. For QBs and TEs, the FAAB recommendations are one tier lower.
Table Column Definitions
- Player: The name of the player.
- Position: The position the player plays.
- Adds/Drops: The number of adds or drops for the player.
- FAAB Budget: The recommended percentage of your FAAB budget to bid for the player. The range is provided to allow flexibility based on your specific needs and strategy.
- Use High Waiver Priority: Indicates whether the player is worth a high waiver priority.
- Notes: Additional information about the player.
Popular Adds
| Player | Team | Opp | Position | Adds | FAAB Budget | Use High Waiver Priority | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA | SF | WR | 297,137 | 25-35% | Yes | Solid rookie Prospect, Lead WR in Kupp's absence |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | GB | RB | 150,370 | 25-35% | Yes | Goal line role, even with Bijan there |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | MIN | RB | 47,204 | 25-35% | Yes | Clear lead back on NFC's best offense, MIN Def is bad |
| Kyren Williams | LA | SF | RB | 106,665 | 15-25% | Yes | Emerging as the lead back over Akers, size concerns |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | TEN | RB | 99,463 | 15-25% | Yes | Ekeler banged up, huge upside if he sits |
| Hunter Henry | NE | MIA | TE | 89,492 | 10-15% | No | at worst 2nd option in a better NE offense |
| Justice Hill | BAL | CIN | TE | 32,314 | 15-20% | No | Lead back in Dobbin's absence, good preseason, could sign a vet |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | CIN | RB | 87,439 | 5-10% | No | likely 1b in baltimore |
| Hayden Hurst | CAR | NO | TE | 60,012 | 5-10% | No | could be number 1 or 2 option for Bryce young |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | QB | 50,874 | 5-10% | No | Has an actual offensive coordinator now |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | BUF | WR | 48,801 | 25-35% | Yes | Concussion protocol, but a favorite target of Jimmy G, if hes avaialble in your leage go get him |
| Jordan Love | GB | ATL | QB | 46,722 | 5-10% | No | Looked good despite injury to Watson |
Popular Drops
| Player | Team | Opp | Position | Drops | Drop or Hold | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | DAL | QB | 158,405 | Drop | Season Ending Injury |
| J.K. Dobbins | BAL | CIN | RB | 129,498 | Drop | Season Ending Injury |
| Deon Jackson | IND | HOU | RB | 60,024 | Drop | Zach Moss is back, not very good |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | CIN | TE | 54,607 | Drop | Mark Andrews likely to return |
| Antonio Gibson | WAS | DEN | RB | 32,886 | Hold | Dissapointing role, but due to fumble and being put in the doghouse |
| Skyy Moore | KC | JAX | WR | 31,375 | Hold | KC needs to figure it out at WR, wait and see |
| Greg Dulcich | DEN | WAS | TE | 29,818 | Drop | Injured, stash on IR if you can, otherwise move on |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | DET | RB | 26,085 | Hold | Big time upside if Walker gets hurt, but clear number 2 instead of a 1b situation |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | CLE | WR | 25,987 | Hold | should miss at least 2 games, find a way to hold on |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | IND | TE | 25,620 | Hold | low floor, low ceiling, drop for any of the tight end adds above |
Conclusion
That wraps up our Week 1 recap and waiver wire recommendations. Remember, these are guidelines to aid your decision-making process. Feel free to adjust the FAAB percentages as you see fit. Join us in our Discord community for real-time discussions and updates. Also check us out at GridironAI.com where you can use the promo code PRESEASON50 for a month of our MVP subscription at 50% off. Thanks for reading!