NFL 2019 Week 9 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · October 30, 2019

This post will cover the week five rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Mahomes might have a “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory; it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Aaron Rodgers </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 30.1 </td> <td> 31.3 </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 26.7 </td> <td> 31.3 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> 28.6 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Lamar Jackson </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 25.1 </td> <td> 30.3 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 27.6 </td> <td> 23.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Russell Wilson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kirk Cousins </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 24.0 </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacoby Brissett </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> 26.2 </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Gardner Minshew II </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> 25.7 </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 23.5 </td> <td> 37.4 </td> <td> 23.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 34.9 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 30.7 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 29.9 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 29.4 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> 29.3 </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 27.4 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> 26.5 </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> 23.0 </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jordan Howard </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 23.2 </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> 30.4 </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 27.8 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> 24.2 </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> 23.9 </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> 22.5 </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 19.1 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jordan Howard </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 21.1 </td> <td> 29.8 </td> <td> 21.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> 28.6 </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 27.6 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sterling Shepard </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 26.0 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 26.1 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Gallup </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Amari Cooper </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 24.9 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Courtland Sutton </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 11.1 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 11.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sterling Shepard </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Gallup </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Amari Cooper </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Courtland Sutton </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 24.4 </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 16.2 </td> <td> 24.7 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 19.7 </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Fells </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.8 </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 8.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Fells </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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