"All models are wrong; some models are useful." - George Box
Shoutout to Discord user vtgreg for this awesome quote.
Introduction
Welcome back to The Lab at Gridiron AI. We consistently outperform mainstream projections by an average of one point. This marginal edge, when applied consistently, can turn the tide in your favor.
Fantasy football isn't just a numbers game—it's a fine tuned blend of game theory and data science. Sure, you could rely solely on projections, but where's the fun in that? This article aims to offer a more nuanced approach to your weekly fantasy football decisions. The purpose of this article is to address the types of players that are especially uncertain and are decisions that are difficult for any model or human to make. Our model depends heavily on a predicted snap count. Being on the field increases your chances of socring fantasy points. Period. In situtations where predicting the snap count is difficult, our model will struggle. These areas are the areas where this is difficult:
- Players coming off the waiver due to surprising roles or injuries to teammates
- Injured players that may see their snap count decrease
- Rookies that could see their snap count increase at any moment. There is also a sample size issue here as we have very little NFL data on them.
Waiver Report
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| Player | Team | Opp | Position | Suggested FAAB Budget | Week 2 Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA | SF | WR | 25-35% | 9.4 |
| Kyren Williams | LA | SF | RB | 15-25% | 4.6 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | TEN | RB | 15-25% | 4.5 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | MIA | TE | 10-15% | 7.9 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | CIN | RB | 10-15% | 6.1 |
| Hayden Hurst | CAR | NO | TE | 5-10% | 7.7 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | CIN | RB | 15-20% | 2.9 |
Kyren Williams & Cam Akers
Kyren Williams is not projecting well despite him clearly being the lead guy when it mattered against the Seahawks. This is somewhat surpising, but McVay was enthusiastic about Williams and the presaon. Akers i sprojected for 12.3 Points. The gap between the two is too big and I wouldn't blame you for flipping their expected points.
Justice Hill & Gus Edwards
J.K. Dobbins season-ending Achilles injury creates an opportunity for others. Our projections favor Gus Edwards, but Justice Hill showed promise in the passing game.
Joshua Kelley
Kelley's 48% snap share and Ekeler's absence make him a smart FAAB spend. Start with confidence.
Puka Nacua
He had an impressive 15 targets in his debut and is a recommended start. Our model is already in love with this guy at 9.4 expected fantasy points.
Hayden Hurst & Hunter Henry
Pick up either Hurst or Henry. They're on the cusp of TE1 status based on current usage.
Injury Report - Adjust Projections Accordingly
| Player | Exp Points |
|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 10.9 |
| Deandre Swift | 4.5 |
| Jakobi Myers | 10.3 |
| Davante Adams | 12.4 |
| Deandre Hopkins | 11.4 |
| Darren Waller | 7.5 |
| Christian Watson | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 10.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 12.2 |
Situations to Monitor
Kenny Gainwell & Deandre Swift
Start Swift with confidence. Although Gainwell is out, Swift's expected points are low at 4.5. Based on current factors, Swift's expectations could be boosted up to the 10-point range.
Jakobi Myers & Davante Adams
Myers is in the concussion protocol and is likely to miss the next game. Adams should play and is expected to have a monster day if Myers is out.
Deandre Hopkins
High ankle worries make his playtime uncertain. Although he returned to practice, Tannehill's poor performance last week makes anyone other than Burks and Chig a risky option. Start Burks confidently in Hopkins' absence.
Darren Waller
Dealing with a nerve injury and not optimistic given his age. Consider other options like Hunter Henry or Hayden Hurst for now.
Christian Watson
Seems to be trending in the right direction but not looking good for this week.
Reason for Optimism: Good News for Scary Terry and Travis Kelce
Full Practice Optimism for Scary Terry
Terry McLaurin is expected to have a full practice and we have him for 10.5 expected points.
Deep Breath: Kelce Gets Back in the Groove
Travis Kelce returns to practice and was seen doing the cool hip bump thing you do with your boys after scoring a point in spike ball. He should be good to go this week with 12.2 expected points.
Rookie RB/WR Report
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos. | Opp. | Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | @CIN | 9.5 |
| 108 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | GB | 9.2 |
| 140 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | @PHI | 7.6 |
| 166 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | @ATL | 6.6 |
| 194 | Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | WAS | 5.1 |
| 258 | Jahmyr Gibbs | Team | RB | SEA | 3.1 |
| 314 | Quentin Johnson | Team | WR | @TEN | 2.7 |
Zay Flowers
Zay's 9.5 expected points is the highest among rookies. His low aDot and gadgety usage are concerns, but he is clearly ahead of Bateman, boosting our confidence in this projection. Note that the model also favors Odell Beckham with 9.8 expected points.
Jordan Addison
Jordan Addison's expected points stand at 7.6, making him a solid option this week. While he had a strong debut, be cautious as KJ Osborne played ahead of him in 2 WR sets. The situation might change as the season progresses.
Quentin Johnson
Quentin Johnson's 2.7 expected points are disappointing. Currently, he is WR4 behind Josh Palmer but should see more action as the season progresses or if other wideouts get injured. Hold for now.
Marvin Mims and Jayden Reed
Both are projected for under 7 points this week. Their poor performances in the absence of higher-ranked veterans suggest it might be time to move on from these non-1st round prospects.
Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson's debut caught our model's attention with 9.2 expected points. Tyler Allgeir is clearly the number 2 with 6.7 expected points.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs is projected at a modest 3.1 expected points. Despite this, his dynamic play suggests an upward trend in usage and outlook in the Lions' offense.
Around the League
WTF Falcons
Drake London still has a healthy projection of 10 points. Kyle Pitts is hanging in there; the air yards will materialize eventually. Hold the line for now.
Breece Rocket Ship
We project Breece for 10.3 expected points. He showed promise in his debut and should see increased volume as he gets healthier and gains the coaching staff's trust. In contrast, Dalvin Cook's expected points are a low 4.3 due to declining efficiency.
Daniel Jones
We are still very high on Daniel Jones. May the God's of variance bless us. We have him for 13.7 points agains the pathetic Cardinals.
Conclusion
Today we've integrated data-driven forecasting with game theory to give you a multi-faceted fantasy football strategy. Have a different take? Join our Discord channel to share your insights.