What is the Point of This Article?
I want to call this dumpster diving for guys but doesn't match the words I ended up writing. I created a poorly named metric: fantasy point per opportunity. My goal is to try to find players who generate the most fantasy points based on their potential touches (reception targets, passing attempts, and rushing attempts). This metric might already be called something else on ESPN/CBS/Rotogrinders etc so I apologize if it's not the official name.
About the Graphs Below
In the graphs below, you’ll see the top 15 players at the offensive skill positions, based on the metric outlined above, for 2016/2017/2018. The labels on the points are the ending position rank for the player.
I set a minimum of 100 fantasy points scored for the player to be included.
How Will This Help Me?
I don’t have a scientific answer for you. I am going to use this to find players that would benefit the most from an increased role and draft a few of them as lottery tickets/handcuffs.
Quarterbacks!
- I include QBs out of curiosity around Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
- My thinking is if they get fewer touches (aka don’t run as much) they likely will have fewer fantasy points (not making a bold statement there).
I find it interesting that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are very close to each other
- I feel like Lamar Jackson is better than Josh Allen, but it appears they generate fantasy points at the same rate so Lamar Jackson is benefitting from more attempts.
Two years ago, Carson Wentz was putting on a show, if he can return to that level of production per attempt, he could be a top asset.
For 2018, I am surprised to see Mahomes so close to the pack, I feel like he was a monster, and every play was TD. I don’t think it affects my position on him as the best player overall but if they run it more, his value takes a hit.
Running Backs
Damien Williams (not graphed, he had under 100 pts) is a potential value target this year. His current ADP is ~30.48. Carlos Hyde might take some touches away from him, but I looked at his score, 1.41 would put him as the most efficent player. Damien Williams makes the most of what opportunities he gets.
- Damien WIlliams had an efficiency of 1.41 in 2018 which would have him as number 1.
Duke Johnson also stands out. He is now on a team that might play him more. His current ADP is ~118. Bill O’Brien did say he is an every-down back. Note - he isn't going to be an every-down back in Houston due to Lamar Miller's presence. Could be a good flyer though!
I have a love affair with Kenyan Drake; I wish he weren’t hurt.
Honorable Chris Thompson mention for PPR leagues. He’s coming back from an injury and won’t be the RB1 when he comes back if he ends up getting touches similar to previous seasons, he could be a value.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett hype is real if he can keep up the pace.
Will Fuller is going ADP 86, right around Robby Anderson, Sammy Wakins, and Dante Pettis (see below), I think I’d rather have Fuller (even if he is injury prone)
Kenny Stills has an appearance in 2016 and 2018. He’s currently listed at the top of the Dolphin’s depth chart. Ryan Fitzpartick also makes an appearance on the QB graphs, which increase my hype. Kenny Stills has an ADP of 147.
- As of CBS reporting on August 19th, it looks like Rosen is competing for the starting job, which isn't as appealing to me.
Dante Pettis was efficient last year. His ADP this year (2019) is 87. He is at the top of the depth chart for WR.
- It is important to note, SF just drafted two WR with early picks. I’d keep an eye on his preseason performance and final depth charts. Rookie performance is hard to predict, and I have projections for his competiton in the article below. -Rookie Projections
Tight Ends
O.J Howard wouldn’t qualify as a sleeper, and his ADP of 61 means you have to pay for him. His ADP is right around Tarik Cohen, Tyler Boyd, Lamar Miller, James White, all of whom I’d probably want over him.
- I think he is the last stop before Blackholeville appears on the horizon.
Just because you see Blackholeville, doesn’t mean you are going to arrive at that destination (at least when the rose-colored glasses of pre-football being played upside players are put on). Mark Andrews is also intriguing at ADP 121. He is relying on Lamar Jackson to get him the ball, which adds risk but appears to be efficient when he gets targets. If you are punting TE, I would probably target him as the last man up.
Trey Burton gets an honorable mention, but he is hurt and has questionable talent.
Housekeeping!
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