We don’t know which rookies will do well(no one does); a lot depends on playing time and injuries. You should take these rankings and use them as a way to gauge potential skill, then keep an eye on depth charts and who has the most unobstructed path to playing time. In the table below, we’ve included the current depth chart rank in our dataset to help add some context. We will try to update this again before the season starts to reflect the current depth chart.
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How To Interpret the Rankings - Redraft
For leagues where you redraft your entire team each year, assume these season projections are indicative of how each player would do if they were a started in every game. For most QBs, this is not going to be the situation--most of the time their first start in the middle of the season, if at all. We are not trying to guess at playing time. If you're drafting for this year, playing time is the #1 factor, so our recommended strategy is to make a list of players you believe will get lots of playing time (it's a guessing game for everyone) and use our projected points to help you weight the pros and cons of each. Upside potential will reveal itself in the long term (which is what our points are trying to project), but it may take a few games or even a season for us to see that upside because of coaching, depth chart, etc.
How To Interpret the Rankings - Dynasty
For fantasy leagues where you get to hold on to a set of players each year, future playing time is still important, but upside potential plays a larger role. For non-starters, the rankings provide a glimpse into their upside if they become starters. Sometimes in dynasty leagues you want to draft someone who will benefit you at the end of the season or in future seasons to come. If you're in this type of league, you should consider the points as indicative of upside and base your decision mostly on that.
Other Articles and Stuff
Some of the recent articles are found below:
- Click me to go to the top 50 fantasy rankings for each position
- Click me to go to Running Back Performance Article
- Click me to go to Wide Receiver Performance Article
- Click me to go to Quarterback Performance Article
- Click me to go to Tight End Performance Article
A Quick Disclaimer
This is my first ever post on rookies and admittedly, this is one of the fantasy football topics I am least comfortable adding context on. I feel like most rookies playing times are a wild guess (with known exceptions for top picks at skill positions). If anyone wants to contribute some commentary or write a different post, feel free to reach out at info@gridironai.com or Slack.
Model Evaluation
I wrote an article about the performance of the model and how we evaluate if it's good or not.
Quarterback Rankings
Murray is starting Haskins is not, our projections are merely stating Haskins probably has slightly higher upside based on our model. Since Murray is starting, he has higher value in DFS and redraft leagues.
I think the rest of the QBs are ignorable in redraft leagues. For leagues with large rosters and a lot of teams, maybe you take a flier, but none of the other QBs are worthy of picks in most leagues given current depth chart assumptions.
QBs generally have the highest upside for points if they become starters because they will touch the ball the most. If you want to bank on an injury to a starting QB or if you think public sentiment about a certain players expected playing time is wrong, QB would be a good position to do it.
Wide Receiver Rankings
Jalen Hurd and Deebo Samuel are both intriguing options this year. I just looked at the WRs on the SF roster and it’s not good so both could step in and get opportunities right away.
Marquise Brown is fast. I think his value rides on how well Lamar Jackson progresses as a passer.
I like N’Keal Harry, especially if they don’t cut his hair. Article About His Hair.
Running Back Rankings
Josh Jacobs needs to get a majority of carries to be fantasy relevant--he has the skill to be that guy, but only the coaches can determine his full fantasy value. The upside is definitely there, though.
Justice Hill is getting a lot of sleeper hype this year. He has been on some podcasts talking about getting involved in the passing game. He’s being blocked by Mark Ingram, so maybe he’ll be a Duke Johnson type barring an injury?
Devin Singletary needs a path to a majority of snaps to be draftable. I think the Eagles were linked to McCoy this offseason (before getting Jordan Howard) so maybe the Bills will trade McCoy to some other team.
Tight End Rankings
- To be honest, I would have to google some of these guys to figure out what analysis to add so I’ll spare you the half-assed attempt.
Questions/Feedback
If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on in our Slack Channel. Click here to join: PLEASE CLICK ME, WE LOVE TO TALK.