Through 2 weeks of play, the 2024 NFL Season has been defined by sloppy play and unexpected outcomes. As the trends start to show themselves, fantasy matchups stop being defined by a few lucky “boom” players and leagues begin to be dominated by the savviest managers. And that’s where we come in. By combining past results with the fantasy football algorithms of Gridiron AI, let’s look at what players are must-starts and must-sits in their Week 3 matchups.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) @ New Orleans Saints
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.6
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 7
The data simply doesn’t support believing in the 2-0 Saints after just two, admittedly impressive performances. The main weakness is their pass defense, which didn't have to fire against an awful Panthers offense, but did show cracks against Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. And their rush defense may be flashy, at 3rd in the league (63 opp ypg), but that has been against Chubba Hubbard and Ezekiel Elliott. Now they have to face the Eagles' rushing attack, led by a surging Saquon Barkley, and Jalen Hurts who returned to form last Monday, rushing for 85 yards and a touchdown against a great Atlanta defense. Add to that his solid passing night while missing AJ Brown, and he seems like the most reasonable start among the league’s dual-threat quarterbacks.
Hurts has struggled with turnovers all the way through last season, and the Saints defense has taken the ball away 5 times, but Gridiron AI still sees Hurts’ upside as too good to pass on, giving him a projected score of 14.6 points and an upside of 27.8 points this week.
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Gridiron AI projected points: 16.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Daniels has just teased his ceiling through two games, but his situation and need to use his legs has made him a surprisingly consistent fantasy option. Even though it was against the Giants, the rookie still showed solid steps forward, completing 79.3% of his passes and not throwing an interception. The biggest reason for Daniels’ upcoming success is Cincinnati’s porous run defense. Against a Chiefs team that doesn’t prioritize the run, the Bengals gave up 149 yards and 4.7 yards per carry. Patrick Mahomes carried the rock 4 times for 29 yards, and Daniels has already shown that he’s eager to run and can score while doing it.
Even if he takes a step back, Daniels has averaged 22.2 fantasy points so far. Gridiron AI does have him looking less efficient against a solid, not great Bengals squad, although he is still projected to be QB3 and to score 16.7 points, with the highest ceiling of any Week 3 QB, at 34.7 points.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots) @ New York Jets
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 6
Rhamondre Stephenson is off to one of the hottest starts of the year, along with a Patriots squad that is probably too good to be true, but who has been frisky and dangerous through two weeks. Stephenson’s 100+ yards per game is arguably the biggest piece to that success, and now he faces a Jets defense that had trouble on the ground against Tony Pollard and the Titans. The Jets allowed over 4.6 yards per carry against a much weaker team, so win or lose, Rhamondre is a sharp play this week.
Because of the matchup with the Jets and Stephenson touching the ball almost 55% of the time through his last 3 starts, our AI model expects him to produce as the RB6 this week, scoring a median projection of 14.8 points.
Jerome Ford (Cleveland Browns) vs New York Giants
Gridiron AI projected points: 10.3 (upside 19.2)
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 29
Yes, this play is 90% because it’s against the Giants. But is that so wrong? The Giants finally managed to move the ball on offense last week against Washington and still managed to embarrass themselves. They allowed 215 yards on the ground just a week after giving Aaron Jones a nearly 100-yard day, and the Browns run the ball better than any of New York’s prior opponents.
Cleveland hasn’t run the ball a ton this season, largely because of their attempts to get back in the game against Dallas, but Jerome Ford has still been incredibly effective. Through 2 weeks, he’s getting 5.5 yards per carry and already broke out a few big plays against the Jaguars last week. Against a weak Giants team who will give the Browns lots of offensive time of possession, expect Jerome Ford to pound the rock and score big on sheer volume.
Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) vs San Francisco 49ers
Gridiron AI projected points: 15.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
The Rams are in a tough spot. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both down with injuries, and Demarcus Robinson isn’t exactly any team’s pick for WR1 going forward. So the weight of the offense must lay on the shoulders of the last surviving bell-cow back, Kyren Williams. The Rams run game struggled last week after losing two O-Linemen to injury, but they were also against a divisional opponent who had too much momentum for Los Angeles to establish a run game. Against a 49ers team who hasn’t stopped shooting themselves in the foot, they should get a better opportunity.
After Cooper Kupp left last weekend’s game with an injury, Williams got 9 more touches (targets + rushes), which went for 37 yards and a touchdown. The starters were pulled toward the end of the game, so the stats didn’t get any larger, but the signs were there that the LA offense will go back to running through the run. The 49ers have been middle of the pack, allowing the 16th most points to running backs in PPR leagues, and with increased touches, especially in the passing game, Williams is looking to spike this week.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) vs Carolina Panthers
Gridiron AI projected points: 15
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
Starting superstar wide receivers against the Panthers seems simple enough, but after the week Adams just had, even his shaky quarterback situation can’t stop him from being a must-start. Adams scared his managers in Week 1, only catching 5 passes for 59 yards, but returned to form in Vegas’ upset of Baltimore, catching 9 of 12 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown.
Against the Panthers - who have allowed 8 catches for 124 yards and 3 TDs to opponents’ top wideouts - Adams is in a position to explode like he did last week. Those Carolina numbers were hampered by the Panthers getting hammered on the ground, but Vegas doesn’t have a star rusher like JK Dobbins or Alvin Kamara, so targets should go back to the air on 2nd and 3rd downs.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals) vs Washington Commanders
Gridiron AI projected points: 10.3 (upside 19)
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 32
The Bengals have deeply disappointed both fans and fantasy teams this season (Unless you got a hot tip on playing Andrei Iosivas last week), but they’re in a position to finally gain some momentum and right the ship. And although the Commanders are certainly a rising team with a solid defense, they did just provide tape of an LSU superstar receiver gashing them along the outside boundaries. Malik Nabers, in just his second career game, went for 127 yards and a touchdown against Washington, dominating target share with 18 passes thrown at him versus 9 to other Giants.
Now, Ja’Marr Chase can’t expect to see that many targets, especially with Tee Higgins potentially returning from injury, but his targets are set to increase against a Washington team with a much weaker defense than Cinci saw last week against Kansas City. The Commanders might also be missing Emmanuel Forbes, the only big-name CB on their roster, meaning Chase could have just a few solid looks that he turns into big plays.
Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Gridiron AI projected points: 9.8 (upside 18.2)
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 41
Shakir is a speedster. Jacksonville has been eviscerated by speedsters through two weeks. Start Shakir. It may be as simple as that, but let’s look deeper. Against the Jaguars, Tyreek Hill went for 130 yards and a TD, Jaylen Waddle caught just 5 balls for 109 yards, and Jerry Jeudy returned to NFL action with 73 yards on a new team with a mediocre quarterback. Jacksonville is third-to-last in the NFL in passing yards allowed, so you can really start a Bills target of your choice. Shakir is just our pick for leading his team in both targets and receptions.
While he isn’t projected to be a WR1 by any means, our model still respects Shakir’s 0% drop rate this season, and his yards per catch are still ticking back up toward his numbers from the past two years. Against a weak Jacksonville defense, Shakir should be able to feast, so Gridiron AI has his upside at 18.2 points for Week 3.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders) vs Carolina Panthers
Gridiron AI projected points:
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 2
Brock Bowers has arrived. And he looks better than advertised, sooner than he should. Against a Ravens linebacking group led by Roquan Smith, Bowers hauled in all 9 of his targets for 98 yards, keeping him 3rd in Tight End receiving yards through 2 games. Bowers will have to contend with Shaq Thompson on the inside, but the rookie has shown an ability to catch anywhere from the backfield to down the sidelines, so don’t worry about him being shut down.
Betting against the Panthers seems like the most sure thing in what has been a crazy football season so far, and Bowers seems set to be this week’s biggest beneficiary of that trend. The Gridiron AI model projects the rookie to be the 2nd best Tight End in the NFL in Week 3, expected to score 11.8 points, right on his career average, but with an upside of 21.8 points, should he find himself open a few too many times.
Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs LAC
Gridiron AI projected points: 8.3 (upside 15.1)
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
Freiermuth has disappointed through his first pair of games, but is due for a solid performance after signing a hefty contract extension. Both of the Chargers’ opponents through Week 2 have had their tight end near the top of the receiving box score. Thanks to a solid pass rush and good outside coverage, quarterbacks are forced to work the middle of the field, which is where Freiermuth will be doing his best to support a rising Justin Fields.
Tight ends breaking through a revitalized Chargers D isn’t exactly a sure thing or a “boom” play, hence Freiermuth landing at our model’s TE10 spot (projected score: 8.3 points). But as a solid starter with touchdown upside thanks to LA limiting George Pickens, Freiermuth is a solid tight end play.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) @ Los Angeles Rams
Gridiron AI projected points: 12.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 18
The 49ers didn’t look like themselves against the Vikings for the 2nd straight season. Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel are both out for multiple weeks. Most importantly, though, the defense isn’t creating as many short-field opportunities for Brock Purdy, and the pressure seems to be getting to him. As a pocket passer, the air stats are everything, and Purdy’s have been nothing special. 275 yards per game is alright, but only one passing touchdown on the year and a bad interception versus the Vikings doesn’t inspire hope. He’s also already taken 8 sacks, which should scare fantasy managers enough to look for another quality option at QB.
Purdy is by no means washed, and could still turn his season around, but he is faced this week with a divisional rival in the Rams who he may be 1-0 against as a starter, but who held him to 206 passing yards and one touchdown through the air last season. In that game, two of their touchdowns came from players who won’t be on the field this time around, and Purdy hasn’t shown the ability to thrive without a full deck. Gridiron AI sees him as QB18 this week, with a projected score of just 12.8 points.
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) @ Arizona Cardinals
Gridiron AI projected points: 12.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
Dan Campbell blamed the Lions' loss to the Buccaneers in Week 2 on himself, but that doesn’t mean Goff should get off scot-free. Through 2 weeks, the Lions have looked incredible defensively and shown major growth on offense, but Goff has shown serious signs of decline. 3 interceptions through 2 games is brutal, and just 1 passing touchdown is horrendous when you look at him attempting more than 40 passes per game. Against a team in the Cardinals who have sacked opposing quarterbacks 7 times and forced fumbles in both of their games this season.
Goff looks like the best quarterback with the best weapons that the Cardinals have faced this season, but even if he plays well, the Lions' game plan, especially in the Red Zone, is so run-game-dependent that it’s unclear how he can make his fantasy hay. Our model places Goff at QB 20 this week, not a starter on any roster in Week 3.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings) vs Houston Texans
Gridiron AI projected points: 13.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 13
The Vikings have shocked the world through two games, and Jones has looked solid, but there are some teams you just can’t start a running back against. The Texans are one of those teams this season. Houston has allowed the 3rd fewest total yards in the league (254) per game, and have only allowed 87.5 yards per game after being 6th in rush defense last season. Last Sunday against the Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams was the only effective rusher, with every other Bear being held to 37 yards on 17 carries.
Jones has looked great, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with a touchdown, but he was stifled against the 9ers last week, and should have an equal or harder time against DeMeco Ryans’ defense. Add to that the fact that Ty Chandler overtook him in rushes last week, and this game could be telling about Jones’ future roster-ability.
Ezekiel Elliott & Rico Dowdle (Dallas Cowboys) vs Baltimore Ravens
Gridiron AI projected points: Rico - 7.4, Zeke - 6
Gridiron AI positional ranking: Rico - 33, Zeke - 37
The Cowboys' run game looks as mediocre as ever, but some fantasy managers are holding on hope that either Zeke or Rico will define themselves as a solid Flex option as early-season injuries rack up. Unfortunately for those managers, this is NOT the week that that will happen. Neither back has impressed so far, both averaging just 28 rushing yards per game and Rico leading the pair with 29 rushing yards. And now the Cowboys have to face a Ravens unit that has allowed just 49.5 rushing yards per game.
Part of the Ravens’ numbers are certainly because of the weak rushing attacks they’ve faced in the first two weeks, but Zeke and Rico are not the backs that are going to expose a flaw.
J.K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Gridiron AI projected points: 6.5
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 36
This sit has nothing to do with Dobbins playing poorly or having an injury history; it has everything to do with the Steelers having this coaching staff's number. Mike Tomlin went 5-3 against the Ravens when Greg Roman was their offensive coordinator, winning 5 of the last 6 before Roman was replaced with Todd Monken. And as good as the Chargers offense has looked, the Steelers defense has looked better. They’re 5th in the league in both rushing yards allowed AND total yards allowed.
Dobbins has made an early push for Comeback Player of the Year, with back-to-back 100+ rushing yard games, but now he has to face a Steelers defense that has only given him 1 touchdown in the 3 games they’ve seen him. He could still pop as a flex play, but JK is not a starting RB this week. Our model puts him at RB36 against the Steelers, with his ceiling peaking out at 12.4 points.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins) @ Seattle Seahawks
Gridiron AI projected points: 13.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 9
It hurts to sit such a pedigreed receiver, especially this early in the season, but Hill is not in a position to succeed against Seattle this week. Through two weeks as the head coach, defensive guru Mike Macdonald has allowed a TOTAL of 6 catches for 50 yards and 1 touchdown to his opponents’ #1 receiver (Ja’Lynn Polk-NE, Courtland Sutton-DEN). Add to that the current QB situation in Miami, and there is no reason to start any Dolphins player, especially not the ones that Seattle knows they need to shut down for an easy win.
Our model still sees Hill as a top-tier wide receiver, with an average projection of 13.3 points because of his target share and YAC ability, but it also accounts for the Dolphins’s QB situation, showing his downside at just 4.1 points. That gap is too large for managers to feel safe starting Hill if they have a more reliable option.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona Cardinals) vs Detroit Lions
Gridiron AI projected points: 8.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 50
Telling anyone to sit MHJ after his “Welcome to the League” game last week is a risky proposal. But the Lions' defense is better than the Rams, especially at getting to the QB. Kyler had an average of more than 3 seconds to throw last week, while QBs against the Lions have had an average of 2.75 seconds. The pass rush should force fewer completions Harrison Jr’s way, but Brian Branch at safety is the piece that should really give the rookie problems. MHJ took 84% of his snaps out wide, which worked great against a Rams team without a star safety, but Branch is great at back end covering, so the Cardinals' game plan should look much more like Week 1 than Week 2.
James Connor and Trey McBride are still everyday starters in any league, but as Harrison Jr finds his footing in the league, it’s the right move to find spots like this to play more vested players over him.
Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gridiron AI projected points: 8.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 53
The main factor going against Sutton is the fact that he’s been largely locked up through the first 2 weeks, giving touches to Denver’s other top receivers, mainly Josh Reynolds. Through two weeks, Sutton has been targeted 16 times, but only caught 5 passes for 64 yards, and hasn’t scored yet. Now, he’s due for all of these, but not against a Bucs defense that played great without Antoine Winfield Jr. against a Lions offense that is much better than Denver’s unit. Winfield should be back this week and help take Sutton off the board once again.
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich (Denver Broncos) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gridiron AI projected points: 6.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 24
A tight end should be a rookie QB’s best friend. Instead, Greg Dulcich has faded into the background of Sean Payton’s Denver offense. Scoring only 3.2 fantasy points-per-game on average this year, there has been serious miscommunication between Dulcich and his new signal caller, with him getting targeted the 3rd most on his team, but leading Denver in drops and only averaging 14 yards per game. If he were a more serious threat to get into the end zone, his value could go up, but while we wait, the only Bronco worth playing in fantasy might be Javonte Williams.
The Bucs defense has been lethal against much better teams than the Denver Broncos. If you slap their performance against the Lions into a matchup with Denver, the Broncos might not score a point, and the model agrees, having Dulcich at Tight End 24 on the week. The upside is there, but it’s not worth the risk this week.
Colby Parkinson (Los Angeles Rams) vs San Francisco 49ers
Gridiron AI projected points: 5.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 27
Parkinson seemed like a smart play after the injury to Puka Nacua, and you would think that Cooper Kupp going down too would mean good things for his target share. Despite all this, he has disappointed and dropped all the way to Gridiron AI’s 27th tight end spot. Through 2 games, Parkinson has only been good for 6.2 points per game, well below most rostered tight ends and several on the waiver wire.
Parkison has been rough enough on his own, but now he has to play across the middle against Fred Warner, who is either the best or second-best linebacker in football (depending on who you ask) and who just made an insane turnover play last week that seems well within Stafford’s ability to force. The 9ers, through 2 games, have allowed a TOTAL of 3 catches for just 18 yards to tight ends, and although that has been done against players worse than Colby, the gap isn’t that large. He’s just not worth any upside plays this week.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week, for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here: https://gridironai.com/football/info/subscriptions