NFL 2019 Week 1 Projections - Top 10 at Each Position

By Andy Troiano · September 03, 2019

This post will cover the week one rankings generated by our models. I don’t currently have rookie projections for week 1. This is a function of different data requirements and our offseason priority to build out Pick’em projections. Rookies will be in for Week 2.

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This article will show the top 10 at each position. If you register for a free account, you are able to see these in a sortable table with added stats (points last 3 games, snap count last 3 games, etc). Our free plans also contain FanDuel and Draftkings scoring (in addition to PPR and STD).

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Week 1 Pick'Ems

Check out our week 1 Pick'Em suggestions here

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. It takes a significant amount of time to add commentary. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

The time it took to add commentary is going to be reinvested in new features/projections (like Pick’Em / Prob of Beating Projections) that will help you win.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data. In the coming weeks, I will analyze the most significant spreads between our projections and projections from other sites. At the time of writing, we are not able to get our hands on other sites' week one projections.

We have a rank of the risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below the graphs, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. These rankings will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Week 1, Watson has “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they score close to their max potential each week.

My goal is to get the probability of a player obtaining a range of scores, which will help us understand the potential outcomes.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory, it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player
  • Upside Points - Upside point opportunity for a player
  • Downside Points - Downside point risk for a player
  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the player's position
  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the player's position

QB

Week 1, the QB downside points are little low, it is basically saying their risk is the chance they get injured because QBs have a pretty low floor. If I have time, our most recent downside models reflect accurate projections, it’s just not in our ranking application at this time.

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 33.2 </td> <td> 1.8 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 30.5 </td> <td> 4.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 34.5 </td> <td> 4.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tom Brady </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> 29.6 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ben Roethlisberger </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 36.2 </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 31.1 </td> <td> 3.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mitchell Trubisky </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> 33.0 </td> <td> 3.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cam Newton </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 27.3 </td> <td> 1.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Drew Brees </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 19.0 </td> <td> 31.0 </td> <td> 4.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Goff </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 18.9 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 4.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

  • LeSean McCoy’s presence on KC makes me nervous about Damien Williams
  • Bell is getting mad respect

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 24.0 </td> <td> 30.7 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Damien Williams </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 3.8 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Saquon Barkley </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 30.1 </td> <td> 9.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 26.5 </td> <td> 6.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 17.6 </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Devonta Freeman </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 2.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 7.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> 5.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> 26.7 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 23.9 </td> <td> 6.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 18.3 </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> 4.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Damien Williams </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 2.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Saquon Barkley </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 24.3 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 4.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Devonta Freeman </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 16.2 </td> <td> 1.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> 4.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 19.7 </td> <td> 3.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Joe Mixon </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 4.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 19.9 </td> <td> 26.9 </td> <td> 8.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> 27.9 </td> <td> 7.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Amari Cooper </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 25.8 </td> <td> 6.4 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> 8.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 7.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> T.Y. Hilton </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 26.2 </td> <td> 7.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 28.0 </td> <td> 8.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Odell Beckham Jr. </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 25.5 </td> <td> 6.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 12.9 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Amari Cooper </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 3.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 18.9 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 3.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> T.Y. Hilton </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 18.3 </td> <td> 3.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> 3.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 3.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Odell Beckham Jr. </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 3.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 25.2 </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 25.5 </td> <td> 7.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 5.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 4.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> O.J. Howard </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 3.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jack Doyle </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 3.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Njoku </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> 21.1 </td> <td> 3.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Delanie Walker </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 22.5 </td> <td> 3.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 3.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 3.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 2.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 7.9 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 2.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 7.8 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 1.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> O.J. Howard </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> 1.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jack Doyle </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 1.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Njoku </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 1.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Delanie Walker </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 1.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 1.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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