NFL Week 1 Pick'Em and Projected Points

By Andy Troiano · September 04, 2019

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Home Team Score
  • Away Team Score
  • Vegas Line
    • In general, this should track pretty closely to what Vegas is setting for a game.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes
  • Example - It doesn’t know Luck isn’t the starting QB for Indy anymore
  • Backtested results (below) are simulated from week to week predictions but this hasn’t been used in the wild yet.

Backtested Performance Results

Until I have time (and fully backtested results) to write a performance summary, below is the current backtested results, by season for the pickem predictions.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Season </th> <th> Predicted Correct </th> <th> Percent Correct </th> <th> Games Predicted </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 2009 </td> <td> 99 </td> <td> 0.63 </td> <td> 156 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2010 </td> <td> 113 </td> <td> 0.46 </td> <td> 245 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2011 </td> <td> 143 </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> 240 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2012 </td> <td> 132 </td> <td> 0.53 </td> <td> 247 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2013 </td> <td> 126 </td> <td> 0.52 </td> <td> 243 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2014 </td> <td> 151 </td> <td> 0.61 </td> <td> 249 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2015 </td> <td> 119 </td> <td> 0.59 </td> <td> 201 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2017 </td> <td> 88 </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> 155 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Vegas Line Predicted </th> <th> Predicted Winner </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 28 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> -4.1 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 1.9 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> -3.6 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> 2.0 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> 4.2 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> -7.1 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> -0.4 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> -9.8 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> -1.8 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> -11.3 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 30 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> -0.2 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 18 </td> <td> -2.7 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> -3.1 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 31 </td> <td> 14 </td> <td> -5.2 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> 13 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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