Introduction
Welcome back! We consistently outperform mainstream projections, and this week was no exception. Having slightly more accurate projections is a marginal edge, but when applied consistently, can turn the tide in your favor.
Fantasy football isn't just a numbers game—it's a fine-tuned blend of game theory and data science. The purpose of this article is to address the types of players that are especially uncertain and are decisions that are difficult for any model or human to make. Our model depends heavily on a predicted snap count. Being on the field increases your chances of scoring fantasy points. Period. In situations where predicting the snap count is difficult, our model will struggle. Players coming off the waiver wire and stepping into a new role is one of these situations. Let's dive in and provide some clarity.
Waiver Report
This week's waiver wire isn't quite the quality we saw last week. If you got Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, or Zack Moss, you likely came away very happy. If you're like me and got Josh Kelley before Austin Ekeler was ruled out, you were likely very disappointed. Oh well, on to week 3!
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| Player | Team | Opp | Position | Suggested FAAB Budget | Week 2 Expected Points | Use High Waiver Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | CLE | TEN | RB | 35-50% | 4.4 | Yes |
| Matt Breida | NYG | SF | RB | 20-30% | 1.7 | Yes if RB needy |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | ATL | WR | 20-25% | 5.1 | Yes if WR needy |
| Nico Collins | HOU | JAX | WR | 20-25% | 6.9 | Yes if WR needy |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | ATL | TE | 10-15% | 5.1 | No |
| Jordan Love | GB | NO | QB | 5-10% | 12 | No |
| Kareem Hunt | FA | N/A | RB | 5-10% | N/A | No |
Player Insights
Jerome Ford
Ford filled in after a gruesome injury to Nick Chubb's knee and showed his speed with a 70-yard run that ended at the 1. Ford will likely be the lead back for a good Cleveland Browns running game moving forward. Note, they could add another back from FA.
Matt Breida
Breida is slated to fill in for Saquon Barkley, who should miss a few weeks due to what the team is calling a "very low ankle sprain." Breida leaves much to be desired in terms of athleticism but should get plenty of volume.
Josh Reynolds
Reynolds had a monster game and is the clear #2 option in a high-powered Lions offense. He has been a teammate of Jared Goff's for 7 years and is perhaps the most underrated WR in the league right now.
Nico Collins
Another underrated WR is Nico Collins, who has the build and profile of a #1 WR. With a new QB in town, he has been really showing promise. I think we can view week 2 as a true breakout for Collins. Don't drag your feet on adding him if you need a solid WR option.
Sam LaPorta
LaPorta had a great showing; he is a clear part of this high-powered Lions offense even as a rookie.
Jordan Love
Love looks to be the real deal, and if you need to try something new at QB, you could do much worse than him.
Bonus: Kareem Hunt
Based on what I am seeing, it seems that if any back were to get signed this week, it would be Hunt. He was holding out for a situation like this where a few backs went down this week.
Note
Ford and Breida are good examples of the model not having the necessary information to boost their expected points to starter numbers. This is an issue we are trying to improve. If no one signs with either team this week, I would confidently bump both projections up into the 9-10 point range.
Conclusion
Good luck out there! By applying a blend of data science and game theory, you can maximize your chances of securing the players who will provide the most value to your team. So, make your bids wisely, and may the odds be ever in your favor.