Upsets were the theme of last week, from the Ravens coming back from a 10-point deficit to two blocked field goals for touchdowns, and the Broncos beating the Raiders for the first time since 2019, chaos rained down upon the NFL. Despite that, our predictions have only gotten more and more solid as the year has chugged along. This week, we are looking for trends to be slightly bucked, with lots of breakout games due to starter injuries and even more players on track to end touchdown droughts. Let’s take a look at this week’s fantasy matchups and see who you need to start, sit, and cross your fingers on this week.
Reminder that all numbers in this blog are for PPR leagues. Please use the Gridiron AI menu to set your league’s scoring settings.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields
- Gridiron AI projected points: 16.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Justin Fields hasn’t been an amazing investment for managers this season, but he has certainly shown some improvement. This week, against a Raiders team that just lost Christian Wilkins indefinitely, so long as Pittsburgh can keep Maxx Crosby from wrecking their game, Fields should be in great shape. The Raiders' pass defense is middle of the pack, and with George Pickens needing to prove himself after a lackluster Week 5, the Steelers’ pass game should finally be able to get going.
Gridiron AI not only loves the matchup but has also appreciated Fields’ fantasy-forward balance of safe passing and efficient rushing, even behind a weakened offensive line. Because of this, the model sees him as QB3 this week, worth an average of 16.3 points, worth a start over most options unless you have an extremely high-ceiling QB on your roster already.
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) @ New York Giants
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 12
Speaking of high-ceiling options, Joe Burrow was deadly last week, only outscored by Kirk Cousins, despite the game-losing interception. This week, he should expect several more opportunities to play safe, efficient ball against a Giants offense that coughs up the ball a lot, and a defense that is underrated, but still nothing special. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were back to being the top-tier weapons duo we knew them to be, and even Chase Brown and Mike Gesicki are emerging as solid pieces for Burrow to utilize.
The Bengals’ run game has been pitiful, but the YAC produced by Bengals receivers on checkdowns both propels Cinci down the field and pads Burrow’s stats. Joe Sheisty needs a bounce-back win to keep the Bengals in the mix, so expect big things from him on Sunday.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (New York Jets) vs Buffalo Bills
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
The arrival of Braelon Allen hasn’t decreased Breece Hall’s value at all, and the head coach-firing effect has a chance to be in full swing this weekend. Gridiron AI doesn’t account for such magical principles, but it does still see Hall as a top-10 back going into Week 6. The Bills are allowing 144 rushing yards per game, and while he has only averaged 3 yards per carry this season, he’s still been touching the ball about 17 times per game between rushes and catches, which should translate well against a Buffalo team that has been brutalized by James Conner, Derrick Henry, and the Texans rushing committee.
Hall has proven himself to be deadly against the Bills when he’s the center of attention, good for 127 yards in last year's season opener. Now, with Aaron Rodgers under center, he should still be good for 10+ carries, but should get extra value out of receptions as well.
Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers) vs Arizona Cardinals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
The Cardinals have one of the worst rush defenses in football, and Josh Jacobs has performed at a much higher level than expected. He’s averaging over 80 yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, and has been a solid emergency option in the passing game. With Jordan Love back, the Packers are ready for what could be a shootout against the Cardinals, and if they want to hold on to any lead they have, breaking down the Arizona defense with Jacobs up the middle is the best way to do so.
Jacobs is running the ball 18 times per game, and if he keeps that up against a Cardinals team allowing the same number of yards per attempt that Jacobs has been getting, this should be a fairly simple start for #8.
Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 12
Just like starting Justin Fields, Harris is set for a much better performance against a Raiders team missing their best run-stopper. With the QB situation in flux in Vegas and a dominant Pittsburgh defense, the Steelers will likely be looking to preserve a low-scoring lead throughout this game, meaning that Harris should be touching the ball a ton. Najee has been rushing the least efficiently in years, but he’s touching the ball more than ever, making up for it. He’s the Steelers' 4th leading receiver and their top rusher, with his roles even more magnified with the loss of Jaylen Warren. With the Raiders allowing 132 ground yards per game before losing Wilkins, Harris is going to feast, projected by Gridiron AI to be RB12 this week, worth around 13 points.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore (Chicago Bears) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 4
D.J. Moore returns to the top of our must-start list after dominating last week, going for 105 yards on just 5 catches and 2 touchdowns. While efficiency of that level shouldn’t be expected again, Moore now gets to line up against the worst pass defense in the NFL in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Caleb Williams has developed nicely in the softer part of his schedule, and even if you don’t believe in him long-term, you can certainly believe that he will continue to produce against the Jags.
Moore is the highest-ranked he’s been all season in our model, projected to be WR4 this week, with one of the highest upsides of the week, with a ceiling of 26 points. While Odunze and Kmet will still steal some targets from Moore, D.J. is ahead of the next-most-targeted Bear by 18 looks and has found the end zone more than anyone in Chicago this year. Can’t miss.
Stefon Diggs (Houston Texans) @ New England Patriots
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 14
With Nico Collins officially on IR, we should see more of what Stefon Diggs showed last weekend against the Bills over the next few weeks. Diggs was quiet to start the season but has averaged 17.5 PPR points per game over his last 3 games, averaging about 88 yards, but still hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. The Patriots have a sturdy pass defense, only surrendering 120 air yards per game, but the only time they’ve played a top-tier passing attack was against San Francisco, and they gave up almost 300 passing yards that day.
Outside speed was New England’s kryptonite last time they faced a Shanahan-style offense, so Tank Dell isn’t a bad start either, but Diggs is the no-doubt number 1 option going into this week, and he and Stroud demonstrated their connection last week. Look for Stefon to reassert his greatness this week after Drake Maye gives Houston a couple of extra possessions.
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) vs Washington Commanders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 23
This pick may cause some cognitive dissonance for those of you who follow Flowers closely, but stay with us for a second. Washington’s pass defense looks good on paper, but is carried by a good pass rush, which covers up its personnel weaknesses. Dan Quinn’s scheme has also done a lot of heavy lifting. Most of that gets negated against Lamar Jackson, so why not pick his favorite target to boom this week? A lot of you will cite Flowers’ inconsistency after having a bigger game through both of his professional seasons, but when matched up against either Benjamin St-Juste or rookie Mike Sainristil, Flowers should find himself either open or as a serious YAC threat for most of the matchup. Zay only has one touchdown on the year and is well overdue for another, so if you have room in your Flex spot, Flowers should fit right in.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) vs Cleveland Browns
- Gridiron AI projected points: 10.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 7
The Eagles have the early bye week to reexamine themselves, and their offense is probably going to look quite different against the Browns. Saquon will still get his touches, set to be the Eagles’ top fantasy option by a mile, but Dallas Goedert has reemerged as the safety valve for Jalen Hurts, especially while both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are questionable with various injuries.
Goedert is tied with Smith for the most targets in Philly but has out-caught him and has more yards on the year. He hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, but while the Browns' secondary is sharp and healthy, their middle of the field is banged up and thin. This is a week of opportunities for Goedert, and our model sees him as Tight End 7 this week, more than worthy of getting the start.
Zach Ertz (Washington Commanders) @ Baltimore Ravens
- Gridiron AI projected points: 7.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 18
Ertz has done his job perfectly this season, acting as a reliable option with a big catch radius for a rookie quarterback who may find himself under pressure and needing a few yards. Now, Jayden Daniels is far from helpless in a collapsing pocket, but against the Ravens, he will likely find himself needing a positive play instead of a small or no-gain one fairly often. Baltimore has been gashed by tight ends multiple times this season, already giving up massive games to Brock Bowers and Dalton Kincaid, and Ertz is already one of Daniels’ favorite weapons.
After averaging just 5.7 points through his last 3 outings, Gridiron AI projects Ertz to be worth at least 7.3 points, but his upside is much greater, worth 13.8 points, assuming he finally ends the streak and finds the end zone.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) @ Denver Broncos
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 23
Herbert is already just a fringe starter thanks to the run-heavy Harbaugh offense he’s found himself captaining. But against a Broncos defense that might be the best in football, he shouldn’t be anywhere near a starting spot. Herbert’s receivers are far from elite, and any mistake they make could be magnified by a Denver secondary that has 5 picks returned for over 150 yards and a score. Add to that a Broncos offense that has finally started to put it all together, and this game looks like a dogfight that Herbert isn’t in a position to assert his will over. The Chargers should still be favored to win this game, and Herbert will probably play well, but the win wouldn’t be because he put up big numbers, so our model projects him to score somewhere around 11 points, with nowhere near enough upside to start for you.
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) @ Dallas Cowboys
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 18
Goff has been nothing short of excellent this year and is coming off a perfect game against the Seahawks last week. He’s in position to be deadly and efficient once again in Week 6, but the big numbers likely won’t be there in accompaniment. As we’ll discuss later on this list, the Lions don’t pass the ball unnecessarily, and they should probably run the ball 40+ times against a depleted Cowboys front 4. Gibbs and DaMo are already combining for 30 rushes per game, and with the Cowboys giving up 135 rushing yards every week, regardless of injuries, they should have an absolute field day behind this Lions O-line.
Gridiron AI loves Jared Goff almost every week, and he’s a solid week-to-week starter, but coming out of the bye with two fresh RBs against a bad run defense will deplete any QB’s fantasy value. Goff shakes out around QB18, with a decent ceiling that he’s unlikely to reach.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. (Washington Commanders) @ Baltimore Ravens
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 22
Pulling back the curtain a bit, the weekly writer of this loves Brian Robinson Jr., but this simply isn’t the young halfback’s week. The Ravens are allowing just 60 rushing yards per game. Robinson Jr. is certainly better than most of the backs that Baltimore has seen this season, and his offensive interior is good, but against a central rush of Nnamdi Madabuike and Travis Jones, the central gaps aren’t going to be all that wide.
Robinson Jr. has averaged 14.9 PPR points through his last 3 games, but between the challenge of the Baltimore defense and his carry split with Austin Ekeler, our model only projects him to score around 12 points this week, not good enough to start. If you think that Jayden Daniels has what it takes to light up the Ravens, then Robinson Jr. may have a role in your flex spot as a red zone threat, but the numbers say that even one touchdown wouldn’t mean a massive day for BR.
Zach Moss (Cincinnati Bengals) @ New York Giants
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 26
Zach Moss got his face shoved into the dirt against the Ravens last week and, worse, allowed Chase Brown to steal more touches from him. Brown has 16 fewer carries on the season but has already passed Moss in rushing yards, with more big plays and just as many first downs. If that keeps up, Moss’s role in the offense is going to keep getting smaller and smaller.
Moss was great last year in a Colts system that worked regardless of the rusher thanks to their amazing offensive line. Cincinnati’s line… isn’t made of the same stuff. He’s getting just 3.7 yards per carry, and the Bengals haven’t just been playing defensive juggernauts. Moss is a must-sit this week, but if you haven’t already as his manager, start checking waivers for better options, as he’s likely about to lose his role as a starter to Chase Brown.
Wide Receivers
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ Chicago Bears
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 21
Brian Thomas Jr. has officially overtaken Christian as the Jags’ top wide receiver, as we predicted last week. His unique blend of speed and size that seems to always be pouring out of LSU has attracted targets just like Malik Nabers has in New York. All that said, this simply isn’t the week to continue rolling with Thomas as a starting receiver. The Chicago Bears are allowing under 175 yards per game through the air and only 17 points per game. Between the emergence of Tank Bigsby and the fact that Thomas Jr. will either be lining up with Tyrique Stevenson or Jaylon Johnson, he will be in an experience mismatch no matter what.
Thomas Jr. will still be productive this week, but the Jaguars’ passing game has crumbled on multiple occasions this season, and there are several higher-upside options on most rosters.
Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills) vs New York Jets
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 64
It’s been great to see Keon Coleman come into his own with the Bills over the past few weeks, making giant grabs against the Ravens and Texans to keep Buffalo alive in both games. Unfortunately, not only is Josh Allen in a slump, but now Coleman has to line up alone against one of the meanest secondaries in football. Against quality competition, the Jets are allowing under 140 passing yards per game and only 17 points per game. Allen will be under pressure often and forced to make tight throws to the rookie, and he might not be ready to make that work against Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed.
Compounding the problem is the lingering ankle injury to Khalil Shakir that may or may not hold him out this week. While it would usually be good to promote Coleman up the depth chart, if he draws the full attention of Jeff Ulbrich’s defense in a game where the Jets are highly motivated (thanks to Saleh’s firing), he might not get a hand on the ball all day. Obviously, that’s over-dramatic, but our model still sees Coleman as a mid-tier receiver at best, worth just 6.6 points this week.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week, for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here: https://gridironai.com/football/info/subscriptions