Whilst the NFL never truly sleeps, it is a massive relief to have regular-season football back in our lives. As per usual, this offseason has been stocked full of team and player narratives, with nothing but speculation and hype to fuel them. Now, with a spectacular set of Week 1 games to enjoy, we are finally going to get some answers to our questions.
The dawn of a new season also means the dawn of a new fantasy season, and we will be on hand through every win, loss, and tilt to give you the best possible chance of getting one over on your friends. Our Gridiron AI predictive models and artificial intelligence scour the data to find edges that are missed by many. We apply these to give our subscribers a step up on the field when it comes to fantasy rankings, DFS strategies, and betting insights, and you can currently enjoy 50% off our packages with the code FF50.
For now, though, let’s get stuck into the eagerly anticipated first week of NFL action and find some fantasy gems.
Start Em
Please note, all points projections are based on the PPR scoring system.
1. Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) vs Tennessee Titans
- Gridiron AI projected points: 17.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Despite it being his first-ever start in the NFL, Caleb Williams should be finding his way straight into your starting lineup. In 2023, the Tennessee Titans gave up a 67.78% completion rate, which was 29th worst in the NFL. They addressed that issue head-on by bringing in L'Jarius Sneed, fresh off a fantastic Super Bowl-winning campaign with Kansas City, but Williams is composed enough and has more than enough talent to produce a strong fantasy outing in his debut.
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) vs Denver Broncos
- Gridiron AI projected points: 16.4 (upside points 30.6)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 6
The arrival of Ryan Grubb as Offensive Coordinator in Seattle suggests a big year could be on the way for Geno Smith and his receivers. I think they will get off to a hot start against a Denver Broncos defense that is lacking talent at several key positions. Grubb masterminded a Washington Huskies pass attack that led the nation in 2022 and was second to only Oregon in 2023. With Geno Smith thriving as a deep ball passer and a wide receiver room that includes DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith is in a great spot to hit his upside prediction of 30 points this week.
2. Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings) vs New York Giants
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
Aaron Jones has switched the green of Green Bay for the purple of Minnesota, and I love the matchup for his debut. New York gave up the fourth most rushing yards in 2023 with 2,251. Jones has been flying under the radar this year due to his age and injury history, but he is still a dangerous player when healthy. He closed out last season with five straight 100-yard games, making him a great start this week.
Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs Washington Commanders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
The Commanders gave up the 5th most points to fantasy running backs last year, and White is in a great position to capitalize this week. With the arrival of offensive lineman Graham Barton, White should benefit from improved line play and remain the primary back in Tampa Bay.
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Gridiron AI projected points: 5.4 (upside prediction 11.4)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 36
Achane faces a tough Jacksonville run defense, but Miami's creative offense gives him big-play potential. While the AI projects just 5.4 points, his upside prediction of 11.4 makes him worth considering, especially if coach Mike McDaniel unleashes him in the passing game.
3. Wide Receivers
Nico Collins (Houston Texans) vs Indianapolis Colts
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 9
Nico Collins is primed to be the alpha in Houston's receiver room. With CJ Stroud at quarterback and a weak Indianapolis secondary, Collins has a great opportunity to rack up fantasy points in Week 1.
Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) vs New England Patriots
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.3 (upside prediction 20.8)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 24
Even with Ja'Marr Chase returning to practice, Tee Higgins should see plenty of targets in a pass-heavy Bengals offense. With New England missing key defensive players, Higgins has a good shot to hit his upside of 20.8 points.
Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills) vs Arizona Cardinals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 8.2 (upside predictions 15.7)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 54
Shakir was a reliable target for Josh Allen last year and should benefit from a favorable matchup against a weak Arizona secondary. With the Bills' offense ready to roll, Shakir could easily exceed his 8.2-point projection.
4. Tight Ends
David Njoku (Cleveland Browns) vs Dallas Cowboys
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 1
Njoku is our AI's top-ranked tight end this week, thanks to a favorable matchup against a Dallas defense thin at linebacker. Expect plenty of targets for Njoku in what should be a high-scoring game.
Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks) vs Denver Broncos
- Gridiron AI projected points: 5.9 (upside prediction 11.1)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 19
Fant could be in for a bigger role with a new offensive coordinator and a Denver defense that struggled to defend tight ends last year. The upside is there for Fant to exceed his projection of 5.9 points.
Sit Em
1. Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) vs New York Jets
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
Purdy faces a tough Jets defense that ranks first in multiple areas. With the 49ers' preseason issues and a strong New York defense, Purdy is an easy sit this week.
Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) vs Dallas Cowboys
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 24
Watson has struggled since joining the Browns and faces a fierce Dallas defense in Week 1. With a low projected point total and question marks around his form, Watson should stay on your bench.
2. Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots) vs Cincinnati Bengals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 10.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 29
The Patriots' offense is looking weak this year, and Stevenson's workload could be limited with Antonio Gibson in the mix. Facing a likely negative game script, Stevenson is a risky start.
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs Atlanta Falcons
- Gridiron AI projected points: 4.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 40
Warren faces a tough run defense in Atlanta and is coming off a hamstring injury. With a low projected points total, it's better to leave Warren on the bench this week.
Gus Edwards (LA Chargers) vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 31
The Chargers' backfield remains uncertain, with multiple players in the mix. Edwards is likely to be the primary rusher, but it's best to wait and see how the offense operates before starting him.
3. Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks) vs Denver Broncos
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
Metcalf faces one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Patrick Surtain. With question marks around Denver's secondary, Metcalf's upside is capped this week.
George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs Atlanta Falcons
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 28
Pickens faces a tough matchup against cornerback A.J. Terrell, and with questions about Pittsburgh's offensive line and quarterback play, he's better left on the bench this week.
Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos) vs Seattle Seahawks
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 69
Sutton faces a talented Seattle secondary and has a rookie quarterback making his debut. This isn't the week to trust Sutton in your starting lineup.
4. Tight Ends
George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) vs New York Jets
- Gridiron AI projected points: 8.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
Kittle has a tough matchup against the Jets' elite defense, and with plenty of mouths to feed in San Francisco, his target share could be limited. He's a sit for Week 1.
Luke Musgrave (Green Bay Packers) vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Gridiron AI projected points: 5.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 24
Musgrave has talent, but with plenty of competition for targets in Green Bay, it's best to sit him this week until we see how the offense shakes out.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here.