Introduction
Welcome back to the waiver report. As noted before, players who are on the waiver wire are notoriously hard to project for our models because, in many cases, we don't have a solid snap count sample to use for modeling. We are working on improving, but in the meantime please note that the projections on most of these players are lower than they should be. I try to explain the upside case for these players given their new opportunity or situation change.
This week is a strong one for teams in need of WRs. In other positions, there are fewer viable options for immediate production. If you're in need of an RB this week, it's crucial to be aggressive with your FAAB budget. More on that later.
Waiver Report
Popular Adds
| Player | Team | Opp | Position | Suggested FAAB Budget | Week 4 Expected Points | Use High Waiver Priority | % Rostered | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | MIA | BUF | RB | 60-80% | 3.6 | Yes | 18.6 | 191,463 |
| Adam Thielen | CAR | MIN | WR | 30-40% | 6.7 | Yes | 24.3 | 86,298 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | GB | TE | 20-30% | 6.5 | Yes | 47.2 | 58,270 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | PIT | WR | 20-30% | 7.0 | Yes if WR needy | 11.0 | 106,739 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | LV | WR | 15-25% | 1.9 | Yes if WR needy | 0.8 | 88,350 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | WAS | RB | 15-25% | 2.6 | Yes if RB needy | 45.6 | 6,062 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | LV | WR | 10-20% | 1.2 | Yes if WR needy | 46.8 | 20,573 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | DET | WR | 5-10% | 5.8 | No | 12.6 | 19,204 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | DET | TE | 5-10% | 5.0 | No | 5.3 | 10,231 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | PIT | QB | 5-10% | 16.0 | No | 8.8 | 29,972 |
Player Insights
De'Von Achane
Outside of the exciting emergence of De'Von Achane, the RB position is scarce this week. This will likely drive the price of Achane up significantly. Personally, I think he realistically gets 10-15 touches in a high-powered offense reliably until Jeff Wilson returns. There maybe weeks where he is splitting touches with Mostert AND Wilson but the likelhood of all three being healthy ROS is low. A very exciting pick up for RB needy teams and certainly the best option this week.
Adam Thielen
Thielen is clearly the best option for the Panthers with Jonathan Mingo still adjusting to the NFL. The Panthers were more efficient through the air last week with Andy Dalton at QB for the injured rookie Bryce Young. Young projects to be out again, which sets Thielen up for a big day against a Vikings defense that has been very friendly to opposing offenses.
Sam LaPorta
He is off to a historically good start for a rookie TE in terms of both real life and fantasy. Be aggressive if he's available.
Tank Dell
Dell was an exciting prospect that is earning targets at a high rate. I am optimistic about this offense moving forward as their badly injured o-line gets healthier. The target priority on this team seems a little erratic but I think we can bank on a solid fantasy role for Dell moving forward.
Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston
Palmer has been ahead of Johnston in the WR pecking order, making him the better pick-up if you need production now. However, Johnston becomes a cheaper option with more long-term upside. QJ is considered a raw talent that struggled with little things such as lining up correctly and understanding the complexity of an NFL offense. This is typical of those transitioning from less "pro-style" offenses like TCU. That said, reports from the LAC beat are that the coaching staff seems to be ready to accelerate him into more playing time with Mike Williams out for the season. He seems to be the more protoypical 1:1 replacement for what Mike Williams did for them.
Kenneth Gainwell
Swift is getting the headlines, but Gainwell should be nearly free for those that miss out on Achane. He is trusted at the goal line and would be a priority add if Swift were to get hurt.
Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave
Both have emerged as the primary targets in the Packers' efficient offense. However, with Aaron Jones and Christian Watson expected to return this week, both Musgrave and Doubs will likely drop in the target priority order. My recommended FAAB on either guy would be quite low.
C.J. Stroud
The Texans are surprisingly fast-paced and pass-happy, and Stroud seems to be adjusting to the NFL really well. He is an interesting streaming option this week for QB-needy teams against a "bend-don't-break" Steelers defense that struggles in the secondary from time to time.
Conclusion
Good luck out there! By applying a blend of data science and game theory, you can maximize your chances of securing the players who will provide the most value to your team. Remember to use our projections as one of the many pieces of information you use going into your roster decisions!