Introduction to Strategy in FFPC Playoff Challenge
The FFPC Playoff Challenge presents a unique opportunity for fantasy football enthusiasts. In this challenge, you build a 12-player roster from the entire NFL playoff pool, with one player per team:
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 2 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 4 flex spots (RB, WR, or TE)
- 1 defense/special teams
- 1 kicker
Scoring is PPR, with a TE-premium. Quarterbacks score one point for every 20 passing yards and four points per touchdown pass. The key to success in this format is leveraging game theory over projections, especially for teams expected to lose early. In a single-game scenario, less popular players can outscore favorites, providing a significant advantage.
Note on Strategy
Teams expected to lose early are prime targets for leverage plays, as in a single-game scenario, unexpected outcomes can provide significant advantages. For example, a less popular player like Rashee Rice could outscore all other Chiefs in a loss to the Dolphins. Conversely, consistent performers like Tyreek Hill become more appealing in a 2-3 game stretch as they're likely to accumulate more points. Selecting an upset and a contrarian player from that team might reduce your edge but can also pay off massively as your leverage compounds each round. The table and discussion below will guide you through this nuanced strategy. Remember, your approach should be tailored to your own predictions and risk tolerance.
| Team | Expected Games | Most Popular Play | Leverage Plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 1+ | Nico Collins | CJ Stroud, Devin Singletary |
| Browns | 1 | Amari Cooper | David Njoku |
| Chiefs | 2+ | Travis Kelce | Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice |
| Dolphins | 1 | Tyreek Hill | DeVon Achane, Raheem Mostert |
| Steelers | 1 | - | Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren |
| Bills | 2+ | Josh Allen | James Cook, Dalton Kincaid |
| Ravens | 1+ | Lamar Jackson | Justin Tucker |
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Wild Card
Browns vs. Texans: This game is seen as a toss-up, with many rooting for the Browns due to Joe Flacco's comeback narrative. However, the Texans being underdogs at home makes them an interesting upset pick. CJ Stroud, a rookie QB, adds an element of unpredictability. For the Texans, Nico Collins is a popular pick, but Devin Singletary and CJ Stroud are viable leverage plays. Singletary gives you a workhorse role at very low ownership. On the Browns' side, Amari Cooper and David Njoku are solid options and there is potential for them to be underutilized. I will not be playing a kicker or defense from either of these teams as there is a ton of leverage options here if either team makes a run. Pick to Advance: Texans.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs: The narrative heavily favors the Chiefs, with cold weather expected to impact the Dolphins' explosive offense. For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are key players, with Rashee Rice as an interesting leverage option. On the Dolphin's side, DeVon Achane and Raheem Mostert emerge as intriguing plays due to the Chiefs' weaker run defense. Tyreek Hill is a popular choice, but his effectiveness might be limited by the weather. I am going to fade Tyreek here as I think the Dolphins will struggle with all their defensive injuries. the tough part is which Miami RB will have more success against a bad Chiefs Run D. Pick to Advance: Chiefs.
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Bills vs. Steelers: the narrative here is that the Steelers have 0% chance winning this game. This is obviously not the case, but the probability of winning is low. However, the inclement weather introduces chaos into the system which is always good for an underdgog. The Steelers' strategy of leaning on their RBs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, provides a contrarian angle. Playing any Steelers player is contrarian. The Bills, heavily favored, have Josh Allen as a popular QB pick, but the adverse weather and receiver absence of Gabe Davis opens up opportunities for less popular options like James Cook and Dalton Kincaid. I think the Bills in, but I think playing into the popularity of Josh Allen is unwise given the upset potential here. Pick to Advance: Bills.
Divisional Round
Texans vs. Ravens (Hypothetical): The Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson, are clear favorites. If you went with CJ Stroud as your QB, it makes sense to soft fade the Ravens by playing Justin Tucker, differentiating your lineup and compounding your bold stance that CJ Stroud lights it up in his first playoff appearance. While loving the idea of playing Stroud, I'm heavily leaning towards Lamar Jackson as my QB pick. Pick to Advance: Ravens.
Chiefs vs. Bills (Hypothetical): This high-stakes matchup puts quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the spotlight. However, players like James Cook (Bills) and Rashee Rice (Chiefs) could provide significant value, especially if weather plays a factor. If you see this playing out, it's wise to play a more contrarian player on the team you think loses this matchup. In this scenario, both teams get two games though, so don't go too crazy.
Pick to Advance: Chiefs.
AFC Championship
- Chiefs vs. Ravens: In this potential showdown, the focus will be on Lamar Jackson for the Ravens and Travis Kelce for the Chiefs. James Cook could be a pivotal player if the Bills advance instead. I like picking him as the non-Josh Allen player for the Bills since they likely beat the Chiefs more on the ground than through the air. Pick to Advance: Ravens.
NFC article coming up soon!