Week 8 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Playoff race
Standings · Week 8 · Fri, Nov 6
The playoff race after Week 8, from 10,000 simulations of the season:
Climbing: SF 44% → 92%, CIN 45% → 84%, CHI 46% → 82%
Falling: PHI 63% → 3%, LAC 49% → 0%
Biggest Week 8 swing: SEA, down 22 points.
| Team | Conf | Record | Playoffs | Division | Since preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | AFC | 6-1 | 96% | 74% | +25 pts |
| JAX | AFC | 5-2 | 96% | 90% | +31 pts |
| SF | NFC | 6-1 | 92% | 76% | +48 pts |
| DEN | AFC | 6-2 | 89% | 59% | +34 pts |
| MIN | NFC | 6-1 | 86% | 38% | +36 pts |
| CIN | AFC | 5-2 | 84% | 53% | +40 pts |
| KC | AFC | 5-2 | 82% | 38% | +30 pts |
| CHI | NFC | 6-2 | 82% | 26% | +36 pts |
| DET | NFC | 5-2 | 80% | 30% | +13 pts |
| NE | AFC | 5-3 | 78% | 26% | +9 pts |
| PIT | AFC | 6-2 | 75% | 34% | +27 pts |
| NYG | NFC | 4-2-1 | 59% | 55% | +35 pts |
| SEA | NFC | 4-4 | 53% | 15% | −27 pts |
| GB | NFC | 5-3 | 46% | 6% | −0 pts |
| LA | NFC | 4-4 | 40% | 8% | −27 pts |
| TB | NFC | 3-5 | 34% | 33% | −6 pts |
| CLE | AFC | 5-3 | 31% | 8% | +7 pts |
| CAR | NFC | 3-4 | 31% | 29% | +4 pts |
| DAL | NFC | 3-5 | 31% | 27% | −8 pts |
| HOU | AFC | 2-5 | 29% | 9% | −31 pts |
| ATL | NFC | 3-5 | 25% | 23% | −6 pts |
| BAL | AFC | 4-4 | 22% | 5% | −45 pts |
| NO | NFC | 2-5 | 17% | 16% | −20 pts |
| WAS | NFC | 2-4-1 | 16% | 14% | −11 pts |
| LV | AFC | 4-4 | 14% | 3% | −3 pts |
| ARI | NFC | 3-5 | 4% | 1% | −7 pts |
| PHI | NFC | 2-6 | 3% | 3% | −60 pts |
| IND | AFC | 2-6 | 2% | 1% | −38 pts |
| NYJ | AFC | 2-6 | 1% | 0% | −9 pts |
| MIA | AFC | 1-6 | 0% | 0% | −17 pts |
| LAC | AFC | 0-7 | 0% | 0% | −48 pts |
| TEN | AFC | 1-7 | 0% | 0% | −12 pts |
Team tiers: offense vs. defense by EPA per play
Teams & QBs · Week 8 · Wed, Nov 4
Team tiers through Week 8: every offense and defense by EPA per play (expected points added, how much each play moved a team's scoring chances).
Best net (offense minus defense): JAX +0.20, SF +0.19, KC +0.13.
Worst: LAC −0.19, PHI −0.19, MIA −0.17.
| Team | Offense EPA/play | Defense EPA/play allowed | Net | Offense success rate | Success rate allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.20 | 46% | 42% |
| SF | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.19 | 53% | 44% |
| KC | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.13 | 47% | 42% |
| LAR | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.12 | 49% | 42% |
| CIN | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.12 | 50% | 45% |
| MIN | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.10 | 38% | 36% |
| CHI | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.09 | 48% | 41% |
| BUF | +0.17 | +0.08 | +0.08 | 49% | 47% |
| TB | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.06 | 41% | 40% |
| PIT | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.06 | 43% | 42% |
| GB | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.05 | 40% | 44% |
| NE | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.05 | 46% | 43% |
| SEA | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.03 | 42% | 39% |
| DEN | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | 39% | 41% |
| NYG | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | 43% | 43% |
| NYJ | +0.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 45% | 46% |
| BAL | +0.02 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 45% | 45% |
| DET | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.01 | 49% | 46% |
| HOU | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | 43% | 42% |
| DAL | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | 48% | 47% |
| CAR | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | 42% | 44% |
| LV | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | 44% | 47% |
| WAS | 0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | 41% | 47% |
| ATL | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | 43% | 43% |
| CLE | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | 43% | 42% |
| ARI | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.09 | 44% | 44% |
| NO | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.11 | 42% | 49% |
| TEN | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.14 | 42% | 46% |
| IND | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | 42% | 43% |
| MIA | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.17 | 40% | 49% |
| PHI | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.19 | 38% | 45% |
| LAC | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.19 | 36% | 44% |
QB efficiency: EPA per dropback vs. CPOE
Teams & QBs · Week 8 · Tue, Nov 3
Quarterback efficiency through Week 8: EPA per dropback (how much each dropback helped the offense score, sacks and scrambles included) against completion percentage over expected (accuracy once throw difficulty is taken out).
Best EPA per dropback: Allen (+0.34), Purdy (+0.33), Williams (+0.32).
Lowest: Herbert (−0.24), Jones (−0.18), Rodgers (−0.09).
Most accurate for the throws he attempts: Burrow, +9.0 points of completion rate over expected.
30 quarterbacks with at least 160 dropbacks.
| Quarterback | Team | Dropbacks | EPA/dropback | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | BUF | 241 | +0.34 | +4.0 |
| B.Purdy | SF | 232 | +0.33 | +4.3 |
| C.Williams | CHI | 186 | +0.32 | +7.6 |
| T.Lawrence | JAX | 220 | +0.28 | +3.9 |
| D.Maye | NE | 276 | +0.27 | +7.3 |
| J.Goff | DET | 269 | +0.26 | +1.1 |
| J.Burrow | CIN | 290 | +0.25 | +9.0 |
| K.Cousins | LV | 301 | +0.18 | −0.4 |
| D.Prescott | DAL | 333 | +0.16 | +0.2 |
| P.Mahomes | KC | 255 | +0.15 | +1.6 |
| C.Stroud | HOU | 267 | +0.14 | +2.3 |
| G.Smith | NYJ | 275 | +0.14 | +6.0 |
| J.Love | GB | 328 | +0.14 | −1.1 |
| J.Daniels | WAS | 178 | +0.14 | +5.6 |
| M.Stafford | LAR | 318 | +0.10 | +0.6 |
| B.Young | CAR | 298 | +0.07 | −0.2 |
| T.Shough | NO | 297 | +0.04 | −0.1 |
| M.Willis | MIA | 227 | +0.02 | −5.4 |
| D.Watson | CLE | 307 | +0.02 | −0.1 |
| M.Penix | ATL | 184 | +0.02 | −4.3 |
| K.Murray | MIN | 185 | +0.01 | +2.0 |
| B.Nix | DEN | 271 | 0.00 | −2.6 |
| S.Darnold | SEA | 237 | −0.03 | −2.4 |
| J.Hurts | PHI | 179 | −0.03 | −2.2 |
| C.Ward | TEN | 280 | −0.05 | −0.9 |
| J.Brissett | ARI | 331 | −0.05 | −0.3 |
| J.Winston | NYG | 179 | −0.08 | −7.5 |
| A.Rodgers | PIT | 312 | −0.09 | −1.9 |
| D.Jones | IND | 299 | −0.18 | −3.7 |
| J.Herbert | LAC | 255 | −0.24 | −4.2 |
Pass rate over expected
Teams & QBs · Week 8 · Tue, Nov 3
Pass rate over expected through Week 8: how much more or less often each offense drops back to pass than an average team would in the same down, distance, score and time, in percentage points.
Most pass-heavy: CIN (+7.9), GB (+4.6), KC (+4.1).
Most run-heavy: MIA (−10.7), TB (−9.1), LAC (−8.9).
It measures the play-caller's lean, not how well the passes work.
| Team | Pass rate over expected | Pass rate | Expected | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | +7.9 | 68.2% | 60.3% | 443 |
| GB | +4.6 | 67.6% | 63.0% | 518 |
| KC | +4.1 | 61.3% | 57.3% | 437 |
| CAR | +3.2 | 65.5% | 62.3% | 484 |
| PIT | +2.0 | 65.0% | 63.0% | 517 |
| SF | +1.8 | 58.0% | 56.2% | 414 |
| DAL | +1.2 | 65.4% | 64.2% | 540 |
| LAR | +0.6 | 62.1% | 61.5% | 546 |
| NO | +0.2 | 65.8% | 65.6% | 474 |
| CLE | +0.2 | 65.3% | 65.1% | 507 |
| CHI | 0.0 | 56.3% | 56.3% | 590 |
| ARI | −0.4 | 65.1% | 65.5% | 576 |
| HOU | −0.6 | 64.8% | 65.4% | 452 |
| NE | −0.6 | 59.1% | 59.7% | 508 |
| WAS | −0.8 | 63.9% | 64.7% | 454 |
| DEN | −0.9 | 60.8% | 61.7% | 480 |
| BUF | −1.1 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 455 |
| LV | −1.7 | 62.7% | 64.4% | 525 |
| MIN | −1.7 | 59.0% | 60.7% | 422 |
| PHI | −2.3 | 64.7% | 67.0% | 501 |
| NYJ | −2.4 | 59.7% | 62.1% | 481 |
| DET | −2.8 | 58.2% | 61.0% | 478 |
| BAL | −3.5 | 57.5% | 61.0% | 494 |
| TEN | −3.6 | 62.8% | 66.4% | 471 |
| JAX | −4.1 | 55.1% | 59.3% | 428 |
| IND | −4.6 | 59.0% | 63.6% | 527 |
| SEA | −5.2 | 57.9% | 63.1% | 520 |
| NYG | −5.3 | 58.7% | 64.0% | 475 |
| ATL | −7.7 | 54.2% | 61.9% | 485 |
| LAC | −8.9 | 60.7% | 69.7% | 456 |
| TB | −9.1 | 53.5% | 62.6% | 516 |
| MIA | −10.7 | 57.4% | 68.2% | 418 |
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Week 8 · Thu, Oct 29
Model vs. Vegas, Week 8: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: PHI @ WAS. Market WAS -6, our numbers WAS +0.7.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ WAS | SUN 20:20 | -6 | +0.7 | 6.7 |
| KC @ DEN | SUN 16:25 | +1.5 | -2.1 | 3.6 |
| IND @ JAX | SUN 13:00 | -10 | -7.1 | 2.9 |
| BAL @ BUF | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -5.8 | 2.8 |
| LV @ NYJ | SUN 13:00 | -1.5 | +0.7 | 2.2 |
| ARI @ DAL | SUN 13:00 | -7 | -5.3 | 1.7 |
| MIN @ DET | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -1.8 | 1.2 |
| CLE @ PIT | SUN 13:00 | -3.5 | -4.5 | 1.0 |
| ATL @ TB | SUN 13:00 | -2.5 | -1.7 | 0.8 |
| CAR @ GB | THU 20:15 | -3.5 | -4.3 | 0.8 |
| CHI @ SEA | MON 20:15 | -3 | -3.7 | 0.7 |
| LAC @ LAR | SUN 16:05 | -6.5 | -7.1 | 0.6 |
| NE @ MIA | SUN 16:25 | +7 | +6.5 | 0.5 |
| TEN @ CIN | SUN 13:00 | -10 | -9.7 | 0.3 |
Implied team totals
Betting · Week 8 · Tue, Oct 27
Implied team totals for Week 8: the points the betting market expects from each team, from the game total and the spread (half the total, plus or minus half the spread).
Highest: DAL 30.5 (vs ARI), BUF 28.5 (vs BAL), CIN 28.25 (vs TEN).
Lowest: PHI 18.0 (at WAS), CLE 18.0 (at PIT), TEN 18.25 (at CIN).
On bye: HOU, NO, NYG, SF.
The market's numbers, not ours, and not picks.
| Team | Opponent | Implied points | Spread | Game total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | vs ARI | 30.5 | -6.5 | 54.5 |
| BUF | vs BAL | 28.5 | -3.5 | 53.5 |
| CIN | vs TEN | 28.25 | -10 | 46.5 |
| JAX | vs IND | 27.0 | -7.5 | 46.5 |
| GB | vs CAR | 26.0 | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| NE | at MIA | 26.0 | -7.5 | 44.5 |
| LAR | vs LAC | 25.5 | -6.5 | 44.5 |
| BAL | at BUF | 25.0 | +3.5 | 53.5 |
| DET | vs MIN | 24.75 | -3 | 46.5 |
| SEA | vs CHI | 24.75 | -3 | 46.5 |
| TB | vs ATL | 24.5 | -2.5 | 46.5 |
| ARI | at DAL | 24.0 | +6.5 | 54.5 |
| LV | at NYJ | 23.5 | -1.5 | 45.5 |
| CAR | at GB | 22.5 | +3.5 | 48.5 |
| WAS | vs PHI | 22.5 | -4.5 | 40.5 |
| ATL | at TB | 22.0 | +2.5 | 46.5 |
| NYJ | vs LV | 22.0 | +1.5 | 45.5 |
| CHI | at SEA | 21.75 | +3 | 46.5 |
| MIN | at DET | 21.75 | +3 | 46.5 |
| KC | at DEN | 21.5 | -1.5 | 41.5 |
| PIT | vs CLE | 21.5 | -3.5 | 39.5 |
| DEN | vs KC | 20.0 | +1.5 | 41.5 |
| IND | at JAX | 19.5 | +7.5 | 46.5 |
| LAC | at LAR | 19.0 | +6.5 | 44.5 |
| MIA | vs NE | 18.5 | +7.5 | 44.5 |
| TEN | at CIN | 18.25 | +10 | 46.5 |
| CLE | at PIT | 18.0 | +3.5 | 39.5 |
| PHI | at WAS | 18.0 | +4.5 | 40.5 |
Where the money went
Betting · Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1
Where the money went, Week 8: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
Biggest move: PHI @ WAS, 3 pts toward WAS (WAS -3.5 to -6.5).
Moved against most bettors: LV @ NYJ (82% on LV, line to NYJ); BAL @ BUF (57% on BUF, line to BAL).
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV @ NYJ | -0.5 | -1.5 | 18% | 20% | Reverse |
| BAL @ BUF | -3.5 | -3 | 57% | 44% | Reverse |
| MIN @ DET | -3 | -3.5 | 39% | 39% | Reverse |
| LAC @ LAR | -7 | -6.5 | 73% | 68% | Reverse |
| NE @ MIA | +7.5 | +7 | 23% | 20% | Reverse |
| PHI @ WAS | -3.5 | -6.5 | 49% | 57% | |
| TEN @ CIN | -10 | -12.5 | 69% | 80% | |
| IND @ JAX | -7.5 | -10 | 64% | 67% | |
| ARI @ DAL | -6.5 | -7 | 52% | 51% | |
| KC @ DEN | +1.5 | +1 | 49% | 53% | |
| CLE @ PIT | -3.5 | -3.5 | 49% | 55% | |
| ATL @ TB | -2 | -2 | 37% | 38% | |
| CHI @ SEA | -3 | -3 | 39% | 46% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Week 8 · Sat, Oct 31
Trench watch, Week 8: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
LV rush (87) vs NYJ protection (6)
DEN rush (97) vs KC protection (42)
DET rush (84) vs MIN protection (32)
PIT rush (52) vs CLE protection (0)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 87 | NYJ | 6 | +81 | Rush wins |
| DEN | 97 | KC | 42 | +55 | Rush wins |
| DET | 84 | MIN | 32 | +52 | Rush wins |
| PIT | 52 | CLE | 0 | +52 | Rush wins |
| CHI | 61 | SEA | 13 | +48 | Rush wins |
| MIN | 100 | DET | 55 | +45 | Rush wins |
| CLE | 90 | PIT | 52 | +39 | |
| TEN | 55 | CIN | 26 | +29 | |
| BUF | 74 | BAL | 45 | +29 | |
| JAX | 42 | IND | 23 | +19 | |
| DAL | 35 | ARI | 19 | +16 | |
| LAC | 81 | LA | 65 | +16 | |
| SEA | 94 | CHI | 77 | +16 | |
| LA | 13 | LAC | 3 | +10 | |
| ATL | 71 | TB | 68 | +3 | |
| BAL | 77 | BUF | 84 | −6 | |
| NE | 68 | MIA | 81 | −13 | |
| CIN | 58 | TEN | 74 | −16 | |
| NYJ | 19 | LV | 35 | −16 | |
| MIA | 39 | NE | 58 | −19 | |
| IND | 23 | JAX | 48 | −26 | |
| WAS | 32 | PHI | 61 | −29 | Line wins |
| PHI | 0 | WAS | 29 | −29 | Line wins |
| KC | 48 | DEN | 100 | −52 | Line wins |
| TB | 26 | ATL | 94 | −68 | Line wins |
| ARI | 16 | DAL | 90 | −74 | Line wins |
Run blocking: yards before contact per carry, offense vs. defense
Trenches · Week 8 · Thu, Nov 5
The run game at the line through Week 8: the yards each team's running backs gain per carry before a defender touches them, against what its defense allows opposing backs before contact.
Most room for their own backs: BUF (3.2), LAR (2.9), DET (2.9) yards before contact per carry. Least: LV (1.6), GB (1.7), PHI (1.8).
Defenses that get to the runner soonest: PIT (1.6), JAX (1.6), KC (1.7) allowed. Latest: LV (3.7), NO (2.9), NYG (2.7).
The league average is 2.3. Running back carries only. Yards before contact are mostly blocking and scheme, but the back's speed and the number of defenders in the box count too; charted by Pro Football Reference, not adjusted for opponent.
| Team | Before contact/carry | Before contact/carry allowed | Net | After contact/carry | After contact/carry allowed | RB carries | RB carries faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3.2 | 2.0 | +1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 156 | 154 |
| PIT | 2.7 | 1.6 | +1.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 172 | 157 |
| KC | 2.7 | 1.7 | +1.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 161 | 151 |
| LAR | 2.9 | 2.1 | +0.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 192 | 180 |
| DET | 2.9 | 2.5 | +0.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 184 | 130 |
| TB | 2.3 | 1.9 | +0.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 220 | 149 |
| SF | 2.5 | 2.2 | +0.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 146 | 153 |
| SEA | 2.1 | 1.9 | +0.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 201 | 178 |
| WAS | 2.2 | 2.0 | +0.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 154 | 146 |
| JAX | 1.9 | 1.6 | +0.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 172 | 123 |
| BAL | 2.1 | 1.9 | +0.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 188 | 175 |
| IND | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 191 | 177 |
| MIN | 2.5 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 158 | 158 |
| DEN | 1.9 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 155 | 183 |
| ARI | 2.3 | 2.2 | +0.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 176 | 200 |
| NE | 2.2 | 2.1 | +0.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 192 | 164 |
| DAL | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 171 | 194 |
| CAR | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 155 | 171 |
| NYJ | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 179 | 211 |
| MIA | 2.3 | 2.3 | −0.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 147 | 173 |
| ATL | 2.3 | 2.3 | −0.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 209 | 191 |
| TEN | 2.4 | 2.5 | −0.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 162 | 194 |
| CIN | 2.0 | 2.3 | −0.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 132 | 138 |
| CLE | 2.3 | 2.6 | −0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 138 | 189 |
| GB | 1.7 | 2.0 | −0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 149 | 189 |
| HOU | 1.9 | 2.2 | −0.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 135 | 155 |
| CHI | 2.2 | 2.6 | −0.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 232 | 136 |
| PHI | 1.8 | 2.2 | −0.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 155 | 216 |
| LAC | 2.0 | 2.5 | −0.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 157 | 177 |
| NYG | 1.9 | 2.7 | −0.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 166 | 154 |
| NO | 1.9 | 2.9 | −1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 145 | 172 |
| LV | 1.6 | 3.7 | −2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 183 | 195 |
The receipts
Fantasy · Week 8 · Tue, Nov 3
The receipts, Week 8: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.
Average miss: 6.9 pts, 41% within 5.
Biggest boom: Tee Higgins, 15.0 projected, 37.5 scored.
Biggest miss: Zay Flowers, 18.0 projected, 0.0 scored.
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Scored | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 15.0 | 37.5 | +22.5 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 18.6 | 39.5 | +20.9 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 6.5 | 23.3 | +16.8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 13.2 | 29.9 | +16.7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 14.9 | 31.1 | +16.2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 13.0 | 28.7 | +15.7 |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | 6.0 | 20.4 | +14.4 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 12.6 | 26.8 | +14.2 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 14.2 | 28.2 | +14.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 15.1 | 27.9 | +12.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 15.8 | 28.2 | +12.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 10.9 | 23.2 | +12.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 14.0 | 24.9 | +10.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 9.9 | 18.6 | +8.7 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | 8.6 | 16.6 | +8.0 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | BUF | 8.7 | 16.6 | +7.9 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 19.0 | 26.6 | +7.6 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 13.8 | 20.9 | +7.1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 8.7 | 15.7 | +7.0 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 10.5 | 17.3 | +6.8 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 18.2 | 25.0 | +6.8 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 14.3 | 21.0 | +6.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 5.9 | 12.4 | +6.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 9.5 | 15.8 | +6.3 |
| Luther Burden | WR | CHI | 12.3 | 18.6 | +6.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 15.1 | 21.3 | +6.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 9.1 | 14.9 | +5.8 |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | 16.2 | 21.5 | +5.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 13.1 | 18.3 | +5.2 |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 17.2 | 22.5 | +5.2 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 8.4 | 13.1 | +4.7 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 15.6 | 20.2 | +4.6 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 9.6 | 14.0 | +4.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 12.6 | 17.0 | +4.4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 20.4 | 24.8 | +4.4 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 8.5 | 12.3 | +3.8 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 12.3 | 16.1 | +3.8 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 10.1 | 13.7 | +3.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 20.2 | 23.8 | +3.6 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 9.2 | 12.7 | +3.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 14.2 | 17.3 | +3.1 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 17.1 | 19.8 | +2.7 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | 9.0 | 11.7 | +2.7 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 8.9 | 11.6 | +2.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 16.9 | 19.4 | +2.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 12.5 | 14.3 | +1.8 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 9.8 | 11.4 | +1.6 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 16.5 | 18.1 | +1.6 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 10.3 | 11.7 | +1.4 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 10.4 | 11.5 | +1.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 13.2 | 14.3 | +1.1 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | 7.5 | 7.7 | +0.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 12.2 | 12.0 | −0.2 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 14.4 | 14.0 | −0.4 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 12.1 | 11.6 | −0.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 12.8 | 11.8 | −1.0 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 16.0 | 15.0 | −1.1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 10.1 | 7.5 | −2.6 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | 8.5 | 5.9 | −2.6 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 15.7 | 12.9 | −2.8 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | 10.0 | 6.7 | −3.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 8.5 | 4.7 | −3.8 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 9.8 | 6.0 | −3.8 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 17.0 | 12.6 | −4.4 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 8.8 | 4.3 | −4.5 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 11.4 | 6.8 | −4.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | 9.3 | 4.4 | −4.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 15.4 | 10.3 | −5.1 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 11.6 | 6.5 | −5.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 18.2 | 12.8 | −5.4 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 7.1 | 1.3 | −5.8 |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | MIA | 12.7 | 6.9 | −5.8 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 12.8 | 6.9 | −5.9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 18.4 | 12.4 | −6.0 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 12.1 | 5.8 | −6.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 9.1 | 2.6 | −6.5 |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 16.5 | 9.0 | −7.5 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | MIN | 9.6 | 2.0 | −7.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 16.2 | 8.3 | −8.0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 10.7 | 2.3 | −8.4 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 9.0 | 0.0 | −9.0 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | NYJ | 9.3 | 0.0 | −9.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 16.3 | 6.7 | −9.6 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 11.0 | 1.4 | −9.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 17.2 | 7.6 | −9.6 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 16.5 | 6.7 | −9.8 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 13.5 | 3.6 | −9.9 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | PIT | 11.9 | 1.4 | −10.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 15.9 | 3.5 | −12.5 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 14.5 | 1.8 | −12.7 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 13.0 | 0.0 | −13.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 15.7 | 0.0 | −15.7 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 18.0 | 0.0 | −18.0 |
Receiver usage: target share vs. air-yards share
Fantasy · Week 8 · Tue, Nov 3
Receiver usage through Week 8: each wide receiver and tight end's share of his team's targets against his share of its air yards (how far downfield the throws to him travel).
Biggest target shares: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 36%), P.Nacua (LAR, 34%), D.Smith (PHI, 33%).
Biggest air-yards shares: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 52%), D.Smith (PHI, 48%), C.Tate (TEN, 47%).
Shares are of the team's totals in the games each player played. 97 receivers with at least 4 targets a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Targets | Target share | Air yards | Air-yards share | Avg depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 89 | 36% | 937 | 52% | 10.5 |
| D.Smith | WR | PHI | 41 | 33% | 502 | 48% | 12.2 |
| P.Nacua | WR | LAR | 74 | 34% | 570 | 38% | 7.7 |
| C.Lamb | WR | DAL | 92 | 31% | 907 | 40% | 9.9 |
| D.London | WR | ATL | 62 | 29% | 619 | 42% | 10.0 |
| C.Olave | WR | NO | 71 | 27% | 871 | 45% | 12.3 |
| C.Tate | WR | TEN | 51 | 26% | 646 | 47% | 12.7 |
| M.Nabers | WR | NYG | 70 | 30% | 811 | 36% | 11.6 |
| A.St. Brown | WR | DET | 76 | 31% | 640 | 34% | 8.4 |
| M.Golden | WR | GB | 82 | 27% | 1165 | 41% | 14.2 |
| Z.Flowers | WR | BAL | 58 | 30% | 478 | 33% | 8.2 |
| Mi.Wilson | WR | ARI | 81 | 26% | 921 | 40% | 11.4 |
| G.Wilson | WR | NYJ | 63 | 28% | 653 | 36% | 10.4 |
| A.Mitchell | WR | NYJ | 27 | 23% | 474 | 45% | 17.6 |
| B.Bowers | TE | LV | 61 | 28% | 608 | 34% | 10.0 |
| M.Evans | WR | SF | 39 | 23% | 571 | 43% | 14.6 |
| D.Metcalf | WR | PIT | 64 | 24% | 809 | 41% | 12.6 |
| T.Higgins | WR | CIN | 61 | 23% | 831 | 41% | 13.6 |
| D.Boston | WR | CLE | 53 | 21% | 801 | 45% | 15.1 |
| E.Egbuka | WR | TB | 49 | 26% | 475 | 35% | 9.7 |
| P.Washington | WR | JAX | 48 | 25% | 618 | 38% | 12.9 |
| T.McMillan | WR | CAR | 65 | 26% | 693 | 34% | 10.7 |
| J.Jefferson | WR | MIN | 40 | 27% | 398 | 31% | 9.9 |
| J.Waddle | WR | DEN | 51 | 23% | 501 | 38% | 9.8 |
| J.Addison | WR | MIN | 33 | 22% | 502 | 39% | 15.2 |
| M.Washington | WR | MIA | 45 | 25% | 468 | 28% | 10.4 |
| J.Chase | WR | CIN | 61 | 23% | 635 | 31% | 10.4 |
| T.McBride | TE | ARI | 86 | 27% | 520 | 22% | 6.0 |
| I.Likely | TE | NYG | 63 | 27% | 501 | 22% | 8.0 |
| D.Adams | WR | LAR | 49 | 20% | 759 | 37% | 15.5 |
| N.Collins | WR | HOU | 35 | 22% | 436 | 32% | 12.5 |
| C.Watson | WR | GB | 66 | 22% | 882 | 31% | 13.4 |
| G.Pickens | WR | DAL | 62 | 21% | 722 | 32% | 11.6 |
| J.Williams | WR | DET | 44 | 18% | 657 | 35% | 14.9 |
| J.Coker | WR | CAR | 44 | 21% | 472 | 27% | 10.7 |
| R.Odunze | WR | CHI | 44 | 17% | 652 | 35% | 14.8 |
| J.Downs | WR | IND | 51 | 20% | 530 | 29% | 10.4 |
| L.Burden | WR | CHI | 56 | 22% | 442 | 24% | 7.9 |
| S.Diggs | WR | WAS | 44 | 23% | 375 | 21% | 8.5 |
| G.Kittle | TE | SF | 46 | 22% | 352 | 21% | 7.7 |
| K.Allen | WR | IND | 50 | 22% | 367 | 21% | 7.3 |
| C.Douglas | WR | MIA | 19 | 19% | 233 | 28% | 12.3 |
| D.Moore | WR | BUF | 27 | 19% | 406 | 28% | 15.0 |
| X.Worthy | WR | KC | 41 | 19% | 353 | 27% | 8.6 |
| C.Sutton | WR | DEN | 37 | 16% | 412 | 31% | 11.1 |
| D.Wicks | WR | PHI | 32 | 17% | 420 | 28% | 13.1 |
| T.Tucker | WR | LV | 48 | 17% | 643 | 28% | 13.4 |
| T.McLaurin | WR | WAS | 27 | 18% | 347 | 26% | 12.9 |
| T.Warren | TE | IND | 46 | 23% | 196 | 14% | 4.3 |
| D.Vele | WR | NO | 48 | 18% | 476 | 25% | 9.9 |
| W.Robinson | WR | TEN | 50 | 21% | 288 | 17% | 5.8 |
| M.Hollins | WR | NE | 20 | 17% | 297 | 27% | 14.8 |
| K.Concepcion | WR | CLE | 49 | 20% | 362 | 20% | 7.4 |
| R.Rice | WR | KC | 25 | 19% | 153 | 21% | 6.1 |
| T.Hockenson | TE | MIN | 37 | 20% | 272 | 19% | 7.4 |
| T.Kelce | TE | KC | 42 | 19% | 270 | 21% | 6.4 |
| H.Fannin | TE | CLE | 51 | 21% | 306 | 17% | 6.0 |
| C.Loveland | TE | CHI | 51 | 20% | 336 | 18% | 6.6 |
| D.Kincaid | TE | BUF | 35 | 18% | 354 | 20% | 10.1 |
| X.Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 40 | 17% | 445 | 21% | 11.1 |
| T.Harris | WR | LAC | 28 | 17% | 301 | 22% | 10.8 |
| R.Wilson | WR | PIT | 25 | 14% | 381 | 26% | 15.2 |
| B.Strange | TE | JAX | 35 | 18% | 276 | 17% | 7.9 |
| M.Andrews | TE | BAL | 41 | 18% | 272 | 16% | 6.6 |
| Q.Johnston | WR | LAC | 26 | 14% | 338 | 24% | 13.0 |
| J.Meyers | WR | JAX | 31 | 16% | 327 | 20% | 10.5 |
| K.Shakir | WR | BUF | 38 | 20% | 209 | 12% | 5.5 |
| R.Doubs | WR | NE | 24 | 13% | 423 | 25% | 17.6 |
| D.Douglas | WR | NE | 37 | 16% | 391 | 19% | 10.6 |
| S.LaPorta | TE | DET | 44 | 18% | 267 | 14% | 6.1 |
| M.Lemon | WR | PHI | 45 | 18% | 264 | 14% | 5.9 |
| G.Bernard | WR | PIT | 42 | 18% | 213 | 13% | 5.1 |
| D.Schultz | TE | HOU | 43 | 19% | 242 | 12% | 5.6 |
| A.Williams | WR | WAS | 33 | 15% | 365 | 18% | 11.1 |
| R.Shaheed | WR | SEA | 30 | 14% | 333 | 21% | 11.1 |
| D.Goedert | TE | PHI | 35 | 17% | 199 | 13% | 5.7 |
| L.McConkey | WR | LAC | 24 | 13% | 298 | 21% | 12.4 |
| C.Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 24 | 16% | 189 | 13% | 7.9 |
| C.Godwin | WR | TB | 35 | 17% | 135 | 9% | 3.9 |
| M.Fields | WR | NYG | 30 | 13% | 413 | 18% | 13.8 |
| R.Flournoy | WR | DAL | 44 | 15% | 312 | 14% | 7.1 |
| T.Kraft | TE | GB | 49 | 16% | 281 | 10% | 5.7 |
| G.Dulcich | TE | MIA | 28 | 16% | 187 | 11% | 6.7 |
| D.Cooper | WR | PHI | 24 | 12% | 282 | 19% | 11.8 |
| J.Nailor | WR | LV | 24 | 12% | 281 | 17% | 11.7 |
| P.Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 35 | 13% | 299 | 15% | 8.5 |
| K.Pitts | TE | ATL | 32 | 15% | 159 | 11% | 5.0 |
| M.Mayer | TE | LV | 43 | 15% | 218 | 10% | 5.1 |
| H.Henry | TE | NE | 34 | 15% | 205 | 10% | 6.0 |
| K.Raymond | WR | CHI | 34 | 13% | 226 | 12% | 6.6 |
| J.Brooks | WR | ARI | 17 | 10% | 252 | 19% | 14.8 |
| J.Johnson | TE | NO | 37 | 14% | 172 | 9% | 4.6 |
| T.Higbee | TE | LAR | 34 | 11% | 269 | 12% | 7.9 |
| D.Samuel | WR | SF | 20 | 15% | 51 | 5% | 2.5 |
| K.Bourne | WR | ARI | 38 | 12% | 215 | 9% | 5.7 |
| J.Metchie | WR | CAR | 20 | 11% | 144 | 10% | 7.2 |
| A.Barner | TE | SEA | 34 | 14% | 73 | 4% | 2.1 |
Workload vs. points: expected fantasy points vs. actual
Fantasy · Week 8 · Tue, Nov 3
Workload vs. points through Week 8: expected PPR points per game (what an average player scores on the same carries and targets) against what each player has actually scored.
Furthest above their workload: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+8.3), Tee Higgins (+4.3), Zay Flowers (+3.8) points a game.
Furthest below: Michael Wilson (−5.8), Jalen Brooks (−5.0), Jadarian Price (−4.4).
Workload is the steadier half, so big gaps tend to close: in 2024 and 2025 the players furthest above theirs after four weeks kept under a third of the gap the rest of the way, and the ones furthest below got back to even. A tendency across players, not a forecast for any one of them.
118 running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with at least 8 expected points a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Games | Expected pts/game | Actual pts/game | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 8 | 19.2 | 27.5 | +8.3 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 7 | 15.7 | 19.9 | +4.3 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 7 | 13.6 | 17.5 | +3.8 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 4 | 10.3 | 14.1 | +3.7 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 7 | 13.7 | 16.9 | +3.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 8 | 14.8 | 17.6 | +2.8 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 7 | 16.1 | 18.8 | +2.7 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 6 | 13.3 | 15.8 | +2.6 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 8 | 15.8 | 18.4 | +2.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 7 | 16.6 | 19.0 | +2.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 7 | 16.0 | 18.3 | +2.3 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | 8 | 8.3 | 10.4 | +2.1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 8 | 9.2 | 11.3 | +2.1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 7 | 9.7 | 11.7 | +2.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 6 | 12.5 | 14.4 | +1.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 6 | 8.8 | 10.7 | +1.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 6 | 11.8 | 13.7 | +1.9 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 8 | 10.6 | 12.5 | +1.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 8 | 17.2 | 19.0 | +1.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 7 | 9.4 | 11.2 | +1.8 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LAR | 6 | 15.2 | 17.0 | +1.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 6 | 8.0 | 9.7 | +1.7 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 4 | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 6 | 9.6 | 11.2 | +1.6 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 5 | 13.7 | 15.2 | +1.5 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 7 | 8.1 | 9.5 | +1.4 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 8 | 9.1 | 10.5 | +1.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 8 | 8.5 | 9.9 | +1.4 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 7 | 13.5 | 14.9 | +1.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 7 | 10.0 | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 8 | 15.2 | 16.3 | +1.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 7 | 15.0 | 16.1 | +1.1 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 8 | 11.4 | 12.4 | +1.1 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 6 | 19.6 | 20.6 | +1.1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 8 | 17.7 | 18.8 | +1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 6 | 10.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 7 | 12.7 | 13.6 | +0.9 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 7 | 8.8 | 9.6 | +0.9 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 4 | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 |
| Germie Bernard | WR | PIT | 7 | 8.8 | 9.5 | +0.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 8 | 11.6 | 12.4 | +0.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | 7 | 8.6 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 8 | 13.7 | 14.4 | +0.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 7 | 8.9 | 9.6 | +0.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 8 | 9.0 | 9.7 | +0.7 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 7 | 13.7 | 14.4 | +0.7 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 6 | 22.5 | 23.1 | +0.6 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 6 | 13.0 | 13.5 | +0.6 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 6 | 9.9 | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | +0.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 8 | 13.8 | 14.2 | +0.4 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 7 | 17.4 | 17.8 | +0.4 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 8 | 18.5 | 18.8 | +0.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 7 | 27.6 | 27.8 | +0.3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | SF | 5 | 9.0 | 9.3 | +0.3 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | NE | 4 | 8.8 | 9.0 | +0.2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 8 | 14.4 | 14.6 | +0.2 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 7 | 17.1 | 17.2 | +0.1 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 6 | 11.6 | 11.7 | +0.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 5 | 8.9 | 9.0 | +0.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | 4 | 12.0 | 12.1 | +0.1 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 7 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 0.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | PHI | 6 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 7 | 22.9 | 22.9 | −0.1 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 7 | 11.1 | 11.0 | −0.1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 8 | 11.3 | 11.1 | −0.2 |
| Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | 8 | 11.1 | 10.9 | −0.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 7 | 20.8 | 20.6 | −0.3 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 5 | 9.0 | 8.7 | −0.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 7 | 12.5 | 12.3 | −0.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 7 | 9.6 | 9.3 | −0.3 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 6 | 12.9 | 12.6 | −0.3 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | 8 | 8.1 | 7.7 | −0.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 8 | 18.5 | 18.0 | −0.5 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 7 | 11.2 | 10.6 | −0.5 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 8 | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 8 | 17.6 | 17.1 | −0.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 8 | 21.6 | 21.0 | −0.6 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 8 | 14.3 | 13.7 | −0.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 6 | 9.1 | 8.4 | −0.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | −0.8 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 8 | 17.9 | 17.1 | −0.8 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 7 | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.8 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 7 | 12.3 | 11.4 | −0.9 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | PIT | 5 | 9.9 | 8.9 | −0.9 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 5 | 11.5 | 10.6 | −0.9 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | −1.0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 7 | 13.4 | 12.4 | −1.0 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | 8 | 9.7 | 8.7 | −1.0 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 8 | 14.1 | 13.0 | −1.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 8 | 11.0 | 9.8 | −1.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 8 | 20.1 | 18.8 | −1.3 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 6 | 13.4 | 12.0 | −1.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 7 | 21.6 | 20.1 | −1.4 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 8 | 10.5 | 9.1 | −1.4 |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 7 | 10.4 | 8.9 | −1.5 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 6 | 9.7 | 8.2 | −1.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 7 | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 8 | 8.0 | 6.4 | −1.6 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 7 | 10.6 | 8.9 | −1.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 7 | 12.4 | 10.7 | −1.7 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 8 | 10.5 | 8.7 | −1.8 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 6 | 11.0 | 8.9 | −2.1 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 7 | 10.2 | 8.0 | −2.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | −2.3 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 8 | 18.8 | 16.5 | −2.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 8 | 9.7 | 7.4 | −2.3 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 7 | 10.1 | 7.8 | −2.4 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 8 | 9.2 | 6.8 | −2.4 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 7 | 15.9 | 13.0 | −2.9 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 6 | 14.8 | 11.8 | −2.9 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 8 | 12.5 | 9.2 | −3.2 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | NO | 6 | 9.7 | 6.4 | −3.3 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 8 | 20.1 | 16.4 | −3.7 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 8 | 13.6 | 9.7 | −3.8 |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | 4 | 9.4 | 4.9 | −4.4 |
| Jalen Brooks | WR | ARI | 4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | −5.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 8 | 19.4 | 13.6 | −5.8 |
Running back yards before and after contact
Fantasy · Week 8 · Thu, Nov 5
Running back yards before and after contact through Week 8: each back's yards per carry before the first defender touches him (mostly the room he is given by his blockers and the scheme) against his yards per carry after it (mostly his own work).
Most yards after contact per carry: Jaylen Warren (PIT, 2.8), Bucky Irving (TB, 2.7), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 2.7).
Most room before contact: James Cook (BUF, 3.4), Blake Corum (LAR, 3.3), Jaylen Warren (PIT, 3.1).
Least room: Ashton Jeanty (LV, 1.5), J.K. Dobbins (DEN, 1.6), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 1.8).
The average running back carry has gained 2.3 yards before contact and 1.9 after. 32 backs with at least 64 carries; charted by Pro Football Reference.
| Running back | Team | Carries | Yards/carry | Before contact/carry | After contact/carry | Share after contact | Broken tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 119 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 47% | 15 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 147 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 54% | 16 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 110 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 60% | 11 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 150 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | 9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 141 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 47% | 16 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 65 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 52% | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 112 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 45% | 8 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 112 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 43% | 9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 118 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 47% | 12 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 98 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 48% | 5 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 158 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 51% | 5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 72 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 44% | 6 |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | 91 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 44% | 6 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 133 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 43% | 11 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 157 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 39% | 8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 84 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 41% | 2 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | 75 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 36% | 3 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 143 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 48% | 8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 96 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 47% | 2 |
| James Cook | BUF | 138 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 35% | 10 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 148 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 42% | 6 |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 76 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 47% | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 108 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 53% | 7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 94 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 50% | 2 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 89 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 46% | 9 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 94 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 43% | 8 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 110 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 36% | 4 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 134 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 38% | 8 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 77 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 41% | 5 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 67 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 39% | 1 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 101 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 41% | 7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 111 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 38% | 5 |
Rush yards over expected vs. stacked boxes
Fantasy · Week 8 · Tue, Nov 3
Rush yards over expected through Week 8: how many more yards per carry each running back has gained than an average back would on the same carries (the NFL's Next Gen Stats model, built on where every blocker and defender was at the handoff), against how often he runs into a box of eight or more defenders.
Most yards over expected per carry: Jaylen Warren (PIT, +1.93), Kenneth Walker (KC, +1.84), Braelon Allen (NYJ, +1.22).
Fewest: J.K. Dobbins (DEN, −1.07), Omarion Hampton (LAC, −0.66), Jeremiyah Love (ARI, −0.61).
Most loaded boxes: Kyren Williams (LAR, 35%), Derrick Henry (BAL, 31%), Ashton Jeanty (LV, 30%) of carries. Fewest: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS, 6%), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 15%), Tony Pollard (TEN, 16%).
32 running backs with at least 64 carries.
| Running back | Team | Carries | Yards/carry | Yards over expected/carry | Yards over expected | Carries over expected | 8+ in the box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 119 | 5.9 | +1.93 | +222 | 53% | 24% |
| Kenneth Walker | KC | 141 | 5.5 | +1.84 | +248 | 41% | 23% |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 112 | 5.0 | +1.22 | +133 | 53% | 26% |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 150 | 5.2 | +1.21 | +175 | 45% | 24% |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 72 | 4.5 | +0.84 | +60 | 34% | 26% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 157 | 4.9 | +0.80 | +123 | 45% | 18% |
| James Cook | BUF | 138 | 5.1 | +0.78 | +104 | 45% | 23% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 118 | 4.6 | +0.76 | +89 | 44% | 24% |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 147 | 5.0 | +0.72 | +104 | 41% | 26% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 133 | 4.5 | +0.61 | +79 | 46% | 16% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 112 | 4.9 | +0.53 | +57 | 46% | 35% |
| Blake Corum | LAR | 75 | 5.2 | +0.49 | +35 | 42% | 27% |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | 91 | 4.5 | +0.45 | +40 | 39% | 27% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 84 | 4.6 | +0.36 | +30 | 41% | 27% |
| Mike Washington | LV | 65 | 4.3 | +0.36 | +23 | 37% | 29% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 134 | 3.9 | +0.22 | +29 | 44% | 19% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 96 | 3.8 | +0.17 | +16 | 43% | 22% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 110 | 4.5 | +0.15 | +16 | 38% | 15% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 158 | 4.0 | +0.11 | +17 | 34% | 31% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 98 | 4.3 | +0.07 | +7 | 36% | 21% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 148 | 4.1 | +0.02 | +3 | 36% | 18% |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 101 | 3.4 | −0.31 | −31 | 35% | 25% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 108 | 3.1 | −0.32 | −34 | 33% | 30% |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 94 | 3.6 | −0.40 | −37 | 42% | 22% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 77 | 3.5 | −0.44 | −32 | 34% | 29% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 67 | 3.6 | −0.45 | −30 | 24% | 6% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 143 | 3.8 | −0.54 | −73 | 35% | 25% |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 110 | 4.2 | −0.54 | −59 | 38% | 21% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 111 | 3.6 | −0.59 | −65 | 35% | 22% |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 76 | 3.5 | −0.61 | −46 | 38% | 22% |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 89 | 3.5 | −0.66 | −59 | 36% | 22% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 94 | 3.3 | −1.07 | −100 | 25% | 18% |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Week 8 · Wed, Oct 28
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 8.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB4 now.
Biggest fall: Lamar Jackson, QB2 on draft day, QB36 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 16.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB36 | −34 | 5.7 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB3 | +0 | 12.9 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB6 | −2 | 12.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB9 | −4 | 10.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB34 | −28 | 5.9 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB10 | −3 | 11.6 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB24 | −16 | 9.3 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB17 | −8 | 9.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB5 | +5 | 11.8 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB30 | −19 | 7.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB21 | −9 | 9.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB8 | +5 | 10.6 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 14.3 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB12 | +3 | 11.1 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB13 | +3 | 10.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB23 | −6 | 9.8 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB26 | −8 | 8.3 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB18 | +1 | 10.6 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB7 | +13 | 11.9 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB14 | +8 | 10.9 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB15 | +9 | 10.8 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB4 | +21 | 12.1 |
| Sam Darnold | QB26 | QB16 | +10 | 10.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB28 | QB11 | +17 | 11.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB29 | QB20 | +9 | 10.3 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Week 8 · Wed, Oct 28
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 8.
Biggest climb: Braelon Allen, RB56 on draft day, RB23 now.
Biggest fall: David Montgomery, RB21 on draft day, RB83 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 19.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB3 | −1 | 14.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB8 | −5 | 12.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB17 | −13 | 10.9 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB7 | −2 | 11.7 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB2 | +4 | 15.9 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB44 | −37 | 5.1 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB6 | +2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB16 | −7 | 9.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB33 | −23 | 7.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB5 | +6 | 12.3 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB10 | +2 | 11.9 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB55 | −42 | 4.8 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB4 | +10 | 14.5 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB13 | +2 | 11.7 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB40 | −24 | 6.0 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB79 | −61 | 2.9 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB12 | +7 | 11.7 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB20 | +0 | 10.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB83 | −62 | 2.7 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB15 | +7 | 10.9 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB37 | −14 | 6.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB14 | +10 | 11.1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB25 | RB18 | +7 | 9.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB9 | +18 | 12.2 |
| RJ Harvey | RB28 | RB24 | +4 | 8.9 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB21 | +8 | 9.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB22 | +8 | 9.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB32 | RB11 | +21 | 10.7 |
| Braelon Allen | RB56 | RB23 | +33 | 9.0 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Week 8 · Wed, Oct 28
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 8.
Biggest climb: Malik Washington, WR66 on draft day, WR21 now.
Biggest fall: Davante Adams, WR23 on draft day, WR76 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR4 | −3 | 13.5 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR1 | +1 | 17.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR3 | +0 | 15.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR2 | +2 | 15.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR7 | −2 | 13.3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR14 | −8 | 10.3 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR8 | −1 | 12.9 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR23 | −15 | 9.5 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR19 | −10 | 10.2 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR16 | −6 | 10.9 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR11 | +0 | 12.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR40 | −28 | 6.5 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR12 | +1 | 11.7 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR42 | −28 | 6.9 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR5 | +10 | 13.6 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR47 | −31 | 6.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR9 | +8 | 11.6 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR6 | +12 | 12.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR20 | −1 | 10.2 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR56 | −36 | 4.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR38 | −17 | 7.5 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR24 | −2 | 9.5 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR76 | −53 | 4.2 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR70 | −46 | 4.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR13 | +13 | 10.5 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR10 | +21 | 11.4 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR22 | +13 | 9.5 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR18 | +18 | 10.2 |
| Matthew Golden | WR51 | WR15 | +36 | 11.1 |
| Jalen Coker | WR54 | WR17 | +37 | 9.8 |
| Malik Washington | WR66 | WR21 | +45 | 8.8 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Week 8 · Wed, Oct 28
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 8.
Biggest climb: AJ Barner, TE25 on draft day, TE13 now.
Biggest fall: Tyler Warren, TE4 on draft day, TE29 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE4 | −3 | 10.1 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 11.8 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE11 | −8 | 8.1 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE29 | −25 | 5.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE8 | −3 | 8.7 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE12 | −6 | 7.8 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE19 | −12 | 7.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE5 | +3 | 8.3 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE3 | +6 | 10.9 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE6 | +4 | 8.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE35 | −24 | 4.9 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE2 | +10 | 11.6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE10 | +3 | 7.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE17 | −3 | 7.4 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE25 | −10 | 6.1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE7 | +9 | 8.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE28 | −11 | 6.0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE26 | −8 | 5.5 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE9 | +10 | 7.8 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE15 | +5 | 7.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE16 | +5 | 6.8 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE23 | TE14 | +9 | 7.6 |
| AJ Barner | TE25 | TE13 | +12 | 7.7 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE27 | TE18 | +9 | 6.7 |