Week 7 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Week 7 · Thu, Oct 22
Model vs. Vegas, Week 7: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: MIA @ NYJ. Market NYJ -4.5, our numbers NYJ -1.8.
Starting QB in doubt, per ESPN: DAL @ PHI, Jalen Hurts (PHI, on injured reserve); KC @ SEA, Drew Lock (SEA, questionable); GB @ DET, Jordan Love (GB, questionable). Our number has the listed starter playing and changes if he sits, so those games are left out of the biggest gap above.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap | Starting QB in doubt (ESPN status) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ PHI | MON 20:15 | +4.5 | -2 | 6.5 | Jalen Hurts (PHI, on injured reserve) |
| MIA @ NYJ | SUN 13:00 | -4.5 | -1.8 | 2.7 | |
| TB @ CAR | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -5 | 2.0 | |
| LAR @ LV | SUN 16:25 | +3.5 | +5.4 | 1.9 | |
| IND @ MIN | SUN 13:00 | -6.5 | -5.1 | 1.4 | |
| SF @ ATL | SUN 13:00 | +2.5 | +3.5 | 1.0 | |
| CLE @ TEN | SUN 13:00 | +1.5 | +0.6 | 0.9 | |
| CIN @ BAL | SUN 13:00 | +1.5 | +0.7 | 0.8 | |
| KC @ SEA | SUN 20:20 | -3 | -2.5 | 0.5 | Drew Lock (SEA, questionable) |
| GB @ DET | SUN 16:25 | -3 | -3.5 | 0.5 | Jordan Love (GB, questionable) |
| DEN @ ARI | SUN 16:05 | +4.5 | +5 | 0.5 | |
| NE @ CHI | THU 20:15 | -3 | -3.2 | 0.2 | |
| NYG @ HOU | SUN 13:00 | -10.5 | -10.3 | 0.2 | |
| PIT @ NO | SUN 09:30 | +3.5 | +3.4 | 0.1 |
Implied team totals
Betting · Week 7 · Tue, Oct 20
Implied team totals for Week 7: the points the betting market expects from each team, from the game total and the spread (half the total, plus or minus half the spread).
Highest: DET 28.25 (vs GB), BAL 27.25 (vs CIN), CHI 26.75 (vs NE).
Lowest: NYG 16.25 (at HOU), MIA 17.0 (at NYJ), IND 17.5 (at MIN).
On bye: BUF, JAX, LAC, WAS.
The market's numbers, not ours, and not picks.
| Team | Opponent | Implied points | Spread | Game total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | vs GB | 28.25 | -3 | 53.5 |
| BAL | vs CIN | 27.25 | -3 | 51.5 |
| CHI | vs NE | 26.75 | -3 | 50.5 |
| SF | at ATL | 26.75 | -3 | 50.5 |
| HOU | vs NYG | 26.25 | -10 | 42.5 |
| LAR | at LV | 26.0 | -4.5 | 47.5 |
| GB | at DET | 25.25 | +3 | 53.5 |
| DAL | at PHI | 24.5 | -4.5 | 44.5 |
| CIN | at BAL | 24.25 | +3 | 51.5 |
| CAR | vs TB | 24.0 | -3.5 | 44.5 |
| DEN | at ARI | 24.0 | -4.5 | 43.5 |
| MIN | vs IND | 24.0 | -6.5 | 41.5 |
| PIT | at NO | 24.0 | -3.5 | 44.5 |
| ATL | vs SF | 23.75 | +3 | 50.5 |
| NE | at CHI | 23.75 | +3 | 50.5 |
| SEA | vs KC | 22.5 | -2.5 | 42.5 |
| LV | vs LAR | 21.5 | +4.5 | 47.5 |
| NYJ | vs MIA | 21.5 | -4.5 | 38.5 |
| NO | vs PIT | 20.5 | +3.5 | 44.5 |
| TB | at CAR | 20.5 | +3.5 | 44.5 |
| CLE | at TEN | 20.0 | -1.5 | 38.5 |
| KC | at SEA | 20.0 | +2.5 | 42.5 |
| PHI | vs DAL | 20.0 | +4.5 | 44.5 |
| ARI | vs DEN | 19.5 | +4.5 | 43.5 |
| TEN | vs CLE | 18.5 | +1.5 | 38.5 |
| IND | at MIN | 17.5 | +6.5 | 41.5 |
| MIA | at NYJ | 17.0 | +4.5 | 38.5 |
| NYG | at HOU | 16.25 | +10 | 42.5 |
Where the money went
Betting · Week 7 · Tue, Oct 20
Where the money went, Week 7: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
Biggest move: PIT @ NO, 1 pts toward PIT (NO +2.5 to +3.5).
Moved against most bettors: PIT @ NO (56% on NO, line to PIT); SF @ ATL (69% on SF, line to ATL).
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ NO | +2.5 | +3.5 | 56% | 51% | Reverse |
| SF @ ATL | +4.5 | +3.5 | 31% | 57% | Reverse |
| NYG @ HOU | -9.5 | -10 | 36% | 26% | Reverse |
| MIA @ NYJ | -5.5 | -5 | 58% | 54% | Reverse |
| IND @ MIN | -5.5 | -6.5 | 51% | 55% | |
| LAR @ LV | +5.5 | +4.5 | 60% | 53% | |
| TB @ CAR | -3 | -3.5 | 66% | 67% | |
| DEN @ ARI | +4 | +4.5 | 36% | 43% | |
| NE @ CHI | -3 | -3 | 23% | 26% | |
| CIN @ BAL | -3 | -3 | 28% | 14% | |
| CLE @ TEN | +1.5 | +1.5 | 25% | 24% | |
| GB @ DET | -3 | -3 | 32% | 22% | |
| KC @ SEA | -2.5 | -2.5 | 17% | 26% | |
| DAL @ PHI | +4.5 | +4.5 | 34% | 20% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Week 7 · Tue, Oct 20
Trench watch, Week 7: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
DET rush (84) vs GB protection (13)
DEN rush (97) vs ARI protection (32)
MIN rush (100) vs IND protection (35)
KC rush (58) vs SEA protection (6)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 84 | GB | 13 | +71 | Rush wins |
| DEN | 97 | ARI | 32 | +65 | Rush wins |
| MIN | 100 | IND | 35 | +65 | Rush wins |
| KC | 58 | SEA | 6 | +52 | Rush wins |
| BAL | 74 | CIN | 26 | +48 | Rush wins |
| TEN | 45 | CLE | 0 | +45 | Rush wins |
| HOU | 61 | NYG | 19 | +42 | |
| SEA | 94 | KC | 58 | +35 | |
| LV | 87 | LA | 61 | +26 | |
| LA | 32 | LV | 16 | +16 | |
| GB | 52 | DET | 39 | +13 | |
| CLE | 90 | TEN | 77 | +13 | |
| MIA | 16 | NYJ | 10 | +6 | |
| CIN | 55 | BAL | 52 | +3 | |
| CHI | 65 | NE | 65 | +0 | |
| DAL | 35 | PHI | 48 | −13 | |
| NE | 68 | CHI | 84 | −16 | |
| ATL | 81 | SF | 97 | −16 | |
| IND | 10 | MIN | 29 | −19 | |
| PIT | 48 | NO | 74 | −26 | |
| NO | 19 | PIT | 45 | −26 | |
| TB | 13 | CAR | 42 | −29 | |
| NYJ | 23 | MIA | 68 | −45 | |
| SF | 29 | ATL | 90 | −61 | Line wins |
| ARI | 39 | DEN | 100 | −61 | Line wins |
| CAR | 0 | TB | 71 | −71 | Line wins |
| PHI | 3 | DAL | 81 | −77 | Line wins |
| NYG | 6 | HOU | 94 | −87 | Line wins |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Week 7 · Wed, Oct 21
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 7.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB3 now.
Biggest fall: Jalen Hurts, QB6 on draft day, QB88 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 15.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB36 | −34 | 5.4 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB5 | −2 | 11.8 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB6 | −2 | 12.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB25 | −20 | 8.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB88 | −82 | 0.0 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB2 | +5 | 13.4 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB8 | +0 | 11.6 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB14 | −5 | 10.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB9 | +1 | 11.5 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB27 | −16 | 7.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB15 | −3 | 10.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB4 | +9 | 11.9 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB22 | −8 | 8.8 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB16 | −1 | 10.5 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB11 | +5 | 10.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB34 | −17 | 6.2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB26 | −8 | 7.4 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB10 | +9 | 11.4 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB7 | +13 | 12.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB13 | +9 | 11.0 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB17 | +6 | 10.3 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB12 | +12 | 11.1 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB3 | +22 | 12.3 |
| Sam Darnold | QB26 | QB20 | +6 | 9.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB28 | QB19 | +9 | 10.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB29 | QB18 | +11 | 10.2 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Week 7 · Wed, Oct 21
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 7.
Biggest climb: Braelon Allen, RB56 on draft day, RB23 now.
Biggest fall: Saquon Barkley, RB10 on draft day, RB70 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 18.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB4 | −2 | 14.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB9 | −6 | 12.6 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB14 | −10 | 11.1 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB12 | −7 | 11.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB2 | +4 | 15.9 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB42 | −35 | 5.2 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB6 | +2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB19 | −10 | 10.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB70 | −60 | 3.4 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB5 | +6 | 12.1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB11 | +1 | 12.2 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB48 | −35 | 5.0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB3 | +11 | 14.6 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB7 | +8 | 13.1 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB32 | −16 | 6.4 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB71 | −53 | 3.3 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB17 | +2 | 10.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB40 | −20 | 5.8 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB74 | −53 | 3.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB16 | +6 | 10.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB28 | −5 | 7.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB13 | +11 | 11.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB25 | RB20 | +5 | 9.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB8 | +19 | 12.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB28 | RB18 | +10 | 10.0 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB22 | +7 | 8.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB21 | +9 | 9.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB32 | RB10 | +22 | 11.4 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB34 | RB24 | +10 | 8.0 |
| Aaron Jones | RB41 | RB15 | +26 | 10.1 |
| Braelon Allen | RB56 | RB23 | +33 | 8.3 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Week 7 · Wed, Oct 21
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 7.
Biggest climb: Malik Washington, WR66 on draft day, WR23 now.
Biggest fall: D.J. Moore, WR24 on draft day, WR74 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR4 | −3 | 13.4 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR2 | +0 | 17.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR3 | +0 | 15.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR1 | +3 | 16.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR5 | +0 | 14.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR11 | −5 | 10.5 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR6 | +1 | 12.9 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR26 | −18 | 9.2 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR20 | −11 | 10.5 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR12 | −2 | 11.3 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR10 | +1 | 12.6 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR36 | −24 | 7.0 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR16 | −3 | 10.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR14 | +0 | 11.1 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR8 | +7 | 12.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR29 | −13 | 9.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR7 | +10 | 11.8 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR9 | +9 | 11.6 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR22 | −3 | 10.2 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR65 | −45 | 4.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR42 | −21 | 7.0 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR28 | −6 | 9.2 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR17 | +6 | 10.8 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR74 | −50 | 4.3 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR19 | +7 | 9.7 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR15 | +16 | 10.9 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR21 | +14 | 10.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR13 | +23 | 11.3 |
| Matthew Golden | WR51 | WR24 | +27 | 9.9 |
| Jalen Coker | WR54 | WR18 | +36 | 9.8 |
| Malik Washington | WR66 | WR23 | +43 | 9.1 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Week 7 · Wed, Oct 21
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 7.
Biggest climb: Cade Otton, TE28 on draft day, TE16 now.
Biggest fall: Tyler Warren, TE4 on draft day, TE25 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE4 | −3 | 10.1 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 11.7 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE11 | −8 | 7.9 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE25 | −21 | 6.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE8 | −3 | 8.4 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE19 | −13 | 6.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE15 | −8 | 7.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE2 | +6 | 9.5 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE5 | +4 | 9.3 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE6 | +4 | 8.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE29 | −18 | 5.8 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE3 | +9 | 10.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE10 | +3 | 8.0 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE7 | +7 | 8.5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE26 | −11 | 6.1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE9 | +7 | 8.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE30 | −13 | 5.8 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE31 | −13 | 5.5 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE23 | −4 | 6.5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE13 | +7 | 7.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE14 | +7 | 6.8 |
| AJ Barner | TE25 | TE17 | +8 | 7.1 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE27 | TE20 | +7 | 6.2 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE16 | +12 | 7.3 |