Week 4 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Thu, Oct 1
Model vs. Vegas, Week 4: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: JAX @ CIN. Market CIN -2.5, our numbers CIN +3.1.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX @ CIN | SUN 13:00 | -2.5 | +3.1 | 5.6 |
| ARI @ NYG | SUN 13:00 | +2.5 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| NYJ @ CHI | SUN 13:00 | -3.5 | -6.7 | 3.2 |
| IND @ WAS | SUN 09:30 | +3.5 | +0.5 | 3.0 |
| NE @ BUF | SUN 13:00 | -6.5 | -4 | 2.5 |
| TEN @ BAL | SUN 13:00 | -11.5 | -9.1 | 2.4 |
| LAC @ SEA | SUN 16:25 | -7 | -9.4 | 2.4 |
| GB @ TB | SUN 13:00 | +3.5 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| ATL @ NO | MON 20:15 | -2.5 | -0.8 | 1.7 |
| DET @ CAR | SUN 20:20 | +3.5 | +2.1 | 1.4 |
| PIT @ CLE | THU 20:15 | +2.5 | +1.1 | 1.4 |
| KC @ LV | SUN 16:25 | +4.5 | +3.2 | 1.3 |
| LAR @ PHI | SUN 13:00 | +3 | +1.7 | 1.3 |
| DAL @ HOU | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -2.1 | 0.9 |
| MIA @ MIN | SUN 16:05 | -10.5 | -10 | 0.5 |
| DEN @ SF | SUN 16:25 | -3 | -3.2 | 0.2 |
Where the money went
Betting · Sun, Oct 4
Where the money went, Week 4: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
Biggest move: IND @ WAS, 1.5 pts toward IND (WAS +3 to +4.5).
Moved against most bettors: IND @ WAS (59% on WAS, line to IND); DAL @ HOU (80% on DAL, line to HOU).
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ WAS | +3 | +4.5 | 59% | 41% | Reverse |
| DAL @ HOU | -2.5 | -3 | 20% | 20% | Reverse |
| DEN @ SF | -3 | -2.5 | 61% | 64% | Reverse |
| ATL @ NO | -3 | -2 | 46% | 31% | Split |
| ARI @ NYG | +1 | +2.5 | 40% | 32% | |
| LAR @ PHI | +2.5 | +3.5 | 47% | 60% | |
| NE @ BUF | -6.5 | -7 | 66% | 67% | |
| NYJ @ CHI | -3 | -3.5 | 54% | 50% | |
| GB @ TB | +3.5 | +3 | 47% | 53% | |
| LAC @ SEA | -6.5 | -7 | 56% | 61% | |
| TEN @ BAL | -11.5 | -11.5 | 73% | 78% | |
| JAX @ CIN | -2.5 | -2.5 | 37% | 40% | |
| MIA @ MIN | -10 | -10 | 74% | 62% | |
| KC @ LV | +4.5 | +4.5 | 49% | 44% | |
| DET @ CAR | +3.5 | +3.5 | 37% | 36% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Sat, Oct 3
Trench watch, Week 4: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
SEA rush (87) vs LAC protection (3)
BUF rush (94) vs NE protection (32)
LV rush (90) vs KC protection (45)
JAX rush (52) vs CIN protection (26)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 87 | LAC | 3 | +84 | Rush wins |
| BUF | 94 | NE | 32 | +61 | Rush wins |
| LV | 90 | KC | 45 | +45 | Rush wins |
| JAX | 52 | CIN | 26 | +26 | Rush wins |
| TB | 26 | GB | 0 | +26 | Rush wins |
| NE | 74 | BUF | 52 | +23 | Rush wins |
| KC | 32 | LV | 16 | +16 | |
| MIN | 100 | MIA | 84 | +16 | |
| LAC | 84 | SEA | 74 | +10 | |
| WAS | 39 | IND | 29 | +10 | |
| DET | 65 | CAR | 58 | +6 | |
| CIN | 35 | JAX | 35 | +0 | |
| DEN | 97 | SF | 100 | −3 | |
| ATL | 77 | NO | 81 | −3 | |
| DAL | 45 | HOU | 48 | −3 | |
| PHI | 16 | LA | 23 | −6 | |
| ARI | 6 | NYG | 13 | −6 | |
| CAR | 3 | DET | 10 | −6 | |
| MIA | 13 | MIN | 19 | −6 | |
| HOU | 71 | DAL | 77 | −6 | |
| BAL | 61 | TEN | 71 | −10 | |
| CHI | 29 | NYJ | 42 | −13 | |
| LA | 48 | PHI | 68 | −19 | |
| GB | 42 | TB | 65 | −23 | |
| TEN | 58 | BAL | 87 | −29 | |
| NO | 55 | ATL | 90 | −35 | Line wins |
| NYG | 0 | ARI | 39 | −39 | Line wins |
| IND | 19 | WAS | 61 | −42 | Line wins |
| SF | 23 | DEN | 97 | −74 | Line wins |
| NYJ | 10 | CHI | 94 | −84 | Line wins |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Wed, Sep 30
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB3 now.
Biggest fall: Jaxson Dart, QB11 on draft day, QB86 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 15.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB5 | −3 | 13.6 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB7 | −4 | 12.6 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB14 | −10 | 11.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB37 | −32 | 4.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB21 | −15 | 10.2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB25 | −18 | 8.3 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB8 | +0 | 12.5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB13 | −4 | 12.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB12 | −2 | 12.2 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB86 | −75 | 0.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB11 | +1 | 12.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB4 | +9 | 13.7 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 14.3 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB6 | +9 | 13.1 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB9 | +7 | 12.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB20 | −3 | 10.2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB33 | −15 | 5.9 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB22 | −3 | 10.0 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB10 | +10 | 12.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB17 | +5 | 10.4 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB15 | +8 | 11.3 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB16 | +8 | 10.9 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB3 | +22 | 13.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB28 | QB19 | +9 | 10.3 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Wed, Sep 30
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Aaron Jones, RB41 on draft day, RB19 now.
Biggest fall: Devon Achane, RB7 on draft day, RB168 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 18.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB2 | +0 | 15.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB5 | −2 | 13.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB8 | −4 | 12.3 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB12 | −7 | 11.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB4 | +2 | 14.9 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB168 | −161 | 0.0 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB7 | +1 | 12.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB14 | −5 | 10.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB27 | −17 | 8.3 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB3 | +8 | 15.3 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB6 | +6 | 13.2 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB21 | −8 | 9.6 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB11 | +3 | 11.7 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB10 | +5 | 11.8 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB15 | +1 | 10.5 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB16 | +2 | 10.4 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB9 | +10 | 12.0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB23 | −3 | 9.3 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB35 | −14 | 6.8 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB13 | +9 | 10.5 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB29 | −6 | 7.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB20 | +4 | 9.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB17 | +10 | 9.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB28 | RB22 | +6 | 9.4 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB18 | +11 | 9.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB24 | +6 | 9.2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB41 | RB19 | +22 | 9.6 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Wed, Sep 30
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Jalen Coker, WR54 on draft day, WR24 now.
Biggest fall: A.J. Brown, WR8 on draft day, WR59 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR3 | −2 | 14.7 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR8 | −6 | 11.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR2 | +1 | 15.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR1 | +3 | 16.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR7 | −2 | 11.9 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR15 | −9 | 10.4 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR13 | −6 | 10.8 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR59 | −51 | 5.6 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR42 | −33 | 7.1 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR16 | −6 | 10.3 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR4 | +7 | 13.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR10 | +2 | 11.4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR32 | −19 | 8.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR18 | −4 | 10.1 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR6 | +9 | 12.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR27 | −11 | 8.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR17 | +0 | 10.2 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR11 | +7 | 11.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR19 | +0 | 10.0 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR28 | −8 | 8.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR31 | −10 | 8.1 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR30 | −8 | 8.1 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR9 | +14 | 11.5 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR43 | −19 | 6.8 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR20 | +6 | 9.8 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 | WR22 | +7 | 8.9 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR5 | +26 | 12.5 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR21 | +14 | 9.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR14 | +22 | 10.4 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR39 | WR12 | +27 | 10.9 |
| Josh Downs | WR41 | WR23 | +18 | 8.8 |
| Jalen Coker | WR54 | WR24 | +30 | 8.8 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Wed, Sep 30
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Cade Otton, TE28 on draft day, TE8 now.
Biggest fall: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE19 on draft day, TE39 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE6 | −5 | 9.3 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 12.5 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE4 | −1 | 9.6 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE3 | +1 | 9.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE9 | −4 | 8.5 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE11 | −5 | 8.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE12 | −5 | 8.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE10 | −2 | 8.3 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE2 | +7 | 9.8 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE5 | +5 | 9.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE28 | −17 | 6.1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE15 | −3 | 7.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE7 | +6 | 8.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE25 | −11 | 6.5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE19 | −4 | 7.1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE20 | −4 | 7.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE18 | −1 | 7.1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE36 | −18 | 4.8 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE39 | −20 | 4.4 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE23 | −3 | 6.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE17 | +4 | 7.2 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE22 | TE14 | +8 | 7.5 |
| AJ Barner | TE25 | TE13 | +12 | 7.7 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE8 | +20 | 8.5 |