Week 3 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Thu, Sep 24
Model vs. Vegas, Week 3: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: KC @ MIA. Market KC -10.5, our numbers KC -4.5.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ MIA | SUN 13:00 | +10.5 | +4.5 | 6.0 |
| CIN @ PIT | SUN 13:00 | +3.5 | +0.4 | 3.1 |
| LAR @ DEN | SUN 20:20 | +2.5 | PK | 2.5 |
| PHI @ CHI | MON 20:15 | +4.5 | +2.4 | 2.1 |
| NYJ @ DET | SUN 13:00 | -6.5 | -8.6 | 2.1 |
| CAR @ CLE | SUN 13:00 | +3 | +1.2 | 1.8 |
| ATL @ GB | THU 20:15 | -4.5 | -2.8 | 1.7 |
| SEA @ WAS | SUN 13:00 | +7 | +5.5 | 1.5 |
| MIN @ TB | SUN 16:05 | +1.5 | +2.7 | 1.2 |
| LAC @ BUF | SUN 13:00 | -7 | -7.8 | 0.8 |
| HOU @ IND | SUN 13:00 | +2.5 | +1.7 | 0.8 |
| LV @ NO | SUN 16:25 | -3 | -3.8 | 0.8 |
| TEN @ NYG | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -3.8 | 0.8 |
| BAL @ DAL | SUN 16:25 | +3.5 | +3.9 | 0.4 |
| NE @ JAX | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -2.8 | 0.2 |
| ARI @ SF | SUN 16:05 | -8.5 | -8.3 | 0.2 |
Trench watch
Trenches · Sat, Sep 26
Trench watch, Week 3: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
BUF rush (94) vs LAC protection (10)
PIT rush (87) vs CIN protection (23)
KC rush (81) vs MIA protection (32)
DEN rush (97) vs LAR protection (55)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 94 | LAC | 10 | +84 | Rush wins |
| PIT | 87 | CIN | 23 | +65 | Rush wins |
| KC | 81 | MIA | 32 | +48 | Rush wins |
| DEN | 97 | LA | 55 | +42 | Rush wins |
| DET | 74 | NYJ | 42 | +32 | Rush wins |
| NO | 45 | LV | 19 | +26 | Rush wins |
| HOU | 55 | IND | 29 | +26 | |
| TEN | 39 | NYG | 16 | +23 | |
| NE | 65 | JAX | 45 | +19 | |
| TB | 29 | MIN | 13 | +16 | |
| JAX | 52 | NE | 35 | +16 | |
| NYJ | 13 | DET | 0 | +13 | |
| LAC | 84 | BUF | 74 | +10 | |
| DAL | 61 | BAL | 52 | +10 | |
| SF | 32 | ARI | 26 | +6 | |
| MIN | 100 | TB | 94 | +6 | |
| LV | 90 | NO | 90 | +0 | |
| CAR | 0 | CLE | 3 | −3 | |
| CLE | 58 | CAR | 71 | −13 | |
| LA | 68 | DEN | 84 | −16 | |
| WAS | 42 | SEA | 61 | −19 | |
| SEA | 77 | WAS | 97 | −19 | |
| NYG | 16 | TEN | 39 | −23 | |
| BAL | 48 | DAL | 81 | −32 | |
| CHI | 26 | PHI | 58 | −32 | |
| PHI | 23 | CHI | 77 | −55 | Line wins |
| IND | 6 | HOU | 68 | −61 | Line wins |
| MIA | 3 | KC | 65 | −61 | Line wins |
| CIN | 19 | PIT | 87 | −68 | Line wins |
| ARI | 10 | SF | 100 | −90 | Line wins |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB8 now.
Biggest fall: Jaxson Dart, QB11 on draft day, QB85 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 16.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB4 | −2 | 13.7 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB12 | −9 | 12.5 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB16 | −12 | 11.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB25 | −20 | 9.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB6 | +0 | 13.3 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB7 | +0 | 12.9 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB10 | −2 | 12.8 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB11 | −2 | 12.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB5 | +5 | 13.7 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB85 | −74 | 0.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB15 | −3 | 12.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB3 | +10 | 14.3 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 15.1 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB9 | +6 | 12.8 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB13 | +3 | 12.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB17 | +0 | 11.3 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB36 | −18 | 5.7 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB20 | −1 | 10.6 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB14 | +6 | 12.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB19 | +3 | 10.8 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB18 | +5 | 11.0 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB8 | +17 | 12.8 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.
Biggest climb: Aaron Jones, RB41 on draft day, RB19 now.
Biggest fall: Saquon Barkley, RB10 on draft day, RB31 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 17.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB2 | +0 | 16.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB5 | −2 | 14.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB11 | −7 | 11.9 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB17 | −12 | 11.1 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB3 | +3 | 14.5 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB7 | +0 | 13.6 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB8 | +0 | 12.7 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB14 | −5 | 11.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB31 | −21 | 7.7 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB6 | +5 | 13.9 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB4 | +8 | 14.4 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB24 | −11 | 8.8 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB13 | +1 | 11.3 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB10 | +5 | 12.4 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB15 | +1 | 11.2 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB18 | +0 | 10.8 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB9 | +10 | 12.5 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB21 | −1 | 9.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB38 | −17 | 6.7 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB16 | +6 | 11.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB27 | −4 | 8.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB12 | +12 | 11.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB20 | +7 | 9.5 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB22 | +7 | 9.1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB41 | RB19 | +22 | 9.6 |
| Woody Marks | RB45 | RB23 | +22 | 9.0 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.
Biggest climb: Jalen Coker, WR54 on draft day, WR17 now.
Biggest fall: A.J. Brown, WR8 on draft day, WR61 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR4 | −3 | 14.5 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR3 | −1 | 14.7 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR2 | +1 | 15.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR1 | +3 | 17.3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR9 | −4 | 11.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR7 | −1 | 12.2 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR12 | −5 | 10.4 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR61 | −53 | 5.5 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR23 | −14 | 9.5 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR19 | −9 | 9.7 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR5 | +6 | 13.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR8 | +4 | 11.0 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR30 | −17 | 8.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR11 | +3 | 10.7 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR10 | +5 | 10.9 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR26 | −10 | 8.4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR18 | −1 | 9.9 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR16 | +2 | 10.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR14 | +5 | 10.2 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR34 | −14 | 7.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR28 | −7 | 8.2 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR29 | −7 | 8.2 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR22 | +1 | 9.5 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR56 | −32 | 5.9 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR13 | +13 | 10.4 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 | WR20 | +9 | 9.6 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR6 | +25 | 12.6 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR24 | +11 | 8.8 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR21 | +15 | 9.6 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR39 | WR15 | +24 | 10.1 |
| Jalen Coker | WR54 | WR17 | +37 | 10.1 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.
Biggest climb: Pat Freiermuth, TE30 on draft day, TE12 now.
Biggest fall: Oronde Gadsden, TE18 on draft day, TE37 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE10 | −9 | 8.7 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 12.2 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE2 | +1 | 10.4 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE7 | −3 | 9.1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE5 | +0 | 9.4 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE20 | −14 | 7.2 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE8 | −1 | 8.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE9 | −1 | 8.8 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE4 | +5 | 9.6 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE3 | +7 | 9.7 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE28 | −17 | 6.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE19 | −7 | 7.3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE6 | +7 | 9.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE14 | +0 | 8.1 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE16 | −1 | 7.7 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE18 | −2 | 7.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE30 | −13 | 6.1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE37 | −19 | 4.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE29 | −10 | 6.2 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE17 | +3 | 7.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE15 | +6 | 7.8 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE23 | TE13 | +10 | 8.2 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE11 | +17 | 8.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE30 | TE12 | +18 | 8.2 |