Week 6 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Playoff race
Standings · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
The playoff race after Week 6, from 10,000 simulations of the season:
Climbing: SF 44% → 96%, MIN 50% → 90%, KC 52% → 91%
Falling: LAC 49% → 1%, PHI 63% → 25%
Biggest Week 6 swing: LAR, down 22 points.
| Team | Conf | Record | Playoffs | Division | Since preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | NFC | 6-0 | 96% | 78% | +52 pts |
| KC | AFC | 5-0 | 91% | 68% | +39 pts |
| MIN | NFC | 5-0 | 90% | 57% | +40 pts |
| BUF | AFC | 5-1 | 90% | 64% | +19 pts |
| JAX | AFC | 4-2 | 85% | 72% | +20 pts |
| NE | AFC | 4-2 | 73% | 34% | +5 pts |
| DEN | AFC | 4-2 | 72% | 28% | +17 pts |
| SEA | NFC | 3-3 | 69% | 16% | −12 pts |
| DET | NFC | 3-2 | 66% | 21% | −0 pts |
| CAR | NFC | 3-2 | 61% | 56% | +34 pts |
| CHI | NFC | 4-2 | 61% | 13% | +15 pts |
| BAL | AFC | 4-2 | 60% | 31% | −6 pts |
| CIN | AFC | 3-2 | 57% | 28% | +12 pts |
| PIT | AFC | 4-2 | 54% | 26% | +6 pts |
| GB | NFC | 4-2 | 50% | 10% | +4 pts |
| DAL | NFC | 2-4 | 44% | 41% | +5 pts |
| HOU | AFC | 2-4 | 40% | 21% | −20 pts |
| LA | NFC | 2-4 | 37% | 5% | −30 pts |
| CLE | AFC | 4-2 | 35% | 15% | +11 pts |
| NYG | NFC | 3-2-1 | 28% | 25% | +4 pts |
| PHI | NFC | 2-4 | 25% | 23% | −38 pts |
| ATL | NFC | 2-4 | 25% | 18% | −7 pts |
| NO | NFC | 2-4 | 21% | 17% | −16 pts |
| LV | AFC | 3-3 | 16% | 3% | −0 pts |
| IND | AFC | 2-4 | 13% | 7% | −27 pts |
| WAS | NFC | 1-4-1 | 12% | 11% | −15 pts |
| TB | NFC | 1-5 | 10% | 9% | −29 pts |
| NYJ | AFC | 2-4 | 10% | 2% | +0 pts |
| ARI | NFC | 2-4 | 4% | 0% | −8 pts |
| LAC | AFC | 0-6 | 1% | 0% | −47 pts |
| TEN | AFC | 1-5 | 1% | 0% | −11 pts |
| MIA | AFC | 0-5 | 1% | 0% | −16 pts |
Team tiers: offense vs. defense by EPA per play
Teams & QBs · Week 6 · Wed, Oct 21
Team tiers through Week 6: every offense and defense by EPA per play (expected points added, how much each play moved a team's scoring chances).
Best net (offense minus defense): SF +0.24, KC +0.22, MIN +0.13.
Worst: MIA −0.22, LAC −0.17, PHI −0.17.
6 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Team | Offense EPA/play | Defense EPA/play allowed | Net | Offense success rate | Success rate allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.24 | 52% | 43% |
| KC | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.22 | 49% | 40% |
| MIN | −0.10 | −0.23 | +0.13 | 37% | 32% |
| JAX | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.13 | 47% | 43% |
| BAL | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.12 | 47% | 42% |
| CAR | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.10 | 43% | 42% |
| CIN | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.09 | 47% | 44% |
| CHI | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.07 | 47% | 41% |
| LAR | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.06 | 47% | 44% |
| BUF | +0.21 | +0.15 | +0.06 | 49% | 49% |
| NE | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.06 | 45% | 43% |
| SEA | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.04 | 42% | 37% |
| HOU | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | 44% | 42% |
| GB | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | 40% | 45% |
| LV | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | 44% | 45% |
| DET | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | 49% | 48% |
| PIT | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | 42% | 42% |
| NYJ | −0.02 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 44% | 44% |
| DEN | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | 38% | 41% |
| ATL | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | 44% | 41% |
| NYG | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | 43% | 44% |
| CLE | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | 40% | 42% |
| TB | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.05 | 39% | 42% |
| DAL | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.05 | 48% | 49% |
| WAS | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.07 | 41% | 48% |
| IND | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.10 | 43% | 43% |
| ARI | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | 46% | 46% |
| NO | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.11 | 42% | 49% |
| TEN | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.16 | 40% | 43% |
| PHI | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | 37% | 44% |
| LAC | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | 37% | 43% |
| MIA | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.22 | 38% | 49% |
QB efficiency: EPA per dropback vs. CPOE
Teams & QBs · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
Quarterback efficiency through Week 6: EPA per dropback (how much each dropback helped the offense score, sacks and scrambles included) against completion percentage over expected (accuracy once throw difficulty is taken out).
Best EPA per dropback: Purdy (+0.39), Allen (+0.37), Goff (+0.31).
Lowest: Herbert (−0.20), Ward (−0.16), Jones (−0.12).
Most accurate for the throws he attempts: J.Daniels (WAS), +7.4 points of completion rate over expected.
30 quarterbacks with at least 120 dropbacks.
6 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Quarterback | Team | Dropbacks | EPA/dropback | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy | SF | 191 | +0.39 | +5.1 |
| J.Allen | BUF | 203 | +0.37 | +5.1 |
| J.Goff | DET | 207 | +0.31 | +1.3 |
| T.Lawrence | JAX | 201 | +0.27 | +3.4 |
| D.Maye | NE | 215 | +0.23 | +5.2 |
| B.Young | CAR | 218 | +0.22 | +3.0 |
| K.Cousins | LV | 224 | +0.20 | −0.7 |
| P.Mahomes | KC | 175 | +0.18 | +2.5 |
| J.Burrow | CIN | 204 | +0.17 | +6.0 |
| C.Stroud | HOU | 237 | +0.16 | +3.9 |
| J.Daniels | WAS | 145 | +0.14 | +7.4 |
| D.Prescott | DAL | 268 | +0.14 | +0.8 |
| M.Penix | ATL | 125 | +0.12 | −1.5 |
| M.Stafford | LAR | 262 | +0.12 | +0.8 |
| J.Love | GB | 241 | +0.12 | −3.6 |
| G.Smith | NYJ | 206 | +0.07 | +4.2 |
| D.Watson | CLE | 221 | +0.03 | −2.2 |
| J.Brissett | ARI | 249 | +0.01 | +1.7 |
| T.Shough | NO | 256 | 0.00 | −0.7 |
| K.Murray | MIN | 122 | 0.00 | +5.7 |
| J.Hurts | PHI | 179 | −0.03 | −2.2 |
| J.Winston | NYG | 179 | −0.08 | −7.5 |
| S.Darnold | SEA | 167 | −0.10 | −0.1 |
| M.Willis | MIA | 161 | −0.10 | −7.3 |
| B.Nix | DEN | 204 | −0.10 | −2.4 |
| A.Rodgers | PIT | 253 | −0.11 | −0.8 |
| J.Daniels | TB | 123 | −0.11 | −6.6 |
| D.Jones | IND | 239 | −0.12 | −3.4 |
| C.Ward | TEN | 200 | −0.16 | −1.3 |
| J.Herbert | LAC | 219 | −0.20 | −5.7 |
Pass rate over expected
Teams & QBs · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
Pass rate over expected through Week 6: how much more or less often each offense drops back to pass than an average team would in the same down, distance, score and time, in percentage points.
Most pass-heavy: CIN (+5.6), PIT (+4.9), CAR (+4.9).
Most run-heavy: MIA (−11.5), LAC (−9.2), ATL (−7.1).
It measures the play-caller's lean, not how well the passes work.
| Team | Pass rate over expected | Pass rate | Expected | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | +5.6 | 66.9% | 61.3% | 317 |
| PIT | +4.9 | 69.5% | 64.6% | 397 |
| CAR | +4.9 | 64.7% | 59.8% | 357 |
| DAL | +4.0 | 71.0% | 67.0% | 400 |
| GB | +3.8 | 67.8% | 64.0% | 382 |
| KC | +3.8 | 58.5% | 54.7% | 316 |
| SF | +2.8 | 56.7% | 53.9% | 349 |
| LAR | +1.4 | 66.2% | 64.8% | 423 |
| HOU | +0.7 | 65.8% | 65.1% | 392 |
| NE | +0.4 | 59.4% | 59.0% | 399 |
| DET | +0.4 | 62.0% | 61.6% | 342 |
| CLE | +0.2 | 64.1% | 63.9% | 368 |
| ARI | −0.4 | 63.1% | 63.4% | 417 |
| CHI | −0.6 | 56.3% | 56.9% | 453 |
| BUF | −0.7 | 58.5% | 59.3% | 376 |
| WAS | −1.0 | 64.6% | 65.5% | 395 |
| NO | −1.1 | 65.0% | 66.0% | 417 |
| PHI | −1.3 | 65.6% | 66.9% | 366 |
| TB | −1.4 | 65.2% | 66.5% | 396 |
| LV | −2.1 | 62.2% | 64.3% | 397 |
| JAX | −2.5 | 57.2% | 59.7% | 374 |
| DEN | −2.5 | 60.4% | 62.9% | 361 |
| MIN | −2.6 | 58.3% | 60.9% | 314 |
| IND | −2.7 | 60.4% | 63.2% | 407 |
| NYJ | −3.1 | 59.1% | 62.2% | 362 |
| BAL | −3.8 | 56.0% | 59.8% | 377 |
| SEA | −4.2 | 58.1% | 62.3% | 389 |
| NYG | −4.5 | 60.5% | 65.0% | 410 |
| TEN | −5.0 | 64.3% | 69.2% | 333 |
| ATL | −7.1 | 54.5% | 61.6% | 369 |
| LAC | −9.2 | 60.4% | 69.6% | 396 |
| MIA | −11.5 | 58.8% | 70.2% | 291 |
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 13
Model vs. Vegas, Week 6: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: ARI @ LAR. Market LAR -12.5, our numbers LAR -8.3.
Starting QB in doubt, per ESPN: CHI @ ATL, Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, questionable); BAL @ CLE, Lamar Jackson (BAL, out); SEA @ DEN, Drew Lock (SEA, questionable). Our number has the listed starter playing and changes if he sits, so those games are left out of the biggest gap above.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap | Starting QB in doubt (ESPN status) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ ATL | SUN 13:00 | +3 | -1.7 | 4.7 | Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, questionable) |
| ARI @ LAR | SUN 16:05 | -12.5 | -8.3 | 4.2 | |
| NO @ NYG | SUN 13:00 | +1.5 | -1.9 | 3.4 | |
| BUF @ LV | SUN 16:25 | +4.5 | +7 | 2.5 | |
| NYJ @ NE | SUN 13:00 | -7.5 | -9.9 | 2.4 | |
| BAL @ CLE | SUN 13:00 | +4.5 | +6.8 | 2.3 | Lamar Jackson (BAL, out) |
| LAC @ KC | SUN 16:25 | -8.5 | -6.3 | 2.2 | |
| PIT @ TB | SUN 13:00 | +2.5 | +1.2 | 1.3 | |
| WAS @ SF | MON 20:15 | -7.5 | -8.7 | 1.2 | |
| CAR @ PHI | SUN 13:00 | -1.5 | -2.6 | 1.1 | |
| TEN @ IND | SUN 13:00 | -7 | -7.4 | 0.4 | |
| DAL @ GB | SUN 20:20 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 0.4 | |
| SEA @ DEN | THU 20:15 | +3 | +3.2 | 0.2 | Drew Lock (SEA, questionable) |
| HOU @ JAX | SUN 09:30 | -3 | -3.2 | 0.2 |
Implied team totals
Betting · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 13
Implied team totals for Week 6: the points the betting market expects from each team, from the game total and the spread (half the total, plus or minus half the spread).
Highest: LAR 32.5 (vs ARI), BUF 29.0 (at LV), SF 29.0 (vs WAS).
Lowest: LAC 17.0 (at KC), NYJ 18.0 (at NE), CLE 18.5 (vs BAL).
On bye: CIN, DET, MIA, MIN.
The market's numbers, not ours, and not picks.
| Team | Opponent | Implied points | Spread | Game total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | vs ARI | 32.5 | -12.5 | 52.5 |
| BUF | at LV | 29.0 | -4.5 | 53.5 |
| SF | vs WAS | 29.0 | -7.5 | 50.5 |
| GB | vs DAL | 27.0 | -1.5 | 52.5 |
| CHI | at ATL | 26.25 | -3 | 49.5 |
| IND | vs TEN | 25.75 | -7 | 44.5 |
| DAL | at GB | 25.5 | +1.5 | 52.5 |
| KC | vs LAC | 25.5 | -8.5 | 42.5 |
| NE | vs NYJ | 25.5 | -7.5 | 43.5 |
| LV | vs BUF | 24.5 | +4.5 | 53.5 |
| NO | at NYG | 23.5 | -1.5 | 45.5 |
| ATL | vs CHI | 23.25 | +3 | 49.5 |
| BAL | at CLE | 23.0 | -4.5 | 41.5 |
| JAX | vs HOU | 22.75 | -3 | 42.5 |
| NYG | vs NO | 22.0 | +1.5 | 45.5 |
| SEA | at DEN | 21.75 | -3 | 40.5 |
| PHI | vs CAR | 21.5 | -1.5 | 41.5 |
| PIT | at TB | 21.5 | -2.5 | 40.5 |
| WAS | at SF | 21.5 | +7.5 | 50.5 |
| ARI | at LAR | 20.0 | +12.5 | 52.5 |
| CAR | at PHI | 20.0 | +1.5 | 41.5 |
| HOU | at JAX | 19.75 | +3 | 42.5 |
| TB | vs PIT | 19.0 | +2.5 | 40.5 |
| DEN | vs SEA | 18.75 | +3 | 40.5 |
| TEN | at IND | 18.75 | +7 | 44.5 |
| CLE | vs BAL | 18.5 | +4.5 | 41.5 |
| NYJ | at NE | 18.0 | +7.5 | 43.5 |
| LAC | at KC | 17.0 | +8.5 | 42.5 |
Where the money went
Betting · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18
Where the money went, Week 6: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
Biggest move: CAR @ PHI, 4.5 pts toward CAR (PHI -1.5 to +3).
Moved against most bettors: BAL @ CLE (56% on BAL, line to CLE); BUF @ LV (68% on BUF, line to LV).
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ CLE | +4.5 | +3 | 44% | 46% | Reverse |
| BUF @ LV | +6 | +4.5 | 32% | 37% | Reverse |
| LAC @ KC | -8.5 | -7.5 | 69% | 65% | Reverse |
| TEN @ IND | -7 | -6.5 | 77% | 82% | Reverse |
| CAR @ PHI | -1.5 | +3 | 40% | 30% | |
| CHI @ ATL | +3.5 | +1 | 58% | 59% | |
| NO @ NYG | +1.5 | +1 | 56% | 59% | |
| HOU @ JAX | -2.5 | -2.5 | 50% | 48% | |
| NYJ @ NE | -7 | -7 | 77% | 71% | |
| PIT @ TB | +2.5 | +2.5 | 33% | 37% | |
| ARI @ LAR | -12.5 | -12.5 | 74% | 75% | |
| DAL @ GB | -1 | -1 | 39% | 35% | |
| WAS @ SF | -7.5 | -7.5 | 79% | 86% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Week 6 · Sat, Oct 17
Trench watch, Week 6: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
BUF rush (71) vs LV protection (6)
NE rush (68) vs NYJ protection (10)
BAL rush (55) vs CLE protection (3)
KC rush (48) vs LAC protection (0)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 71 | LV | 6 | +65 | Rush wins |
| NE | 68 | NYJ | 10 | +58 | Rush wins |
| BAL | 55 | CLE | 3 | +52 | Rush wins |
| KC | 48 | LAC | 0 | +48 | Rush wins |
| HOU | 74 | JAX | 29 | +45 | Rush wins |
| LAC | 87 | KC | 45 | +42 | Rush wins |
| NO | 29 | NYG | 16 | +13 | |
| DAL | 23 | GB | 13 | +10 | |
| CLE | 81 | BAL | 74 | +6 | |
| LA | 39 | ARI | 35 | +3 | |
| LV | 90 | BUF | 90 | +0 | |
| GB | 65 | DAL | 71 | −6 | |
| ATL | 77 | CHI | 94 | −16 | |
| NYJ | 35 | NE | 52 | −16 | |
| PHI | 6 | CAR | 26 | −19 | |
| TEN | 32 | IND | 55 | −23 | |
| SF | 10 | WAS | 32 | −23 | |
| JAX | 52 | HOU | 81 | −29 | |
| NYG | 13 | NO | 48 | −35 | |
| IND | 26 | TEN | 61 | −35 | |
| CHI | 61 | ATL | 97 | −35 | |
| PIT | 45 | TB | 84 | −39 | Line wins |
| WAS | 42 | SF | 87 | −45 | Line wins |
| TB | 3 | PIT | 58 | −55 | Line wins |
| ARI | 16 | LA | 77 | −61 | Line wins |
| CAR | 0 | PHI | 68 | −68 | Line wins |
Run blocking: yards before contact per carry, offense vs. defense
Trenches · Week 6 · Thu, Oct 22
The run game at the line through Week 6: the yards each team's running backs gain per carry before a defender touches them, against what its defense allows opposing backs before contact.
Most room for their own backs: BUF (3.5), DET (3.2), KC (3.0) yards before contact per carry. Least: NYG (1.5), LV (1.7), PHI (1.7).
Defenses that get to the runner soonest: JAX (1.5), KC (1.6), PIT (1.7) allowed. Latest: LV (3.5), NO (2.9), CHI (2.8).
The league average is 2.3. Running back carries only. Yards before contact are mostly blocking and scheme, but the back's speed and the number of defenders in the box count too; charted by Pro Football Reference, not adjusted for opponent.
6 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Team | Before contact/carry | Before contact/carry allowed | Net | After contact/carry | After contact/carry allowed | RB carries | RB carries faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3.5 | 1.9 | +1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 125 | 138 |
| KC | 3.0 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 125 | 99 |
| PIT | 2.5 | 1.7 | +0.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 113 | 131 |
| MIN | 2.4 | 1.9 | +0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 121 | 95 |
| LAR | 2.8 | 2.3 | +0.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 132 | 145 |
| DET | 3.2 | 2.7 | +0.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 120 | 99 |
| ATL | 2.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 164 | 119 |
| DAL | 2.2 | 1.9 | +0.3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 104 | 147 |
| JAX | 1.8 | 1.5 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 144 | 104 |
| MIA | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 95 | 126 |
| SF | 2.5 | 2.2 | +0.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 126 | 131 |
| BAL | 2.2 | 2.0 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 148 | 126 |
| WAS | 2.2 | 2.0 | +0.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 130 | 122 |
| IND | 2.2 | 2.1 | +0.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 143 | 126 |
| DEN | 2.0 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 119 | 146 |
| TEN | 2.3 | 2.2 | +0.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 113 | 155 |
| SEA | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 150 | 132 |
| HOU | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 116 | 127 |
| NE | 2.3 | 2.4 | −0.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 151 | 119 |
| TB | 2.0 | 2.1 | −0.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 123 | 110 |
| CAR | 2.4 | 2.6 | −0.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 116 | 101 |
| PHI | 1.7 | 1.9 | −0.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 107 | 156 |
| CHI | 2.5 | 2.8 | −0.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 176 | 106 |
| GB | 1.8 | 2.1 | −0.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 107 | 136 |
| ARI | 2.1 | 2.4 | −0.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 138 | 151 |
| CIN | 2.3 | 2.7 | −0.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 98 | 93 |
| LAC | 2.1 | 2.6 | −0.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 136 | 150 |
| CLE | 1.8 | 2.4 | −0.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 103 | 129 |
| NYJ | 2.0 | 2.8 | −0.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 134 | 152 |
| NO | 2.1 | 2.9 | −0.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 131 | 145 |
| NYG | 1.5 | 2.7 | −1.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 138 | 135 |
| LV | 1.7 | 3.5 | −1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 141 | 136 |
The receipts
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
The receipts, Week 6: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.
Average miss: 5.6 pts, 48% within 5.
Biggest boom: Tre Tucker, 10.1 projected, 26.7 scored.
Biggest miss: Derrick Henry, 17.9 projected, 5.0 scored.
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Scored | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 10.1 | 26.7 | +16.6 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 12.3 | 28.5 | +16.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 16.8 | 30.7 | +13.9 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 11.6 | 24.7 | +13.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 15.6 | 27.3 | +11.7 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 12.9 | 23.9 | +11.0 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 16.0 | 27.0 | +10.9 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 8.3 | 19.0 | +10.7 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 14.5 | 24.3 | +9.8 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | PIT | 10.7 | 20.3 | +9.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 13.4 | 23.0 | +9.6 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 7.7 | 17.0 | +9.3 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 13.2 | 22.4 | +9.2 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 7.7 | 15.9 | +8.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 6.9 | 14.9 | +8.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.7 | 20.5 | +7.8 |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 16.0 | 23.8 | +7.8 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 8.4 | 16.2 | +7.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 10.1 | 17.8 | +7.7 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 20.5 | 27.9 | +7.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 18.4 | 25.4 | +7.0 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 6.0 | 12.4 | +6.4 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 7.9 | 14.3 | +6.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 10.2 | 16.4 | +6.2 |
| Luther Burden | WR | CHI | 11.5 | 17.5 | +6.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 15.3 | 21.1 | +5.8 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 12.2 | 17.9 | +5.7 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 10.8 | 15.7 | +4.9 |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 5.2 | 10.1 | +4.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 14.5 | 19.1 | +4.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 9.2 | 13.6 | +4.4 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 15.5 | 19.8 | +4.4 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 9.4 | 13.4 | +4.0 |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | 16.8 | 20.2 | +3.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 15.5 | 18.5 | +3.0 |
| Audric Estime | RB | CLE | 5.7 | 7.9 | +2.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 12.7 | 14.6 | +1.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 13.9 | 15.8 | +1.9 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | 4.4 | 6.0 | +1.6 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 12.3 | 13.3 | +1.0 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 10.6 | 11.2 | +0.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 11.6 | 12.1 | +0.5 |
| Kaelon Black | RB | SF | 4.2 | 4.7 | +0.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 15.7 | 16.0 | +0.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 16.9 | 16.9 | −0.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 8.3 | 7.9 | −0.4 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 18.8 | 18.3 | −0.5 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 13.0 | 12.4 | −0.6 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 9.9 | 9.3 | −0.6 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 18.3 | 17.4 | −1.0 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | 7.8 | 6.7 | −1.1 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 9.8 | 8.7 | −1.1 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 8.9 | 7.7 | −1.2 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 10.7 | 9.4 | −1.3 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 18.0 | 16.5 | −1.5 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 12.7 | 10.9 | −1.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 10.7 | 8.7 | −2.0 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 14.3 | 12.2 | −2.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | RB | SF | 4.2 | 2.0 | −2.2 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 9.1 | 6.9 | −2.2 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 14.8 | 12.3 | −2.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 17.4 | 14.3 | −3.1 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 16.3 | 12.7 | −3.6 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 14.1 | 10.4 | −3.7 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 11.0 | 7.2 | −3.8 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | PHI | 8.8 | 4.4 | −4.4 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 15.6 | 11.0 | −4.6 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 15.7 | 11.0 | −4.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 14.8 | 9.8 | −5.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 13.6 | 8.4 | −5.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 10.9 | 5.2 | −5.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 11.1 | 5.2 | −5.9 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 20.0 | 14.0 | −6.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 12.9 | 6.9 | −6.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 16.7 | 10.5 | −6.2 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LA | 13.4 | 6.9 | −6.5 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 10.6 | 3.7 | −6.9 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 14.1 | 7.2 | −6.9 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 17.1 | 9.4 | −7.7 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 17.6 | 9.7 | −7.9 |
| Harold Fannin | TE | CLE | 10.1 | 1.9 | −8.2 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | 8.2 | 0.0 | −8.2 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | 9.9 | 1.4 | −8.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 12.5 | 3.6 | −8.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 10.0 | 0.0 | −10.0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 11.1 | 1.0 | −10.1 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 11.6 | 0.0 | −11.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 19.4 | 7.3 | −12.1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 17.9 | 5.0 | −12.9 |
Receiver usage: target share vs. air-yards share
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
Receiver usage through Week 6: each wide receiver and tight end's share of his team's targets against his share of its air yards (how far downfield the throws to him travel).
Biggest target shares: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 35%), D.Smith (PHI, 33%), P.Nacua (LAR, 32%).
Biggest air-yards shares: C.Tate (TEN, 51%), J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 48%), D.Smith (PHI, 48%).
Shares are of the team's totals in the games each player played. 98 receivers with at least 4 targets a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Targets | Target share | Air yards | Air-yards share | Avg depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 66 | 35% | 696 | 48% | 10.5 |
| D.Smith | WR | PHI | 41 | 33% | 502 | 48% | 12.2 |
| P.Nacua | WR | LAR | 52 | 32% | 495 | 41% | 9.5 |
| C.Tate | WR | TEN | 44 | 27% | 579 | 51% | 13.2 |
| D.London | WR | ATL | 46 | 29% | 470 | 44% | 10.2 |
| C.Olave | WR | NO | 61 | 27% | 782 | 44% | 12.8 |
| Z.Flowers | WR | BAL | 42 | 31% | 373 | 34% | 8.9 |
| C.Lamb | WR | DAL | 69 | 29% | 679 | 39% | 9.8 |
| G.Wilson | WR | NYJ | 48 | 29% | 463 | 39% | 9.6 |
| M.Nabers | WR | NYG | 61 | 30% | 688 | 35% | 11.3 |
| P.Washington | WR | JAX | 46 | 26% | 599 | 41% | 13.0 |
| M.Golden | WR | GB | 57 | 26% | 817 | 41% | 14.3 |
| A.St. Brown | WR | DET | 57 | 30% | 465 | 31% | 8.2 |
| B.Bowers | TE | LV | 43 | 28% | 438 | 35% | 10.2 |
| M.Evans | WR | SF | 39 | 23% | 571 | 43% | 14.6 |
| Mi.Wilson | WR | ARI | 58 | 25% | 605 | 38% | 10.4 |
| M.Washington | WR | MIA | 36 | 28% | 424 | 32% | 11.8 |
| T.Higgins | WR | CIN | 43 | 23% | 573 | 42% | 13.3 |
| E.Egbuka | WR | TB | 49 | 26% | 475 | 35% | 9.7 |
| D.Metcalf | WR | PIT | 52 | 24% | 627 | 38% | 12.1 |
| J.Jefferson | WR | MIN | 24 | 25% | 263 | 36% | 11.0 |
| T.McMillan | WR | CAR | 48 | 26% | 550 | 32% | 11.5 |
| D.Boston | WR | CLE | 34 | 20% | 564 | 45% | 16.6 |
| I.Likely | TE | NYG | 59 | 29% | 478 | 24% | 8.1 |
| J.Addison | WR | MIN | 22 | 22% | 272 | 37% | 12.4 |
| N.Collins | WR | HOU | 30 | 23% | 387 | 34% | 12.9 |
| J.Waddle | WR | DEN | 38 | 22% | 349 | 37% | 9.2 |
| T.McBride | TE | ARI | 65 | 29% | 355 | 22% | 5.5 |
| J.Coker | WR | CAR | 35 | 24% | 400 | 29% | 11.4 |
| D.Adams | WR | LAR | 49 | 20% | 759 | 37% | 15.5 |
| G.Pickens | WR | DAL | 52 | 22% | 582 | 33% | 11.2 |
| C.Watson | WR | GB | 48 | 22% | 651 | 33% | 13.6 |
| L.Burden | WR | CHI | 43 | 22% | 362 | 28% | 8.4 |
| J.Downs | WR | IND | 42 | 21% | 451 | 28% | 10.7 |
| R.Odunze | WR | CHI | 33 | 17% | 444 | 34% | 13.5 |
| S.Diggs | WR | WAS | 38 | 23% | 319 | 21% | 8.4 |
| J.Chase | WR | CIN | 38 | 20% | 350 | 26% | 9.2 |
| K.Allen | WR | IND | 40 | 23% | 292 | 20% | 7.3 |
| G.Kittle | TE | SF | 36 | 22% | 288 | 22% | 8.0 |
| C.Sutton | WR | DEN | 28 | 16% | 306 | 32% | 10.9 |
| X.Worthy | WR | KC | 29 | 20% | 240 | 25% | 8.3 |
| W.Robinson | WR | TEN | 37 | 22% | 217 | 19% | 5.9 |
| D.Vele | WR | NO | 43 | 19% | 443 | 25% | 10.3 |
| D.Wicks | WR | PHI | 32 | 17% | 420 | 28% | 13.1 |
| D.Moore | WR | BUF | 20 | 18% | 303 | 27% | 15.2 |
| J.Williams | WR | DET | 29 | 15% | 479 | 32% | 16.5 |
| T.Tucker | WR | LV | 35 | 17% | 520 | 29% | 14.9 |
| T.McLaurin | WR | WAS | 27 | 18% | 347 | 26% | 12.9 |
| T.Hockenson | TE | MIN | 27 | 21% | 178 | 20% | 6.6 |
| R.Rice | WR | KC | 17 | 19% | 126 | 24% | 7.4 |
| M.Hollins | WR | NE | 20 | 17% | 297 | 27% | 14.8 |
| T.Harris | WR | LAC | 25 | 18% | 285 | 24% | 11.4 |
| K.Concepcion | WR | CLE | 35 | 20% | 231 | 18% | 6.6 |
| M.Andrews | TE | BAL | 33 | 20% | 219 | 16% | 6.6 |
| T.Warren | TE | IND | 36 | 22% | 145 | 12% | 4.0 |
| S.LaPorta | TE | DET | 37 | 20% | 232 | 15% | 6.3 |
| X.Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 34 | 17% | 406 | 22% | 11.9 |
| D.Kincaid | TE | BUF | 29 | 18% | 271 | 19% | 9.3 |
| B.Strange | TE | JAX | 33 | 19% | 254 | 17% | 7.7 |
| R.Wilson | WR | PIT | 25 | 14% | 381 | 26% | 15.2 |
| T.Kelce | TE | KC | 27 | 18% | 168 | 17% | 6.2 |
| K.Shakir | WR | BUF | 32 | 20% | 196 | 13% | 6.1 |
| K.Coleman | WR | BUF | 24 | 15% | 343 | 24% | 14.3 |
| D.Douglas | WR | NE | 30 | 17% | 328 | 19% | 10.9 |
| Q.Johnston | WR | LAC | 22 | 14% | 307 | 25% | 14.0 |
| R.Shaheed | WR | SEA | 27 | 14% | 337 | 23% | 12.5 |
| J.Meyers | WR | JAX | 28 | 16% | 297 | 20% | 10.6 |
| R.Doubs | WR | NE | 24 | 13% | 423 | 25% | 17.6 |
| H.Fannin | TE | CLE | 30 | 17% | 184 | 15% | 6.1 |
| G.Bernard | WR | PIT | 32 | 18% | 168 | 14% | 5.2 |
| D.Schultz | TE | HOU | 37 | 18% | 227 | 12% | 6.1 |
| D.Goedert | TE | PHI | 24 | 18% | 146 | 13% | 6.1 |
| A.Williams | WR | WAS | 26 | 14% | 305 | 18% | 11.7 |
| C.Loveland | TE | CHI | 30 | 15% | 178 | 14% | 5.9 |
| C.Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 20 | 16% | 135 | 12% | 6.8 |
| C.Otton | TE | TB | 29 | 16% | 181 | 13% | 6.2 |
| K.Raymond | WR | CHI | 29 | 15% | 174 | 13% | 6.0 |
| T.Kraft | TE | GB | 37 | 17% | 189 | 9% | 5.1 |
| R.Flournoy | WR | DAL | 36 | 15% | 225 | 13% | 6.2 |
| L.Treadwell | WR | IND | 24 | 12% | 317 | 20% | 13.2 |
| C.Kupp | WR | SEA | 25 | 13% | 215 | 15% | 8.6 |
| P.Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 29 | 13% | 243 | 15% | 8.4 |
| M.Fields | WR | NYG | 25 | 12% | 339 | 17% | 13.6 |
| M.Mayer | TE | LV | 34 | 16% | 153 | 9% | 4.5 |
| C.Godwin | WR | TB | 29 | 16% | 127 | 9% | 4.4 |
| J.Johnson | TE | NO | 34 | 15% | 175 | 10% | 5.1 |
| K.Sadiq | TE | NYJ | 24 | 14% | 139 | 12% | 5.8 |
| M.Lemon | WR | PHI | 28 | 15% | 145 | 10% | 5.2 |
| K.Bourne | WR | ARI | 30 | 13% | 159 | 10% | 5.3 |
| H.Henry | TE | NE | 24 | 13% | 150 | 9% | 6.2 |
| T.Higbee | TE | LAR | 29 | 12% | 221 | 11% | 7.6 |
| D.Samuel | WR | SF | 20 | 15% | 51 | 5% | 2.5 |
| D.Waller | TE | CAR | 21 | 12% | 184 | 11% | 8.8 |
| M.Pittman | WR | PIT | 12 | 11% | 113 | 10% | 9.4 |
| J.Metchie | WR | CAR | 13 | 11% | 109 | 10% | 8.4 |
| A.Barner | TE | SEA | 24 | 13% | 59 | 4% | 2.5 |
| T.Ferguson | TE | LAR | 12 | 11% | 79 | 7% | 6.6 |
| J.Ferguson | TE | DAL | 24 | 10% | 117 | 7% | 4.9 |
Workload vs. points: expected fantasy points vs. actual
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
Workload vs. points through Week 6: expected PPR points per game (what an average player scores on the same carries and targets) against what each player has actually scored.
Furthest above their workload: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+8.6), Zay Flowers (+4.8), Justin Jefferson (+4.5) points a game.
Furthest below: Michael Wilson (−5.5), Ashton Jeanty (−4.3), Jadarian Price (−4.3).
Workload is the steadier half, so big gaps tend to close: in 2024 and 2025 the players furthest above theirs after four weeks kept under a third of the gap the rest of the way, and the ones furthest below got back to even. A tendency across players, not a forecast for any one of them.
119 running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with at least 8 expected points a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Games | Expected pts/game | Actual pts/game | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 6 | 18.9 | 27.5 | +8.6 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 5 | 14.1 | 18.9 | +4.8 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 4 | 11.4 | 15.9 | +4.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 6 | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 5 | 16.0 | 19.6 | +3.6 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 6 | 15.7 | 18.9 | +3.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 3 | 9.4 | 12.7 | +3.3 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 5 | 9.1 | 12.4 | +3.3 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 4 | 15.1 | 18.4 | +3.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 6 | 18.3 | 21.4 | +3.1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 5 | 24.7 | 27.6 | +2.9 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 6 | 14.3 | 17.1 | +2.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 4 | 9.1 | 11.8 | +2.6 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 6 | 13.3 | 15.8 | +2.6 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 6 | 8.4 | 10.9 | +2.5 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 6 | 10.7 | 13.1 | +2.4 |
| Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | 6 | 9.6 | 11.9 | +2.3 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 6 | 13.6 | 15.8 | +2.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 5 | 14.1 | 16.0 | +1.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 5 | 12.1 | 13.9 | +1.8 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 6 | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LAR | 6 | 15.2 | 17.0 | +1.8 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 6 | 16.5 | 18.2 | +1.7 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 6 | 8.0 | 9.7 | +1.7 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 4 | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 6 | 9.0 | 10.6 | +1.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | 6 | 8.8 | 10.1 | +1.4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 5 | 29.2 | 30.6 | +1.3 |
| Germie Bernard | WR | PIT | 5 | 9.3 | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 6 | 9.7 | 11.0 | +1.2 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | 6 | 8.7 | 9.9 | +1.2 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 4 | 15.8 | 17.0 | +1.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 5 | 8.7 | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 5 | 12.8 | 14.0 | +1.2 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 4 | 10.8 | 12.0 | +1.2 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 6 | 17.7 | 18.8 | +1.1 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 6 | 14.2 | 15.3 | +1.1 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 4 | 19.5 | 20.6 | +1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 6 | 13.7 | 14.7 | +1.0 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 6 | 13.9 | 14.7 | +0.9 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 4 | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 6 | 8.7 | 9.5 | +0.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 6 | 9.3 | 10.1 | +0.8 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 5 | 9.0 | 9.8 | +0.7 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | 6 | 9.4 | 10.1 | +0.7 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 6 | 17.5 | 18.2 | +0.6 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 5 | 14.7 | 15.3 | +0.6 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 5 | 14.5 | 15.1 | +0.6 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 6 | 19.4 | 19.8 | +0.5 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 6 | 9.1 | 9.5 | +0.4 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 6 | 9.6 | 10.0 | +0.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 6 | 21.5 | 21.8 | +0.3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | SF | 5 | 9.0 | 9.3 | +0.3 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | NE | 4 | 8.8 | 9.0 | +0.2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 6 | 14.2 | 14.3 | +0.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 5 | 8.9 | 9.0 | +0.1 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 5 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 0.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 5 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 0.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | PHI | 6 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 6 | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 6 | 19.7 | 19.5 | −0.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 5 | 9.0 | 8.7 | −0.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 6 | 20.0 | 19.8 | −0.3 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 4 | 9.4 | 9.1 | −0.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 6 | 9.7 | 9.3 | −0.4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 6 | 17.6 | 17.1 | −0.5 |
| Tre Harris | WR | LAC | 5 | 8.1 | 7.5 | −0.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 6 | 11.3 | 10.7 | −0.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 5 | 12.3 | 11.5 | −0.8 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | −0.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 6 | 21.1 | 20.3 | −0.8 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 4 | 9.2 | 8.3 | −0.9 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 5 | 15.0 | 14.0 | −1.0 |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 6 | 9.9 | 8.9 | −1.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 6 | 10.3 | 9.2 | −1.1 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 6 | 18.3 | 17.2 | −1.1 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 3 | 15.3 | 14.2 | −1.1 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 4 | 24.1 | 22.9 | −1.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 6 | 10.2 | 9.0 | −1.2 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | CHI | 3 | 9.7 | 8.5 | −1.2 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | −1.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | −1.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 6 | 10.9 | 9.6 | −1.4 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 5 | 11.7 | 10.2 | −1.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 6 | 18.9 | 17.3 | −1.6 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 6 | 10.4 | 8.7 | −1.6 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 6 | 18.5 | 16.8 | −1.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | −1.8 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 6 | 14.1 | 12.2 | −1.9 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 5 | 12.1 | 10.3 | −1.9 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 6 | 9.2 | 7.3 | −1.9 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 5 | 12.1 | 10.0 | −2.0 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 5 | 13.0 | 10.9 | −2.0 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 6 | 15.9 | 13.6 | −2.2 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 6 | 9.3 | 7.1 | −2.2 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | −2.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 5 | 23.1 | 20.8 | −2.3 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | NO | 5 | 9.0 | 6.6 | −2.4 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 6 | 10.1 | 7.5 | −2.6 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 6 | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | −2.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | PIT | 3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | −2.6 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | 6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | NO | 3 | 13.0 | 10.3 | −2.7 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 5 | 14.0 | 11.3 | −2.7 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 6 | 11.7 | 8.9 | −2.7 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 6 | 14.8 | 11.8 | −2.9 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 6 | 12.3 | 9.4 | −3.0 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 6 | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.1 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 5 | 16.1 | 13.0 | −3.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 6 | 8.4 | 5.2 | −3.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 6 | 11.5 | 8.3 | −3.2 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 3 | 11.5 | 8.2 | −3.3 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 6 | 10.6 | 7.1 | −3.5 |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | 3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | −4.3 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 6 | 21.0 | 16.7 | −4.3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 6 | 17.3 | 11.9 | −5.5 |
Running back yards before and after contact
Fantasy · Week 6 · Thu, Oct 22
Running back yards before and after contact through Week 6: each back's yards per carry before the first defender touches him (mostly the room he is given by his blockers and the scheme) against his yards per carry after it (mostly his own work).
Most yards after contact per carry: Kenneth Walker III (KC, 3.0), Bijan Robinson (ATL, 2.9), Jaylen Warren (PIT, 2.8).
Most room before contact: James Cook (BUF, 3.6), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 3.4), Kenneth Walker III (KC, 3.2).
Least room: Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 1.5), Ashton Jeanty (LV, 1.5), David Montgomery (HOU, 1.6).
The average running back carry has gained 2.3 yards before contact and 1.8 after. 36 backs with at least 48 carries; charted by Pro Football Reference.
6 weeks is a small sample: in 2024 and 2025, where a back stood after four weeks said little about the rest of his season, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Running back | Team | Carries | Yards/carry | Before contact/carry | After contact/carry | Share after contact | Broken tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 106 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 48% | 13 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 111 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 50% | 7 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 84 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 52% | 9 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 96 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 55% | 16 |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 60 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 47% | 2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 94 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 60% | 8 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL | 53 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 60% | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 80 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 44% | 6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 89 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 44% | 10 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 130 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 51% | 5 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 74 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 48% | 6 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 81 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 55% | 3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 77 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 41% | 2 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 94 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 44% | 5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 122 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 45% | 5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 67 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 49% | 2 |
| James Cook | BUF | 117 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 33% | 8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 71 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 45% | 2 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 80 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 46% | 9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 98 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 52% | 7 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 49 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 42% | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 81 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 49% | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 97 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 38% | 4 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 85 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 41% | 3 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 87 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 38% | 3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 73 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 49% | 6 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 58 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 41% | 4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 87 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 42% | 4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 105 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 30% | 7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 53 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 47% | 5 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 67 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 39% | 1 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 51 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 42% | 5 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 71 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 38% | 6 |
| Kendre Miller | NO | 49 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 41% | 1 |
| David Montgomery | HOU | 52 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 41% | 3 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 48 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 38% | 2 |
Rush yards over expected vs. stacked boxes
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 20
Rush yards over expected through Week 6: how many more yards per carry each running back has gained than an average back would on the same carries (the NFL's Next Gen Stats model, built on where every blocker and defender was at the handoff), against how often he runs into a box of eight or more defenders.
Most yards over expected per carry: Kenneth Walker III (KC, +2.69), Bijan Robinson (ATL, +1.62), Jaylen Warren (PIT, +1.40).
Fewest: MarShawn Lloyd (GB, −1.55), Kendre Miller (NO, −0.96), J.K. Dobbins (DEN, −0.90).
Most loaded boxes: Kendre Miller (NO, 35%), Derrick Henry (BAL, 32%), Tyler Allgeier (ARI, 32%) of carries. Fewest: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS, 6%), MarShawn Lloyd (GB, 15%), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 15%).
36 running backs with at least 48 carries.
6 weeks is a small sample, and a long run or two moves this number a lot, so it describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Running back | Team | Carries | Yards/carry | Yards over expected/carry | Yards over expected | Carries over expected | 8+ in the box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 106 | 6.3 | +2.69 | +277 | 45% | 27% |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 111 | 5.8 | +1.62 | +170 | 49% | 22% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 84 | 5.5 | +1.40 | +113 | 52% | 24% |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 60 | 5.4 | +1.17 | +66 | 46% | 22% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 89 | 4.8 | +0.98 | +86 | 43% | 25% |
| James Cook | BUF | 117 | 5.4 | +0.93 | +106 | 46% | 23% |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 74 | 4.2 | +0.74 | +54 | 52% | 27% |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 96 | 4.7 | +0.65 | +61 | 43% | 21% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 105 | 4.8 | +0.52 | +53 | 44% | 19% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 80 | 4.9 | +0.50 | +39 | 42% | 25% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 71 | 3.7 | +0.38 | +26 | 43% | 24% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 77 | 4.5 | +0.22 | +17 | 40% | 26% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 87 | 4.0 | +0.17 | +15 | 48% | 18% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 130 | 4.1 | +0.09 | +11 | 34% | 32% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 94 | 4.1 | +0.08 | +8 | 40% | 15% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 49 | 4.0 | +0.05 | +2 | 35% | 16% |
| Brian Robinson | ATL | 53 | 4.0 | −0.07 | −3 | 43% | 19% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 85 | 3.7 | −0.11 | −9 | 43% | 20% |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 51 | 3.2 | −0.15 | −8 | 33% | 29% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 122 | 4.0 | −0.16 | −19 | 35% | 19% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 98 | 3.2 | −0.32 | −31 | 34% | 31% |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 67 | 3.7 | −0.39 | −26 | 42% | 24% |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 97 | 4.2 | −0.40 | −38 | 40% | 22% |
| David Montgomery | HOU | 52 | 2.7 | −0.43 | −22 | 35% | 31% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 94 | 4.2 | −0.44 | −39 | 30% | 22% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 67 | 3.6 | −0.45 | −30 | 24% | 6% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 58 | 3.5 | −0.46 | −25 | 33% | 24% |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 73 | 3.0 | −0.48 | −35 | 35% | 23% |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 80 | 3.6 | −0.51 | −41 | 38% | 24% |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 53 | 3.0 | −0.53 | −28 | 34% | 32% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 81 | 3.6 | −0.54 | −44 | 33% | 22% |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 71 | 3.5 | −0.70 | −49 | 34% | 25% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 87 | 3.5 | −0.81 | −70 | 30% | 22% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 81 | 3.3 | −0.90 | −72 | 25% | 17% |
| Kendre Miller | NO | 49 | 3.1 | −0.96 | −47 | 31% | 35% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 48 | 2.5 | −1.55 | −75 | 27% | 15% |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 13
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 6.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB4 now.
Biggest fall: Lamar Jackson, QB2 on draft day, QB36 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 14.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB36 | −34 | 5.7 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB8 | −5 | 11.6 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB5 | −1 | 12.6 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB22 | −17 | 9.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB10 | −4 | 11.2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB23 | −16 | 9.3 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB7 | +1 | 11.8 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB13 | −4 | 11.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB12 | −2 | 11.1 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB29 | −18 | 7.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB20 | −8 | 9.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB3 | +10 | 12.8 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 14.0 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB9 | +6 | 11.6 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB17 | −1 | 10.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB34 | −17 | 6.3 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB31 | −13 | 7.1 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB15 | +4 | 10.6 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB6 | +14 | 12.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB18 | +4 | 9.9 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB14 | +9 | 10.8 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB11 | +13 | 11.2 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB4 | +21 | 11.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB28 | QB19 | +9 | 9.8 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 13
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 6.
Biggest climb: Aaron Jones, RB41 on draft day, RB17 now.
Biggest fall: Saquon Barkley, RB10 on draft day, RB53 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 18.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB2 | +0 | 15.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB6 | −3 | 13.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB11 | −7 | 11.8 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB13 | −8 | 11.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB3 | +3 | 15.3 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB43 | −36 | 5.5 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB10 | −2 | 12.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB19 | −10 | 9.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB53 | −43 | 4.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB4 | +7 | 13.2 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB8 | +4 | 12.7 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB24 | −11 | 8.3 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB9 | +5 | 12.7 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB5 | +10 | 13.2 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB32 | −16 | 6.6 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB57 | −39 | 3.7 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB12 | +7 | 11.4 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB18 | +2 | 9.5 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB48 | −27 | 4.7 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB14 | +8 | 11.1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB34 | −11 | 6.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB16 | +8 | 10.4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB25 | RB20 | +5 | 9.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB7 | +20 | 12.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB28 | RB22 | +6 | 8.9 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB23 | +6 | 8.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB21 | +9 | 8.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB32 | RB15 | +17 | 9.7 |
| Aaron Jones | RB41 | RB17 | +24 | 10.3 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 13
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 6.
Biggest climb: Malik Washington, WR66 on draft day, WR23 now.
Biggest fall: D.J. Moore, WR24 on draft day, WR77 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR5 | −4 | 13.3 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR3 | −1 | 14.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR2 | +1 | 15.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR1 | +3 | 15.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR6 | −1 | 13.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR14 | −8 | 10.9 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR8 | −1 | 12.3 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR52 | −44 | 5.9 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR16 | −7 | 10.4 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR13 | −3 | 11.0 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR4 | +7 | 14.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR15 | −3 | 10.1 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR24 | −11 | 9.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR28 | −14 | 8.3 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR7 | +8 | 12.7 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR27 | −11 | 8.4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR12 | +5 | 10.2 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR9 | +9 | 12.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR17 | +2 | 10.1 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR59 | −39 | 5.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR31 | −10 | 7.6 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR26 | −4 | 8.7 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR18 | +5 | 9.9 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR77 | −53 | 4.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR21 | +5 | 9.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 | WR20 | +9 | 9.7 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR11 | +20 | 11.3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR10 | +26 | 11.3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR39 | WR19 | +20 | 9.8 |
| Matthew Golden | WR51 | WR22 | +29 | 9.4 |
| Malik Washington | WR66 | WR23 | +43 | 9.2 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Week 6 · Tue, Oct 13
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 6.
Biggest climb: Cade Otton, TE28 on draft day, TE11 now.
Biggest fall: Jake Ferguson, TE11 on draft day, TE29 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE3 | −2 | 9.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 11.4 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE12 | −9 | 7.8 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE5 | −1 | 9.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE7 | −2 | 9.0 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE10 | −4 | 8.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE19 | −12 | 6.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE4 | +4 | 9.5 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE2 | +7 | 9.7 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE9 | +1 | 8.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE29 | −18 | 6.0 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE8 | +4 | 8.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE16 | −3 | 6.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE6 | +8 | 9.2 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE15 | +0 | 7.3 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE13 | +3 | 7.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE22 | −5 | 6.8 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE36 | −18 | 5.0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE24 | −5 | 6.8 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE27 | −7 | 6.3 |
| AJ Barner | TE25 | TE14 | +11 | 7.5 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE11 | +17 | 8.0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE30 | TE20 | +10 | 6.8 |