Week 5 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Playoff race
Standings · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
The playoff race after Week 5, from 10,000 simulations of the season:
Climbing: SF 44% → 92%, MIN 50% → 88%, KC 52% → 87%
Falling: LAC 49% → 3%, HOU 60% → 24%
Biggest Week 5 swing: GB, up 12 points.
| Team | Conf | Record | Playoffs | Division | Since preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | NFC | 5-0 | 92% | 63% | +48 pts |
| JAX | AFC | 4-1 | 90% | 80% | +25 pts |
| MIN | NFC | 5-0 | 88% | 56% | +38 pts |
| KC | AFC | 4-0 | 87% | 66% | +35 pts |
| BUF | AFC | 4-1 | 87% | 61% | +15 pts |
| SEA | NFC | 3-2 | 74% | 24% | −6 pts |
| BAL | AFC | 4-1 | 72% | 43% | +5 pts |
| NE | AFC | 3-2 | 71% | 35% | +3 pts |
| DEN | AFC | 3-2 | 65% | 27% | +10 pts |
| DET | NFC | 3-2 | 65% | 25% | −2 pts |
| CIN | AFC | 3-2 | 64% | 31% | +20 pts |
| LA | NFC | 2-3 | 58% | 13% | −9 pts |
| PIT | AFC | 3-2 | 46% | 18% | −1 pts |
| CHI | NFC | 3-2 | 46% | 10% | +0 pts |
| CAR | NFC | 2-2 | 46% | 42% | +19 pts |
| PHI | NFC | 2-3 | 42% | 36% | −22 pts |
| GB | NFC | 3-2 | 40% | 9% | −6 pts |
| ATL | NFC | 2-3 | 35% | 29% | +3 pts |
| DAL | NFC | 2-3 | 35% | 28% | −4 pts |
| NYG | NFC | 3-1-1 | 32% | 26% | +8 pts |
| IND | AFC | 2-3 | 27% | 11% | −13 pts |
| LV | AFC | 3-2 | 24% | 7% | +8 pts |
| HOU | AFC | 1-4 | 24% | 9% | −36 pts |
| CLE | AFC | 3-2 | 23% | 8% | −2 pts |
| NO | NFC | 1-4 | 19% | 16% | −18 pts |
| TB | NFC | 1-4 | 14% | 13% | −25 pts |
| NYJ | AFC | 2-3 | 14% | 4% | +5 pts |
| WAS | NFC | 1-3-1 | 12% | 9% | −15 pts |
| LAC | AFC | 0-5 | 3% | 1% | −45 pts |
| ARI | NFC | 1-4 | 2% | 0% | −10 pts |
| MIA | AFC | 0-5 | 1% | 0% | −16 pts |
| TEN | AFC | 0-5 | 1% | 0% | −11 pts |
Team tiers: offense vs. defense by EPA per play
Teams & QBs · Week 5 · Wed, Oct 14
Team tiers through Week 5: every offense and defense by EPA per play (expected points added, how much each play moved a team's scoring chances).
Best net (offense minus defense): SF +0.26, KC +0.19, JAX +0.18.
Worst: MIA −0.22, TEN −0.19, PHI −0.16.
5 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Team | Offense EPA/play | Defense EPA/play allowed | Net | Offense success rate | Success rate allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.26 | 52% | 42% |
| KC | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.19 | 48% | 42% |
| JAX | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.18 | 45% | 41% |
| MIN | −0.10 | −0.23 | +0.13 | 37% | 32% |
| BAL | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.13 | 49% | 42% |
| CIN | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.09 | 47% | 44% |
| LAR | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.09 | 47% | 43% |
| CAR | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.07 | 43% | 43% |
| NE | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.06 | 45% | 42% |
| BUF | +0.21 | +0.15 | +0.06 | 49% | 49% |
| SEA | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.04 | 42% | 38% |
| CHI | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 47% | 42% |
| LV | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | 44% | 45% |
| HOU | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | 43% | 40% |
| ATL | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | 46% | 40% |
| NYJ | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | 43% | 45% |
| DET | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | 49% | 48% |
| GB | −0.01 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 40% | 45% |
| DEN | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | 40% | 41% |
| PIT | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 43% | 45% |
| DAL | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.02 | 49% | 51% |
| TB | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | 41% | 42% |
| CLE | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | 40% | 44% |
| NYG | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | 43% | 47% |
| WAS | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | 40% | 47% |
| IND | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.11 | 43% | 43% |
| NO | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | 44% | 50% |
| LAC | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | 38% | 42% |
| ARI | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.15 | 46% | 45% |
| PHI | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | 36% | 45% |
| TEN | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.19 | 40% | 43% |
| MIA | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.22 | 38% | 49% |
QB efficiency: EPA per dropback vs. CPOE
Teams & QBs · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
Quarterback efficiency through Week 5: EPA per dropback (how much each dropback helped the offense score, sacks and scrambles included) against completion percentage over expected (accuracy once throw difficulty is taken out).
Best EPA per dropback: Purdy (+0.42), Allen (+0.38), Jackson (+0.38).
Lowest: Mayfield (−0.23), Herbert (−0.18), Ward (−0.16).
Most accurate for the throws he attempts: Jackson, +8.1 points of completion rate over expected.
30 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
5 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Quarterback | Team | Dropbacks | EPA/dropback | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy | SF | 157 | +0.42 | +4.7 |
| J.Allen | BUF | 167 | +0.38 | +5.0 |
| L.Jackson | BAL | 111 | +0.38 | +8.1 |
| J.Goff | DET | 207 | +0.31 | +1.3 |
| T.Lawrence | JAX | 158 | +0.27 | +5.9 |
| B.Young | CAR | 175 | +0.25 | +5.7 |
| D.Prescott | DAL | 211 | +0.22 | +1.9 |
| P.Mahomes | KC | 143 | +0.21 | +0.8 |
| D.Maye | NE | 180 | +0.20 | +6.7 |
| J.Daniels | WAS | 100 | +0.19 | +2.1 |
| K.Cousins | LV | 183 | +0.19 | +1.4 |
| J.Burrow | CIN | 204 | +0.17 | +6.0 |
| M.Stafford | LAR | 225 | +0.15 | +0.3 |
| C.Stroud | HOU | 202 | +0.13 | +2.5 |
| J.Love | GB | 197 | +0.11 | −3.1 |
| D.Watson | CLE | 184 | +0.08 | −2.4 |
| G.Smith | NYJ | 173 | +0.05 | +4.4 |
| J.Brissett | ARI | 214 | 0.00 | +2.0 |
| K.Murray | MIN | 122 | 0.00 | +5.7 |
| J.Winston | NYG | 149 | −0.02 | −5.9 |
| T.Shough | NO | 224 | −0.02 | +1.9 |
| J.Hurts | PHI | 179 | −0.03 | −2.2 |
| A.Rodgers | PIT | 201 | −0.07 | −2.5 |
| B.Nix | DEN | 174 | −0.08 | −2.6 |
| M.Willis | MIA | 161 | −0.10 | −7.3 |
| S.Darnold | SEA | 110 | −0.10 | +2.1 |
| D.Jones | IND | 189 | −0.13 | −2.4 |
| C.Ward | TEN | 177 | −0.16 | +1.6 |
| J.Herbert | LAC | 175 | −0.18 | −4.5 |
| B.Mayfield | TB | 118 | −0.23 | +0.3 |
Pass rate over expected
Teams & QBs · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
Pass rate over expected through Week 5: how much more or less often each offense drops back to pass than an average team would in the same down, distance, score and time, in percentage points.
Most pass-heavy: CIN (+5.6), PIT (+4.4), CAR (+4.2).
Most run-heavy: MIA (−11.5), LAC (−10.8), ATL (−8.5).
It measures the play-caller's lean, not how well the passes work.
| Team | Pass rate over expected | Pass rate | Expected | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | +5.6 | 66.9% | 61.3% | 317 |
| PIT | +4.4 | 68.8% | 64.5% | 321 |
| CAR | +4.2 | 66.2% | 62.0% | 281 |
| DAL | +3.8 | 68.7% | 64.9% | 323 |
| SF | +2.9 | 56.8% | 53.8% | 287 |
| GB | +2.9 | 68.0% | 65.0% | 309 |
| KC | +2.8 | 58.0% | 55.2% | 257 |
| LAR | +2.3 | 66.4% | 64.1% | 366 |
| ARI | +1.4 | 65.8% | 64.4% | 345 |
| NE | +1.3 | 60.8% | 59.5% | 332 |
| CLE | +1.1 | 64.9% | 63.8% | 305 |
| DET | +0.4 | 62.0% | 61.6% | 342 |
| NO | +0.3 | 68.2% | 67.9% | 346 |
| HOU | +0.2 | 66.6% | 66.4% | 329 |
| BUF | −1.4 | 58.2% | 59.6% | 311 |
| IND | −2.1 | 59.7% | 61.8% | 325 |
| TB | −2.1 | 63.7% | 65.8% | 322 |
| WAS | −2.1 | 62.2% | 64.4% | 331 |
| CHI | −2.2 | 55.7% | 58.0% | 377 |
| LV | −2.5 | 60.7% | 63.2% | 331 |
| MIN | −2.6 | 58.3% | 60.9% | 314 |
| NYJ | −2.9 | 59.5% | 62.3% | 301 |
| DEN | −2.9 | 61.3% | 64.2% | 302 |
| JAX | −3.2 | 56.1% | 59.3% | 305 |
| PHI | −4.3 | 62.6% | 66.8% | 302 |
| SEA | −4.3 | 55.0% | 59.4% | 307 |
| BAL | −4.4 | 54.1% | 58.5% | 320 |
| TEN | −5.3 | 66.0% | 71.3% | 288 |
| NYG | −6.1 | 57.6% | 63.7% | 340 |
| ATL | −8.5 | 50.3% | 58.8% | 316 |
| LAC | −10.8 | 58.2% | 69.1% | 328 |
| MIA | −11.5 | 58.8% | 70.2% | 291 |
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Week 5 · Thu, Oct 8
Model vs. Vegas, Week 5: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: HOU @ TEN. Market HOU -7.5, our numbers HOU -4.5.
Starting QB in doubt, per ESPN: BAL @ ATL, Lamar Jackson (BAL, questionable); MIN @ NO, Tyler Shough (NO, questionable). Our number has the listed starter playing and changes if he sits, so those games are left out of the biggest gap above.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap | Starting QB in doubt (ESPN status) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ ATL | SUN 20:20 | -3.5 | +0.7 | 4.2 | Lamar Jackson (BAL, questionable) |
| HOU @ TEN | SUN 13:00 | +7.5 | +4.5 | 3.0 | |
| LV @ NE | SUN 13:00 | -3.5 | -6.2 | 2.8 | |
| IND @ PIT | SUN 13:00 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 2.4 | |
| MIN @ NO | SUN 13:00 | +1.5 | +3.6 | 2.1 | Tyler Shough (NO, questionable) |
| CIN @ MIA | SUN 13:00 | +6.5 | +4.4 | 2.1 | |
| DEN @ LAC | SUN 16:05 | +3.5 | +1.5 | 2.0 | |
| NYG @ WAS | SUN 13:00 | -3.5 | -1.5 | 2.0 | |
| BUF @ LAR | MON 20:15 | -3 | -1.4 | 1.6 | |
| TB @ DAL | THU 20:15 | -8.5 | -7.1 | 1.4 | |
| CLE @ NYJ | SUN 13:00 | -1.5 | -0.2 | 1.2 | |
| CHI @ GB | SUN 13:00 | +1.5 | +2.7 | 1.2 | |
| DET @ ARI | SUN 16:25 | +5.5 | +4.6 | 0.9 | |
| PHI @ JAX | SUN 09:30 | -7 | -7.4 | 0.4 | |
| SF @ SEA | SUN 16:25 | -3 | -3.1 | 0.1 |
Implied team totals
Betting · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 6
Implied team totals for Week 5: the points the betting market expects from each team, from the game total and the spread (half the total, plus or minus half the spread).
Highest: DET 29.5 (at ARI), LAR 28.5 (vs BUF), DAL 28.0 (vs TB).
Lowest: TEN 16.0 (vs HOU), MIA 17.75 (vs CIN), PHI 18.0 (at JAX).
On bye: CAR, KC.
The market's numbers, not ours, and not picks.
| Team | Opponent | Implied points | Spread | Game total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | at ARI | 29.5 | -4.5 | 54.5 |
| LAR | vs BUF | 28.5 | -2.5 | 54.5 |
| DAL | vs TB | 28.0 | -8.5 | 47.5 |
| BUF | at LAR | 26.0 | +2.5 | 54.5 |
| SEA | vs SF | 25.25 | -3 | 47.5 |
| ARI | vs DET | 25.0 | +4.5 | 54.5 |
| CIN | at MIA | 24.75 | -7 | 42.5 |
| JAX | vs PHI | 24.5 | -6.5 | 42.5 |
| NE | vs LV | 24.5 | -3.5 | 45.5 |
| CHI | at GB | 24.25 | -3 | 45.5 |
| PIT | vs IND | 23.5 | -2.5 | 44.5 |
| ATL | vs BAL | 23.25 | -3 | 43.5 |
| WAS | vs NYG | 23.25 | -3 | 43.5 |
| DEN | at LAC | 23.0 | -3.5 | 42.5 |
| HOU | at TEN | 22.5 | -6.5 | 38.5 |
| SF | at SEA | 22.25 | +3 | 47.5 |
| MIN | at NO | 22.0 | -1.5 | 42.5 |
| GB | vs CHI | 21.25 | +3 | 45.5 |
| IND | at PIT | 21.0 | +2.5 | 44.5 |
| LV | at NE | 21.0 | +3.5 | 45.5 |
| NYJ | vs CLE | 21.0 | -2.5 | 39.5 |
| NO | vs MIN | 20.5 | +1.5 | 42.5 |
| BAL | at ATL | 20.25 | +3 | 43.5 |
| NYG | at WAS | 20.25 | +3 | 43.5 |
| LAC | vs DEN | 19.5 | +3.5 | 42.5 |
| TB | at DAL | 19.5 | +8.5 | 47.5 |
| CLE | at NYJ | 18.5 | +2.5 | 39.5 |
| PHI | at JAX | 18.0 | +6.5 | 42.5 |
| MIA | vs CIN | 17.75 | +7 | 42.5 |
| TEN | vs HOU | 16.0 | +6.5 | 38.5 |
Where the money went
Betting · Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11
Where the money went, Week 5: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
Biggest move: BAL @ ATL, 7 pts toward ATL (ATL +3.5 to -3.5).
Moved against most bettors: BAL @ ATL (55% on BAL, line to ATL); CHI @ GB (57% on CHI, line to GB).
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ ATL | +3.5 | -3.5 | 45% | 46% | Reverse |
| CHI @ GB | +2.5 | +1.5 | 43% | 50% | Reverse |
| CLE @ NYJ | -1.5 | -2.5 | 18% | 26% | Reverse |
| BUF @ LAR | -2.5 | -3.5 | 22% | 28% | Reverse |
| IND @ PIT | -2.5 | -3 | 35% | 37% | Reverse |
| PHI @ JAX | -4.5 | -8 | 53% | 49% | |
| DET @ ARI | +4.5 | +5.5 | 48% | 37% | |
| MIN @ NO | +1.5 | +2 | 48% | 48% | |
| HOU @ TEN | +6.5 | +7 | 33% | 37% | |
| CIN @ MIA | +7 | +7 | 28% | 19% | |
| LV @ NE | -3.5 | -3.5 | 27% | 22% | |
| NYG @ WAS | -3.5 | -3.5 | 31% | 37% | |
| DEN @ LAC | +3.5 | +3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| SF @ SEA | -3 | -3 | 19% | 17% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Week 5 · Sat, Oct 10
Trench watch, Week 5: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
DEN rush (97) vs LAC protection (0)
CHI rush (61) vs GB protection (6)
CLE rush (74) vs NYJ protection (23)
MIN rush (100) vs NO protection (61)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 97 | LAC | 0 | +97 | Rush wins |
| CHI | 61 | GB | 6 | +55 | Rush wins |
| CLE | 74 | NYJ | 23 | +52 | Rush wins |
| MIN | 100 | NO | 61 | +39 | Rush wins |
| NE | 48 | LV | 13 | +35 | Rush wins |
| PIT | 68 | IND | 32 | +35 | Rush wins |
| LV | 90 | NE | 58 | +32 | |
| BUF | 84 | LA | 55 | +29 | |
| DET | 81 | ARI | 52 | +29 | |
| WAS | 29 | NYG | 3 | +26 | |
| NO | 26 | MIN | 16 | +10 | |
| MIA | 23 | CIN | 19 | +3 | |
| SEA | 94 | SF | 97 | −3 | |
| NYJ | 3 | CLE | 10 | −6 | |
| HOU | 71 | TEN | 77 | −6 | |
| JAX | 65 | PHI | 74 | −10 | |
| ATL | 77 | BAL | 87 | −10 | |
| IND | 32 | PIT | 42 | −10 | |
| LAC | 87 | DEN | 100 | −13 | |
| ARI | 19 | DET | 39 | −19 | |
| PHI | 10 | JAX | 29 | −19 | |
| CIN | 58 | MIA | 81 | −23 | |
| NYG | 13 | WAS | 35 | −23 | |
| TEN | 39 | HOU | 71 | −32 | Line wins |
| BAL | 55 | ATL | 90 | −35 | Line wins |
| SF | 6 | SEA | 45 | −39 | Line wins |
| LA | 45 | BUF | 84 | −39 | Line wins |
| GB | 52 | CHI | 94 | −42 | Line wins |
Run blocking: yards before contact per carry, offense vs. defense
Trenches · Week 5 · Thu, Oct 15
The run game at the line through Week 5: the yards each team's running backs gain per carry before a defender touches them, against what its defense allows opposing backs before contact.
Most room for their own backs: BUF (3.7), DET (3.2), LAR (2.9) yards before contact per carry. Least: NYG (1.6), LV (1.7), CLE (1.7).
Defenses that get to the runner soonest: JAX (1.4), KC (1.5), PIT (1.7) allowed. Latest: LV (3.7), NO (3.0), CHI (2.9).
The league average is 2.3. Running back carries only. Yards before contact are mostly blocking and scheme, but the back's speed and the number of defenders in the box count too; charted by Pro Football Reference, not adjusted for opponent.
5 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Team | Before contact/carry | Before contact/carry allowed | Net | After contact/carry | After contact/carry allowed | RB carries | RB carries faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3.7 | 2.0 | +1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 101 | 118 |
| KC | 2.9 | 1.5 | +1.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 103 | 83 |
| PIT | 2.4 | 1.7 | +0.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 92 | 110 |
| MIN | 2.4 | 1.9 | +0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 121 | 95 |
| LAR | 2.9 | 2.3 | +0.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 113 | 112 |
| ATL | 2.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 153 | 90 |
| DET | 3.2 | 2.7 | +0.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 120 | 99 |
| JAX | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 120 | 83 |
| TEN | 2.3 | 2.0 | +0.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 93 | 130 |
| WAS | 2.3 | 2.0 | +0.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 117 | 98 |
| SF | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 102 | 118 |
| DAL | 2.3 | 2.1 | +0.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 91 | 127 |
| MIA | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 95 | 126 |
| TB | 2.1 | 1.9 | +0.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 102 | 89 |
| DEN | 2.1 | 1.9 | +0.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 95 | 123 |
| BAL | 2.1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 131 | 107 |
| SEA | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 127 | 108 |
| CAR | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 87 | 89 |
| IND | 2.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 118 | 106 |
| GB | 2.0 | 2.1 | −0.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 87 | 123 |
| NE | 2.4 | 2.5 | −0.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 119 | 95 |
| HOU | 1.8 | 2.0 | −0.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 95 | 103 |
| PHI | 1.7 | 2.0 | −0.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 95 | 127 |
| LAC | 2.1 | 2.4 | −0.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 120 | 128 |
| CHI | 2.6 | 2.9 | −0.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 147 | 95 |
| ARI | 2.0 | 2.4 | −0.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 105 | 132 |
| CIN | 2.3 | 2.7 | −0.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 98 | 93 |
| CLE | 1.7 | 2.3 | −0.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 84 | 112 |
| NYJ | 2.1 | 2.9 | −0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 110 | 120 |
| NO | 1.9 | 3.0 | −1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 98 | 131 |
| NYG | 1.6 | 2.8 | −1.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 124 | 102 |
| LV | 1.7 | 3.7 | −1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 121 | 112 |
The receipts
Fantasy · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
The receipts, Week 5: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.
Average miss: 7.3 pts, 38% within 5.
Biggest boom: Jaylen Warren, 14.1 projected, 36.8 scored.
Biggest miss: Tyler Shough, 15.7 projected, -0.2 scored.
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Scored | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 14.1 | 36.8 | +22.7 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 10.0 | 32.4 | +22.4 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 10.6 | 31.5 | +20.9 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 19.2 | 37.7 | +18.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 13.8 | 32.3 | +18.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 20.7 | 37.7 | +17.0 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 13.4 | 30.4 | +17.0 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 11.1 | 28.0 | +16.9 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 12.3 | 29.1 | +16.8 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 10.7 | 26.3 | +15.6 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 4.4 | 18.6 | +14.2 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 18.6 | 30.5 | +11.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 12.3 | 23.4 | +11.1 |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 17.9 | 28.9 | +11.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 16.6 | 27.3 | +10.7 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 10.8 | 21.4 | +10.6 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 13.4 | 22.8 | +9.4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 9.6 | 18.8 | +9.2 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 14.2 | 23.0 | +8.8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 6.8 | 15.4 | +8.6 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 11.7 | 20.3 | +8.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 16.8 | 25.3 | +8.5 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 8.5 | 16.7 | +8.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 10.6 | 18.7 | +8.1 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LA | 14.2 | 22.1 | +7.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 12.4 | 19.8 | +7.4 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 11.5 | 18.8 | +7.3 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 17.4 | 24.6 | +7.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| Ollie Gordon | RB | MIA | 8.1 | 14.8 | +6.7 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 15.1 | 21.6 | +6.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 11.9 | 17.3 | +5.4 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 8.8 | 14.2 | +5.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 16.4 | 21.7 | +5.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 12.4 | 17.5 | +5.1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 14.1 | 18.7 | +4.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 18.6 | 22.8 | +4.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 10.1 | 13.2 | +3.1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 18.1 | 21.0 | +2.9 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 10.3 | 12.1 | +1.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 15.7 | 17.3 | +1.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 10.7 | 12.2 | +1.5 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 18.3 | 19.6 | +1.3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 10.5 | 11.3 | +0.8 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 10.2 | 11.0 | +0.8 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 8.9 | 9.5 | +0.6 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 15.7 | 16.2 | +0.4 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 11.4 | 11.6 | +0.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 11.5 | 11.6 | +0.1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 14.8 | 14.2 | −0.6 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 8.9 | 7.7 | −1.2 |
| Luther Burden | WR | CHI | 10.6 | 8.9 | −1.7 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 9.6 | 7.5 | −2.1 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 9.9 | 7.7 | −2.2 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 17.2 | 14.6 | −2.7 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 9.7 | 7.0 | −2.7 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 13.7 | 10.6 | −3.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | 8.9 | 5.7 | −3.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 19.3 | 15.8 | −3.5 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 10.1 | 6.6 | −3.5 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 9.3 | 5.0 | −4.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 7.1 | 2.6 | −4.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 10.2 | 5.6 | −4.6 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 15.8 | 11.2 | −4.6 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 17.4 | 12.6 | −4.7 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 9.6 | 4.9 | −4.7 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 5.5 | 0.7 | −4.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 9.7 | 4.8 | −4.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 17.8 | 12.9 | −4.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 15.6 | 10.7 | −4.9 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 13.0 | 8.0 | −5.0 |
| Tre Harris | WR | LAC | 8.6 | 3.6 | −5.0 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 12.6 | 7.4 | −5.2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 10.5 | 5.2 | −5.3 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 13.1 | 7.1 | −6.0 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | PIT | 11.5 | 5.3 | −6.2 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 10.5 | 3.9 | −6.6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 10.3 | 3.7 | −6.6 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 15.5 | 8.3 | −7.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 8.7 | 1.1 | −7.6 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 15.8 | 7.9 | −7.9 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 16.7 | 8.6 | −8.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 10.7 | 2.5 | −8.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 15.7 | 7.3 | −8.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 10.2 | 1.7 | −8.5 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 10.3 | 1.6 | −8.7 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 11.9 | 2.6 | −9.3 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 16.4 | 7.0 | −9.4 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 11.8 | 2.2 | −9.6 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 14.0 | 4.2 | −9.8 |
| Harold Fannin | TE | CLE | 11.2 | 1.4 | −9.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 16.2 | 2.9 | −13.3 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 15.7 | -0.2 | −15.8 |
Receiver usage: target share vs. air-yards share
Fantasy · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
Receiver usage through Week 5: each wide receiver and tight end's share of his team's targets against his share of its air yards (how far downfield the throws to him travel).
Biggest target shares: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 35%), P.Nacua (LAR, 34%), D.Smith (PHI, 33%).
Biggest air-yards shares: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 50%), C.Tate (TEN, 49%), D.Smith (PHI, 48%).
Shares are of the team's totals in the games each player played. 93 receivers with at least 4 targets a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Targets | Target share | Air yards | Air-yards share | Avg depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 50 | 35% | 513 | 50% | 10.3 |
| D.Smith | WR | PHI | 27 | 33% | 323 | 48% | 12.0 |
| P.Nacua | WR | LAR | 45 | 34% | 435 | 41% | 9.7 |
| G.Wilson | WR | NYJ | 42 | 30% | 407 | 43% | 9.7 |
| C.Olave | WR | NO | 54 | 28% | 729 | 46% | 13.5 |
| D.London | WR | ATL | 36 | 28% | 327 | 44% | 9.1 |
| C.Tate | WR | TEN | 37 | 26% | 492 | 49% | 13.3 |
| B.Bowers | TE | LV | 34 | 30% | 323 | 35% | 9.5 |
| Z.Flowers | WR | BAL | 31 | 30% | 267 | 33% | 8.6 |
| C.Lamb | WR | DAL | 51 | 27% | 526 | 38% | 10.3 |
| M.Evans | WR | SF | 34 | 25% | 472 | 43% | 13.9 |
| P.Washington | WR | JAX | 35 | 26% | 446 | 41% | 12.7 |
| A.St. Brown | WR | DET | 57 | 30% | 465 | 31% | 8.2 |
| M.Nabers | WR | NYG | 46 | 28% | 543 | 35% | 11.8 |
| Mi.Wilson | WR | ARI | 51 | 26% | 519 | 37% | 10.2 |
| M.Washington | WR | MIA | 36 | 28% | 424 | 32% | 11.8 |
| T.Higgins | WR | CIN | 43 | 23% | 573 | 42% | 13.3 |
| N.Collins | WR | HOU | 25 | 26% | 314 | 36% | 12.6 |
| M.Golden | WR | GB | 44 | 24% | 614 | 38% | 14.0 |
| T.McMillan | WR | CAR | 39 | 27% | 447 | 33% | 11.5 |
| J.Jefferson | WR | MIN | 24 | 25% | 263 | 36% | 11.0 |
| D.Boston | WR | CLE | 29 | 20% | 477 | 45% | 16.4 |
| I.Likely | TE | NYG | 48 | 29% | 350 | 23% | 7.3 |
| T.McBride | TE | ARI | 56 | 29% | 327 | 23% | 5.8 |
| J.Addison | WR | MIN | 22 | 22% | 272 | 37% | 12.4 |
| D.Adams | WR | LAR | 45 | 21% | 705 | 37% | 15.7 |
| G.Pickens | WR | DAL | 41 | 22% | 467 | 34% | 11.4 |
| D.Metcalf | WR | PIT | 37 | 21% | 509 | 35% | 13.8 |
| J.Waddle | WR | DEN | 31 | 21% | 300 | 35% | 9.7 |
| E.Egbuka | WR | TB | 33 | 23% | 339 | 31% | 10.3 |
| T.McLaurin | WR | WAS | 26 | 22% | 324 | 31% | 12.5 |
| C.Watson | WR | GB | 40 | 22% | 506 | 31% | 12.7 |
| D.Wicks | WR | PHI | 28 | 20% | 359 | 32% | 12.8 |
| J.Downs | WR | IND | 34 | 20% | 376 | 30% | 11.1 |
| L.Burden | WR | CHI | 35 | 22% | 316 | 27% | 9.0 |
| S.Diggs | WR | WAS | 31 | 24% | 280 | 22% | 9.0 |
| R.Odunze | WR | CHI | 29 | 18% | 406 | 35% | 14.0 |
| J.Chase | WR | CIN | 38 | 20% | 350 | 26% | 9.2 |
| C.Sutton | WR | DEN | 25 | 17% | 276 | 32% | 11.0 |
| J.Coker | WR | CAR | 22 | 20% | 252 | 24% | 11.5 |
| M.Andrews | TE | BAL | 30 | 23% | 200 | 18% | 6.7 |
| D.Moore | WR | BUF | 20 | 18% | 303 | 27% | 15.2 |
| J.Williams | WR | DET | 29 | 15% | 479 | 32% | 16.5 |
| X.Worthy | WR | KC | 22 | 19% | 210 | 25% | 9.5 |
| T.Hockenson | TE | MIN | 27 | 21% | 178 | 20% | 6.6 |
| R.Rice | WR | KC | 17 | 19% | 126 | 24% | 7.4 |
| T.Tucker | WR | LV | 28 | 16% | 412 | 29% | 14.7 |
| G.Kittle | TE | SF | 28 | 20% | 213 | 20% | 7.6 |
| M.Hollins | WR | NE | 20 | 17% | 297 | 27% | 14.8 |
| X.Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 31 | 18% | 392 | 24% | 12.6 |
| D.Vele | WR | NO | 37 | 19% | 355 | 22% | 9.6 |
| W.Robinson | WR | TEN | 30 | 21% | 180 | 18% | 6.0 |
| T.Harris | WR | LAC | 25 | 18% | 285 | 24% | 11.4 |
| K.Allen | WR | IND | 29 | 21% | 188 | 17% | 6.5 |
| R.Doubs | WR | NE | 23 | 15% | 381 | 27% | 16.6 |
| K.Concepcion | WR | CLE | 29 | 20% | 176 | 17% | 6.1 |
| B.Strange | TE | JAX | 26 | 19% | 198 | 18% | 7.6 |
| T.Warren | TE | IND | 36 | 22% | 145 | 12% | 4.0 |
| S.LaPorta | TE | DET | 37 | 20% | 232 | 15% | 6.3 |
| R.Bateman | WR | BAL | 21 | 16% | 263 | 23% | 12.5 |
| Q.Johnston | WR | LAC | 19 | 16% | 237 | 22% | 12.5 |
| R.Wilson | WR | PIT | 25 | 14% | 381 | 26% | 15.2 |
| C.Otton | TE | TB | 27 | 18% | 185 | 17% | 6.9 |
| K.Shakir | WR | BUF | 26 | 20% | 169 | 13% | 6.5 |
| H.Fannin | TE | CLE | 27 | 18% | 174 | 17% | 6.4 |
| T.Kelce | TE | KC | 22 | 19% | 132 | 16% | 6.0 |
| D.Kincaid | TE | BUF | 21 | 16% | 256 | 20% | 12.2 |
| L.McConkey | WR | LAC | 17 | 15% | 228 | 22% | 13.4 |
| D.Schultz | TE | HOU | 31 | 18% | 203 | 13% | 6.5 |
| D.Cooper | WR | PHI | 13 | 14% | 163 | 22% | 12.5 |
| K.Raymond | WR | CHI | 27 | 17% | 177 | 15% | 6.6 |
| D.Douglas | WR | NE | 22 | 15% | 257 | 18% | 11.7 |
| D.Goedert | TE | PHI | 16 | 17% | 92 | 12% | 5.8 |
| P.Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 26 | 15% | 228 | 16% | 8.8 |
| A.Williams | WR | WAS | 22 | 14% | 239 | 16% | 10.9 |
| J.Johnson | TE | NO | 32 | 16% | 165 | 10% | 5.2 |
| G.Bernard | WR | PIT | 20 | 15% | 147 | 14% | 7.3 |
| T.Kraft | TE | GB | 29 | 16% | 157 | 10% | 5.4 |
| R.Flournoy | WR | DAL | 27 | 15% | 173 | 12% | 6.4 |
| K.Sadiq | TE | NYJ | 21 | 15% | 105 | 11% | 5.0 |
| C.Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 13 | 15% | 100 | 11% | 7.7 |
| M.Lemon | WR | PHI | 22 | 15% | 113 | 10% | 5.1 |
| C.Loveland | TE | CHI | 23 | 14% | 145 | 12% | 6.3 |
| M.Mayer | TE | LV | 25 | 15% | 118 | 8% | 4.7 |
| D.Waller | TE | CAR | 19 | 13% | 141 | 10% | 7.4 |
| C.Godwin | WR | TB | 21 | 14% | 73 | 7% | 3.5 |
| T.Higbee | TE | LAR | 25 | 12% | 204 | 11% | 8.2 |
| D.Samuel | WR | SF | 20 | 15% | 51 | 5% | 2.5 |
| A.Barner | TE | SEA | 20 | 14% | 42 | 4% | 2.1 |
| M.Pittman | WR | PIT | 12 | 11% | 113 | 10% | 9.4 |
| K.Bourne | WR | ARI | 22 | 11% | 128 | 9% | 5.8 |
| T.Ferguson | TE | LAR | 12 | 11% | 79 | 7% | 6.6 |
| J.Ferguson | TE | DAL | 21 | 11% | 94 | 7% | 4.5 |
Workload vs. points: expected fantasy points vs. actual
Fantasy · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
Workload vs. points through Week 5: expected PPR points per game (what an average player scores on the same carries and targets) against what each player has actually scored.
Furthest above their workload: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+10.0), Zay Flowers (+7.1), Christian Watson (+6.5) points a game.
Furthest below: Michael Wilson (−5.0), Colston Loveland (−4.7), Jadarian Price (−4.3).
Workload is the steadier half, so big gaps tend to close: in 2024 and 2025 the players furthest above theirs after four weeks kept under a third of the gap the rest of the way, and the ones furthest below got back to even. A tendency across players, not a forecast for any one of them.
120 running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with at least 8 expected points a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Games | Expected pts/game | Actual pts/game | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 5 | 17.9 | 27.9 | +10.0 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 4 | 13.4 | 20.5 | +7.1 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 5 | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 |
| Darius Cooper | WR | PHI | 3 | 9.2 | 14.7 | +5.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 4 | 14.4 | 19.8 | +5.4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 4 | 11.4 | 15.9 | +4.5 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 3 | 16.5 | 20.9 | +4.4 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 4 | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 5 | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 |
| Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | 5 | 9.9 | 13.8 | +3.9 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 3 | 19.8 | 23.7 | +3.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 5 | 20.5 | 24.2 | +3.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 5 | 19.4 | 23.0 | +3.6 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 3 | 14.0 | 17.4 | +3.4 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 5 | 12.9 | 16.3 | +3.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 3 | 9.4 | 12.7 | +3.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 3 | 8.4 | 11.6 | +3.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 5 | 14.2 | 17.3 | +3.1 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 5 | 11.5 | 14.4 | +2.9 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 5 | 12.4 | 15.2 | +2.8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 4 | 24.8 | 27.5 | +2.8 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 5 | 15.1 | 17.9 | +2.7 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 5 | 13.8 | 16.5 | +2.7 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 5 | 20.2 | 22.4 | +2.2 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LAR | 5 | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 5 | 11.1 | 13.2 | +2.0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 5 | 10.0 | 12.1 | +2.0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 5 | 8.5 | 10.3 | +1.9 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 5 | 14.1 | 16.0 | +1.9 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 5 | 8.5 | 10.3 | +1.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | CHI | 5 | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 5 | 20.2 | 21.9 | +1.7 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 5 | 8.3 | 9.9 | +1.7 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 5 | 14.1 | 15.7 | +1.6 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 4 | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 5 | 29.2 | 30.6 | +1.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 5 | 15.8 | 17.1 | +1.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 5 | 8.7 | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| Darren Waller | TE | CAR | 4 | 8.8 | 9.9 | +1.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 3 | 15.0 | 16.2 | +1.2 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 5 | 12.8 | 14.0 | +1.2 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 4 | 10.8 | 12.0 | +1.2 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 5 | 18.6 | 19.7 | +1.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 4 | 12.2 | 13.2 | +1.0 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | 5 | 8.3 | 9.3 | +1.0 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 5 | 9.3 | 10.1 | +0.8 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | +0.7 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 5 | 18.5 | 19.2 | +0.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 5 | 14.7 | 15.3 | +0.6 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 5 | 14.5 | 15.1 | +0.6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 4 | 18.3 | 18.6 | +0.4 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 5 | 9.0 | 9.4 | +0.3 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | 5 | 8.5 | 8.8 | +0.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | +0.3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | SF | 5 | 9.0 | 9.3 | +0.3 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 4 | 8.1 | 8.3 | +0.2 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | NE | 4 | 8.8 | 9.0 | +0.2 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 5 | 10.2 | 10.4 | +0.2 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 5 | 8.8 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 5 | 8.9 | 9.0 | +0.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 5 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 0.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | PHI | 5 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 4 | 9.5 | 9.4 | −0.1 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 5 | 9.0 | 8.7 | −0.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 5 | 18.5 | 18.3 | −0.3 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 4 | 9.4 | 9.1 | −0.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 5 | 19.8 | 19.5 | −0.3 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 5 | 16.1 | 15.7 | −0.4 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 5 | 10.0 | 9.5 | −0.5 |
| Tre Harris | WR | LAC | 5 | 8.1 | 7.5 | −0.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | −0.6 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 5 | 13.1 | 12.4 | −0.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 5 | 12.3 | 11.5 | −0.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 4 | 10.5 | 9.7 | −0.8 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 5 | 18.9 | 18.2 | −0.8 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 5 | 15.6 | 14.8 | −0.8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 5 | 13.6 | 12.7 | −0.9 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 4 | 9.2 | 8.3 | −0.9 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 5 | 15.0 | 14.0 | −1.0 |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 5 | 9.6 | 8.7 | −1.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | 5 | 8.4 | 7.3 | −1.0 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 3 | 15.3 | 14.2 | −1.1 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | 5 | 8.4 | 7.2 | −1.2 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 5 | 10.9 | 9.7 | −1.2 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 5 | 9.8 | 8.5 | −1.3 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 4 | 12.0 | 10.6 | −1.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 5 | 11.4 | 9.9 | −1.5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 5 | 11.7 | 10.2 | −1.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 5 | 9.7 | 8.1 | −1.6 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 5 | 15.5 | 13.7 | −1.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 5 | 18.0 | 16.2 | −1.8 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 5 | 12.1 | 10.3 | −1.9 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 5 | 12.7 | 10.7 | −2.0 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 5 | 12.1 | 10.0 | −2.0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 5 | 10.0 | 7.9 | −2.1 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 5 | 11.1 | 9.0 | −2.1 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 4 | 11.8 | 9.6 | −2.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 4 | 10.6 | 8.3 | −2.2 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 5 | 9.3 | 7.1 | −2.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 5 | 23.1 | 20.8 | −2.3 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 3 | 28.2 | 25.9 | −2.3 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 5 | 12.0 | 9.7 | −2.3 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 5 | 11.2 | 8.7 | −2.5 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | 5 | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | −2.6 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 5 | 11.1 | 8.5 | −2.7 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | NO | 3 | 13.0 | 10.3 | −2.7 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 5 | 14.0 | 11.3 | −2.7 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 5 | 14.1 | 11.2 | −2.9 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 5 | 13.2 | 10.2 | −3.0 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 5 | 16.1 | 13.0 | −3.1 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 5 | 12.0 | 8.7 | −3.3 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 3 | 11.5 | 8.2 | −3.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 5 | 9.2 | 5.5 | −3.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 5 | 11.0 | 7.2 | −3.7 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 5 | 21.0 | 16.9 | −4.1 |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | 3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | −4.3 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | −4.7 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 5 | 17.8 | 12.8 | −5.0 |
Running back yards before and after contact
Fantasy · Week 5 · Thu, Oct 15
Running back yards before and after contact through Week 5: each back's yards per carry before the first defender touches him (mostly the room he is given by his blockers and the scheme) against his yards per carry after it (mostly his own work).
Most yards after contact per carry: Jaylen Warren (PIT, 3.2), Kenneth Walker III (KC, 3.1), Bucky Irving (TB, 2.8).
Most room before contact: James Cook (BUF, 3.8), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 3.4), Chuba Hubbard (CAR, 3.2).
Least room: Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 1.5), David Montgomery (HOU, 1.6), Cam Skattebo (NYG, 1.6).
The average running back carry has gained 2.3 yards before contact and 1.9 after. 35 backs with at least 40 carries; charted by Pro Football Reference.
5 weeks is a small sample: in 2024 and 2025, where a back stood after four weeks said little about the rest of his season, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Running back | Team | Carries | Yards/carry | Before contact/carry | After contact/carry | Share after contact | Broken tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 70 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 55% | 7 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 87 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 50% | 12 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 77 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 52% | 10 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 102 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 47% | 7 |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 60 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 47% | 2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 82 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 60% | 8 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL | 51 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 60% | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 113 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 55% | 4 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 70 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 45% | 5 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 81 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 55% | 3 |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | 47 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 39% | 5 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 78 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 43% | 5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 101 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 48% | 5 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 57 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 45% | 6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 61 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 40% | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 61 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 36% | 5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 67 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 49% | 2 |
| James Cook | BUF | 95 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 32% | 8 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 73 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 47% | 9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 57 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 43% | 2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 64 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 47% | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 88 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 50% | 6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 42 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 41% | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 97 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 38% | 4 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 68 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 39% | 3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 73 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 49% | 6 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 74 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 39% | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 105 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 30% | 7 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 67 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 39% | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 73 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 40% | 3 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 51 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 42% | 5 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 43 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 38% | 4 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 71 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 38% | 6 |
| David Montgomery | HOU | 52 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 41% | 3 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 40 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 35% | 2 |
Rush yards over expected vs. stacked boxes
Fantasy · Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13
Rush yards over expected through Week 5: how many more yards per carry each running back has gained than an average back would on the same carries (the NFL's Next Gen Stats model, built on where every blocker and defender was at the handoff), against how often he runs into a box of eight or more defenders.
Most yards over expected per carry: Kenneth Walker III (KC, +2.52), Jaylen Warren (PIT, +1.87), Bijan Robinson (ATL, +1.68).
Fewest: MarShawn Lloyd (GB, −1.36), J.K. Dobbins (DEN, −0.76), Chase Brown (CIN, −0.70).
Most loaded boxes: Derrick Henry (BAL, 33%), Ashton Jeanty (LV, 32%), David Montgomery (HOU, 31%) of carries. Fewest: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS, 6%), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 15%), TreVeyon Henderson (NE, 17%).
35 running backs with at least 40 carries.
5 weeks is a small sample, and a long run or two moves this number a lot, so it describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Running back | Team | Carries | Yards/carry | Yards over expected/carry | Yards over expected | Carries over expected | 8+ in the box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 87 | 6.2 | +2.52 | +212 | 40% | 26% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 70 | 5.9 | +1.87 | +127 | 57% | 23% |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 102 | 5.7 | +1.68 | +161 | 47% | 20% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 61 | 5.0 | +1.28 | +78 | 48% | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 60 | 5.4 | +1.17 | +66 | 46% | 22% |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 77 | 5.3 | +1.14 | +85 | 47% | 18% |
| James Cook | BUF | 95 | 5.6 | +0.96 | +88 | 46% | 26% |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | 47 | 5.0 | +0.71 | +33 | 34% | 17% |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 57 | 4.1 | +0.66 | +37 | 48% | 26% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 70 | 4.9 | +0.60 | +41 | 41% | 27% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 57 | 4.0 | +0.54 | +30 | 46% | 23% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 105 | 4.8 | +0.52 | +53 | 44% | 19% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 61 | 4.7 | +0.35 | +21 | 43% | 25% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 82 | 4.3 | +0.29 | +23 | 42% | 15% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 113 | 4.2 | +0.22 | +23 | 35% | 33% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 68 | 4.0 | +0.19 | +13 | 48% | 18% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 42 | 3.9 | +0.07 | +3 | 33% | 17% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 43 | 3.5 | −0.02 | −1 | 40% | 28% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 78 | 4.5 | −0.06 | −4 | 33% | 18% |
| Brian Robinson | ATL | 51 | 4.1 | −0.07 | −4 | 43% | 18% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 74 | 3.7 | −0.14 | −10 | 42% | 20% |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 51 | 3.2 | −0.15 | −8 | 33% | 29% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 88 | 3.3 | −0.17 | −15 | 36% | 32% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 101 | 3.9 | −0.25 | −25 | 31% | 21% |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 67 | 3.7 | −0.39 | −26 | 42% | 24% |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 97 | 4.2 | −0.40 | −38 | 40% | 22% |
| David Montgomery | HOU | 52 | 2.7 | −0.43 | −22 | 35% | 31% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 67 | 3.6 | −0.45 | −30 | 24% | 6% |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 73 | 3.0 | −0.48 | −35 | 35% | 23% |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 73 | 3.7 | −0.49 | −36 | 37% | 25% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 81 | 3.6 | −0.54 | −44 | 33% | 22% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 73 | 3.4 | −0.66 | −48 | 32% | 23% |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 71 | 3.5 | −0.70 | −49 | 34% | 25% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 64 | 3.6 | −0.76 | −48 | 30% | 19% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 40 | 2.8 | −1.36 | −54 | 32% | 18% |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Week 5 · Wed, Oct 7
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 5.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB7 now.
Biggest fall: Jayden Daniels, QB5 on draft day, QB41 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 15.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB9 | −7 | 11.8 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB6 | −3 | 12.4 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB11 | −7 | 11.6 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB41 | −36 | 4.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB8 | −2 | 12.2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB23 | −16 | 8.8 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB3 | +5 | 13.4 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB12 | −3 | 11.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB10 | +0 | 11.8 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB27 | −16 | 7.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB15 | −3 | 11.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB4 | +9 | 13.2 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 13.5 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB5 | +10 | 12.6 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB14 | +2 | 11.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB32 | −15 | 6.5 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB29 | −11 | 6.7 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB21 | −2 | 9.6 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB24 | −4 | 8.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB18 | +4 | 10.6 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB19 | +4 | 10.1 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB16 | +8 | 10.8 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB7 | +18 | 12.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB28 | QB13 | +15 | 11.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB29 | QB20 | +9 | 9.6 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Week 5 · Wed, Oct 7
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 5.
Biggest climb: Aaron Jones, RB41 on draft day, RB15 now.
Biggest fall: Devon Achane, RB7 on draft day, RB170 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 19.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB2 | +0 | 15.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB7 | −4 | 13.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB11 | −7 | 11.9 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB13 | −8 | 11.5 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB3 | +3 | 15.1 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB170 | −163 | 0.0 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB10 | −2 | 12.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB19 | −10 | 9.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB32 | −22 | 6.5 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB4 | +7 | 13.0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB6 | +6 | 13.0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB23 | −10 | 9.0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB5 | +9 | 13.0 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB8 | +7 | 12.9 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB31 | −15 | 6.6 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB61 | −43 | 3.6 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB9 | +10 | 12.4 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB20 | +0 | 9.3 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB30 | −9 | 6.8 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB17 | +5 | 9.8 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB26 | −3 | 8.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB21 | +3 | 9.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB25 | RB24 | +1 | 9.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB12 | +15 | 11.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB28 | RB14 | +14 | 10.4 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB22 | +7 | 9.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB18 | +12 | 9.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB32 | RB16 | +16 | 9.9 |
| Aaron Jones | RB41 | RB15 | +26 | 9.9 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Week 5 · Wed, Oct 7
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 5.
Biggest climb: Malik Washington, WR66 on draft day, WR24 now.
Biggest fall: A.J. Brown, WR8 on draft day, WR59 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR4 | −3 | 13.8 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR3 | −1 | 15.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR2 | +1 | 15.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR1 | +3 | 15.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR8 | −3 | 11.8 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR29 | −23 | 8.0 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR17 | −10 | 10.0 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR59 | −51 | 5.7 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR16 | −7 | 10.0 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR13 | −3 | 10.4 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR5 | +6 | 12.5 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR14 | −2 | 10.1 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR22 | −9 | 8.6 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR27 | −13 | 8.3 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR7 | +8 | 11.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR35 | −19 | 7.6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR12 | +5 | 10.5 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR11 | +7 | 11.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR15 | +4 | 10.1 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR62 | −42 | 5.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR28 | −7 | 8.2 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR26 | −4 | 8.3 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR9 | +14 | 11.5 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR64 | −40 | 5.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR20 | +6 | 9.8 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 | WR21 | +8 | 9.5 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR10 | +21 | 11.1 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR19 | +16 | 9.9 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR6 | +30 | 12.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR39 | WR18 | +21 | 9.9 |
| Matthew Golden | WR51 | WR23 | +28 | 8.6 |
| Malik Washington | WR66 | WR24 | +42 | 8.6 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Week 5 · Wed, Oct 7
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 5.
Biggest climb: Cade Otton, TE28 on draft day, TE11 now.
Biggest fall: Jake Ferguson, TE11 on draft day, TE30 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE3 | −2 | 9.6 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 12.1 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE5 | −2 | 9.1 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE4 | +0 | 9.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE8 | −3 | 8.5 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE10 | −4 | 8.2 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE24 | −17 | 6.4 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE7 | +1 | 8.6 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE2 | +7 | 9.9 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE6 | +4 | 8.6 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE30 | −19 | 6.0 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE17 | −5 | 7.3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE12 | +1 | 7.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE23 | −9 | 6.5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE16 | −1 | 7.4 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE15 | +1 | 7.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE18 | −1 | 7.3 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE34 | −16 | 5.2 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE32 | −13 | 5.7 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE26 | −6 | 6.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE9 | +12 | 8.2 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE22 | TE20 | +2 | 7.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE23 | TE13 | +10 | 7.5 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE11 | +17 | 7.9 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE30 | TE14 | +16 | 7.5 |