Week 4 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Playoff race
Standings · Week 4 · Fri, Oct 9
The playoff race after Week 4, from 10,000 simulations of the season:
Climbing: SF 44% → 84%, KC 52% → 86%, MIN 50% → 79%
Falling: LAC 48% → 9%, HOU 60% → 23%
Biggest Week 4 swing: ATL, up 21 points.
| Team | Conf | Record | Playoffs | Division | Since preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | AFC | 3-1 | 86% | 72% | +21 pts |
| KC | AFC | 4-0 | 86% | 64% | +34 pts |
| BUF | AFC | 3-1 | 84% | 63% | +13 pts |
| SF | NFC | 4-0 | 84% | 45% | +40 pts |
| SEA | NFC | 3-1 | 80% | 39% | −1 pts |
| MIN | NFC | 4-0 | 79% | 49% | +29 pts |
| BAL | AFC | 3-1 | 67% | 40% | +1 pts |
| DEN | AFC | 2-2 | 63% | 25% | +8 pts |
| LA | NFC | 2-2 | 63% | 16% | −5 pts |
| CIN | AFC | 2-2 | 62% | 33% | +18 pts |
| NE | AFC | 2-2 | 61% | 32% | −7 pts |
| DET | NFC | 2-2 | 57% | 23% | −10 pts |
| CHI | NFC | 3-1 | 56% | 20% | +10 pts |
| ATL | NFC | 2-2 | 46% | 39% | +15 pts |
| DAL | NFC | 2-2 | 46% | 35% | +7 pts |
| PHI | NFC | 2-2 | 45% | 37% | −18 pts |
| CAR | NFC | 2-2 | 41% | 35% | +14 pts |
| IND | AFC | 2-2 | 40% | 19% | +1 pts |
| PIT | AFC | 2-2 | 37% | 16% | −10 pts |
| LV | AFC | 3-1 | 34% | 9% | +17 pts |
| CLE | AFC | 3-1 | 31% | 12% | +6 pts |
| NYG | NFC | 3-1 | 29% | 21% | +5 pts |
| GB | NFC | 2-2 | 27% | 7% | −19 pts |
| HOU | AFC | 0-4 | 23% | 9% | −37 pts |
| NO | NFC | 1-3 | 23% | 18% | −14 pts |
| NYJ | AFC | 1-3 | 12% | 4% | +3 pts |
| WAS | NFC | 1-3 | 11% | 6% | −16 pts |
| LAC | AFC | 0-4 | 9% | 2% | −40 pts |
| TB | NFC | 0-4 | 8% | 7% | −31 pts |
| ARI | NFC | 1-3 | 5% | 0% | −6 pts |
| MIA | AFC | 0-4 | 2% | 1% | −15 pts |
| TEN | AFC | 0-4 | 1% | 0% | −11 pts |
Team tiers: offense vs. defense by EPA per play
Teams & QBs · Week 4 · Tue, Oct 6
Team tiers through Week 4: every offense and defense by EPA per play (expected points added, how much each play moved a team's scoring chances).
Best net (offense minus defense): SF +0.27, JAX +0.20, KC +0.19.
Worst: MIA −0.24, PHI −0.17, GB −0.14.
4 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Team | Offense EPA/play | Defense EPA/play allowed | Net | Offense success rate | Success rate allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.27 | 54% | 44% |
| JAX | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.20 | 48% | 43% |
| KC | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.19 | 48% | 42% |
| CHI | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.18 | 49% | 41% |
| BAL | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.15 | 50% | 44% |
| LV | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.15 | 44% | 42% |
| MIN | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.12 | 35% | 32% |
| SEA | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.12 | 45% | 37% |
| LAR | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.10 | 46% | 40% |
| BUF | +0.20 | +0.12 | +0.08 | 48% | 49% |
| CAR | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.07 | 43% | 43% |
| CIN | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.07 | 45% | 43% |
| ATL | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.03 | 49% | 38% |
| DAL | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.01 | 49% | 52% |
| NYJ | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | 43% | 50% |
| CLE | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | 44% | 45% |
| NE | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | 43% | 42% |
| DET | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.06 | 50% | 49% |
| WAS | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | 39% | 46% |
| DEN | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.07 | 41% | 44% |
| PIT | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.07 | 43% | 46% |
| NYG | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.08 | 41% | 47% |
| IND | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | 44% | 44% |
| TB | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | 39% | 40% |
| HOU | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.09 | 43% | 40% |
| ARI | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | 46% | 44% |
| TEN | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.11 | 41% | 42% |
| LAC | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | 41% | 43% |
| NO | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.14 | 45% | 52% |
| GB | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.14 | 39% | 47% |
| PHI | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | 37% | 47% |
| MIA | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.24 | 35% | 47% |
QB efficiency: EPA per dropback vs. CPOE
Teams & QBs · Week 4 · Tue, Oct 6
Quarterback efficiency through Week 4: EPA per dropback (how much each dropback helped the offense score, sacks and scrambles included) against completion percentage over expected (accuracy once throw difficulty is taken out).
Best EPA per dropback: Purdy (+0.57), Jackson (+0.38), Allen (+0.32).
Lowest: Mayfield (−0.23), Winston (−0.19), Jones (−0.17).
Most accurate for the throws he attempts: Lawrence, +9.5 points of completion rate over expected.
28 quarterbacks with at least 80 dropbacks.
4 weeks is a small sample, so this describes what has happened, not what comes next.
| Quarterback | Team | Dropbacks | EPA/dropback | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy | SF | 122 | +0.57 | +4.5 |
| L.Jackson | BAL | 111 | +0.38 | +8.1 |
| J.Allen | BUF | 138 | +0.32 | +6.0 |
| D.Prescott | DAL | 168 | +0.29 | +5.4 |
| T.Lawrence | JAX | 114 | +0.27 | +9.5 |
| J.Goff | DET | 174 | +0.27 | +1.5 |
| B.Young | CAR | 175 | +0.25 | +5.7 |
| P.Mahomes | KC | 143 | +0.21 | +0.8 |
| D.Watson | CLE | 140 | +0.18 | +1.3 |
| K.Cousins | LV | 152 | +0.16 | +1.6 |
| G.Smith | NYJ | 138 | +0.14 | +7.9 |
| J.Burrow | CIN | 171 | +0.12 | +5.6 |
| C.Stroud | HOU | 166 | +0.09 | +0.7 |
| M.Stafford | LAR | 169 | +0.09 | −0.1 |
| D.Maye | NE | 142 | +0.05 | +2.3 |
| T.Shough | NO | 198 | +0.04 | +3.2 |
| J.Love | GB | 162 | +0.03 | −7.0 |
| B.Nix | DEN | 145 | −0.02 | −3.1 |
| J.Brissett | ARI | 162 | −0.03 | +2.1 |
| J.Hurts | PHI | 137 | −0.03 | +1.0 |
| C.Ward | TEN | 136 | −0.08 | +2.9 |
| M.Willis | MIA | 127 | −0.08 | −8.8 |
| A.Rodgers | PIT | 168 | −0.11 | −3.5 |
| J.Herbert | LAC | 144 | −0.15 | −4.1 |
| K.Murray | MIN | 84 | −0.16 | +2.8 |
| D.Jones | IND | 144 | −0.17 | −1.7 |
| J.Winston | NYG | 89 | −0.19 | −9.7 |
| B.Mayfield | TB | 118 | −0.23 | +0.3 |
Pass rate over expected
Teams & QBs · Week 4 · Tue, Oct 6
Pass rate over expected through Week 4: how much more or less often each offense drops back to pass than an average team would in the same down, distance, score and time, in percentage points.
Most pass-heavy: CIN (+5.6), CAR (+4.2), DAL (+4.1).
Most run-heavy: ATL (−10.3), NYG (−9.8), MIA (−9.1).
It measures the play-caller's lean, not how well the passes work.
| Team | Pass rate over expected | Pass rate | Expected | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | +5.6 | 69.8% | 64.2% | 255 |
| CAR | +4.2 | 66.2% | 62.0% | 281 |
| DAL | +4.1 | 67.4% | 63.4% | 264 |
| PIT | +4.1 | 70.0% | 65.9% | 263 |
| SF | +3.1 | 55.4% | 52.3% | 231 |
| KC | +2.8 | 58.0% | 55.2% | 257 |
| GB | +2.2 | 69.6% | 67.4% | 250 |
| NO | +2.2 | 69.4% | 67.2% | 301 |
| CLE | +1.6 | 63.6% | 61.9% | 236 |
| LAR | +1.0 | 64.9% | 63.9% | 285 |
| DET | +0.6 | 64.5% | 63.9% | 276 |
| NE | 0.0 | 60.4% | 60.4% | 260 |
| ARI | −0.1 | 63.4% | 63.5% | 273 |
| BUF | −0.4 | 59.8% | 60.2% | 249 |
| HOU | −0.9 | 67.9% | 68.8% | 265 |
| TB | −1.5 | 67.1% | 68.5% | 252 |
| NYJ | −1.8 | 60.9% | 62.7% | 233 |
| WAS | −2.2 | 62.0% | 64.2% | 271 |
| DEN | −2.4 | 62.9% | 65.4% | 240 |
| JAX | −3.0 | 53.6% | 56.6% | 233 |
| LV | −3.2 | 58.7% | 61.9% | 271 |
| CHI | −3.2 | 52.6% | 55.8% | 308 |
| IND | −3.5 | 57.9% | 61.4% | 254 |
| SEA | −3.6 | 54.5% | 58.1% | 244 |
| MIN | −3.8 | 57.5% | 61.3% | 247 |
| BAL | −4.4 | 53.4% | 57.8% | 247 |
| PHI | −6.6 | 60.0% | 66.6% | 240 |
| TEN | −7.0 | 64.0% | 71.0% | 225 |
| LAC | −8.9 | 60.3% | 69.2% | 262 |
| MIA | −9.1 | 60.8% | 69.9% | 227 |
| NYG | −9.8 | 52.0% | 61.8% | 252 |
| ATL | −10.3 | 47.2% | 57.5% | 252 |
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Week 4 · Thu, Oct 1
Model vs. Vegas, Week 4: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: JAX @ CIN. Market CIN -2.5, our numbers CIN +3.1.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX @ CIN | SUN 13:00 | -2.5 | +3.1 | 5.6 |
| ARI @ NYG | SUN 13:00 | +2.5 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| NYJ @ CHI | SUN 13:00 | -3.5 | -6.7 | 3.2 |
| IND @ WAS | SUN 09:30 | +3.5 | +0.5 | 3.0 |
| NE @ BUF | SUN 13:00 | -6.5 | -4 | 2.5 |
| TEN @ BAL | SUN 13:00 | -11.5 | -9.1 | 2.4 |
| LAC @ SEA | SUN 16:25 | -7 | -9.4 | 2.4 |
| GB @ TB | SUN 13:00 | +3.5 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| ATL @ NO | MON 20:15 | -2.5 | -0.8 | 1.7 |
| DET @ CAR | SUN 20:20 | +3.5 | +2.1 | 1.4 |
| PIT @ CLE | THU 20:15 | +2.5 | +1.1 | 1.4 |
| KC @ LV | SUN 16:25 | +4.5 | +3.2 | 1.3 |
| LAR @ PHI | SUN 13:00 | +3 | +1.7 | 1.3 |
| DAL @ HOU | SUN 13:00 | -3 | -2.1 | 0.9 |
| MIA @ MIN | SUN 16:05 | -10.5 | -10 | 0.5 |
| DEN @ SF | SUN 16:25 | -3 | -3.2 | 0.2 |
Where the money went
Betting · Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4
Where the money went, Week 4: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
Biggest move: IND @ WAS, 1.5 pts toward IND (WAS +3 to +4.5).
Moved against most bettors: IND @ WAS (59% on WAS, line to IND); DAL @ HOU (80% on DAL, line to HOU).
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ WAS | +3 | +4.5 | 59% | 41% | Reverse |
| DAL @ HOU | -2.5 | -3 | 20% | 20% | Reverse |
| DEN @ SF | -3 | -2.5 | 61% | 64% | Reverse |
| ATL @ NO | -3 | -2 | 46% | 31% | Split |
| ARI @ NYG | +1 | +2.5 | 40% | 32% | |
| LAR @ PHI | +2.5 | +3.5 | 47% | 60% | |
| NE @ BUF | -6.5 | -7 | 66% | 67% | |
| NYJ @ CHI | -3 | -3.5 | 54% | 50% | |
| GB @ TB | +3.5 | +3 | 47% | 53% | |
| LAC @ SEA | -6.5 | -7 | 56% | 61% | |
| TEN @ BAL | -11.5 | -11.5 | 73% | 78% | |
| JAX @ CIN | -2.5 | -2.5 | 37% | 40% | |
| MIA @ MIN | -10 | -10 | 74% | 62% | |
| KC @ LV | +4.5 | +4.5 | 49% | 44% | |
| DET @ CAR | +3.5 | +3.5 | 37% | 36% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Week 4 · Sat, Oct 3
Trench watch, Week 4: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
SEA rush (87) vs LAC protection (3)
BUF rush (94) vs NE protection (32)
LV rush (90) vs KC protection (45)
JAX rush (52) vs CIN protection (26)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 87 | LAC | 3 | +84 | Rush wins |
| BUF | 94 | NE | 32 | +61 | Rush wins |
| LV | 90 | KC | 45 | +45 | Rush wins |
| JAX | 52 | CIN | 26 | +26 | Rush wins |
| TB | 26 | GB | 0 | +26 | Rush wins |
| NE | 74 | BUF | 52 | +23 | Rush wins |
| KC | 32 | LV | 16 | +16 | |
| MIN | 100 | MIA | 84 | +16 | |
| LAC | 84 | SEA | 74 | +10 | |
| WAS | 39 | IND | 29 | +10 | |
| DET | 65 | CAR | 58 | +6 | |
| CIN | 35 | JAX | 35 | +0 | |
| DEN | 97 | SF | 100 | −3 | |
| ATL | 77 | NO | 81 | −3 | |
| DAL | 45 | HOU | 48 | −3 | |
| PHI | 16 | LA | 23 | −6 | |
| ARI | 6 | NYG | 13 | −6 | |
| CAR | 3 | DET | 10 | −6 | |
| MIA | 13 | MIN | 19 | −6 | |
| HOU | 71 | DAL | 77 | −6 | |
| BAL | 61 | TEN | 71 | −10 | |
| CHI | 29 | NYJ | 42 | −13 | |
| LA | 48 | PHI | 68 | −19 | |
| GB | 42 | TB | 65 | −23 | |
| TEN | 58 | BAL | 87 | −29 | |
| NO | 55 | ATL | 90 | −35 | Line wins |
| NYG | 0 | ARI | 39 | −39 | Line wins |
| IND | 19 | WAS | 61 | −42 | Line wins |
| SF | 23 | DEN | 97 | −74 | Line wins |
| NYJ | 10 | CHI | 94 | −84 | Line wins |
The receipts
Fantasy · Week 4 · Tue, Oct 6
The receipts, Week 4: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.
Average miss: 6.4 pts, 49% within 5.
Biggest boom: Tetairoa McMillan, 11.6 projected, 45.2 scored.
Biggest miss: Parker Washington, 16.3 projected, 2.0 scored.
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Scored | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 11.6 | 45.2 | +33.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 13.6 | 41.3 | +27.7 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 15.3 | 36.7 | +21.4 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 13.1 | 31.3 | +18.2 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 13.2 | 30.8 | +17.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 7.3 | 22.8 | +15.5 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 4.6 | 19.3 | +14.7 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 10.2 | 23.8 | +13.6 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 14.0 | 26.7 | +12.7 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 10.7 | 23.2 | +12.5 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 9.0 | 21.5 | +12.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 13.4 | 25.9 | +12.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 19.3 | 30.9 | +11.6 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 11.1 | 22.4 | +11.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 10.5 | 21.6 | +11.1 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 16.1 | 25.8 | +9.7 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 18.5 | 27.7 | +9.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 10.3 | 18.4 | +8.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 19.6 | 27.7 | +8.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 10.2 | 18.0 | +7.8 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 13.4 | 20.6 | +7.2 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 17.0 | 23.7 | +6.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 16.1 | 22.7 | +6.6 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | PIT | 10.3 | 16.5 | +6.2 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 11.3 | 17.4 | +6.1 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 10.3 | 16.2 | +5.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 9.6 | 14.5 | +4.9 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 12.6 | 17.0 | +4.4 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 9.3 | 13.3 | +4.0 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 17.5 | 21.5 | +3.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 8.8 | 12.6 | +3.8 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 15.4 | 19.1 | +3.7 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 10.1 | 13.6 | +3.5 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 15.3 | 18.6 | +3.3 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 13.6 | 16.8 | +3.2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 9.0 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 17.5 | 20.5 | +2.9 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 13.6 | 16.3 | +2.7 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 13.9 | 16.5 | +2.6 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 15.6 | 18.1 | +2.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 13.1 | 15.6 | +2.5 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 17.3 | 19.6 | +2.3 |
| Luther Burden | WR | CHI | 9.2 | 11.4 | +2.2 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 17.9 | 19.6 | +1.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 17.3 | 18.9 | +1.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 9.6 | 11.1 | +1.5 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 13.2 | 14.6 | +1.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 10.5 | 11.9 | +1.4 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 10.9 | 11.7 | +0.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 10.6 | 11.0 | +0.4 |
| Harold Fannin | TE | CLE | 11.8 | 11.7 | −0.1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 9.4 | 9.1 | −0.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 17.4 | 17.0 | −0.4 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 19.2 | 18.5 | −0.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 16.9 | 16.0 | −0.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 9.6 | 8.5 | −1.1 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 10.7 | 9.5 | −1.2 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 8.8 | 7.6 | −1.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 19.0 | 17.7 | −1.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 8.5 | 7.2 | −1.3 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | NE | 9.9 | 8.3 | −1.6 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 15.4 | 13.6 | −1.9 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 18.1 | 15.9 | −2.2 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 9.4 | 7.0 | −2.4 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 11.6 | 9.1 | −2.5 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 18.6 | 15.9 | −2.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 18.2 | 15.5 | −2.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | 9.2 | 6.3 | −2.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 17.1 | 13.1 | −4.1 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 15.1 | 10.1 | −5.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 11.8 | 6.1 | −5.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 13.1 | 7.4 | −5.7 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 18.4 | 12.6 | −5.8 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 13.9 | 7.7 | −6.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 10.8 | 4.3 | −6.5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 13.0 | 6.5 | −6.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 9.4 | 2.9 | −6.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 16.3 | 9.7 | −6.6 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 11.2 | 4.6 | −6.6 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LA | 13.9 | 7.2 | −6.7 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 14.7 | 7.6 | −7.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 13.0 | 5.7 | −7.3 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | BUF | 10.5 | 2.7 | −7.8 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 11.7 | 3.5 | −8.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 10.5 | 1.7 | −8.8 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 9.0 | 0.0 | −9.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 16.7 | 5.7 | −11.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 14.3 | 0.0 | −14.3 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 16.3 | 2.0 | −14.3 |
Receiver usage: target share vs. air-yards share
Fantasy · Week 4 · Tue, Oct 6
Receiver usage through Week 4: each wide receiver and tight end's share of his team's targets against his share of its air yards (how far downfield the throws to him travel).
Biggest target shares: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, 37%), D.Smith (PHI, 33%), C.Lamb (DAL, 32%).
Biggest air-yards shares: A.Mitchell (NYJ, 58%), C.Tate (TEN, 52%), D.Boston (CLE, 51%).
Shares are of the team's totals in the games each player played. 96 receivers with at least 4 targets a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Targets | Target share | Air yards | Air-yards share | Avg depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 42 | 37% | 414 | 50% | 9.9 |
| D.Smith | WR | PHI | 27 | 33% | 323 | 48% | 12.0 |
| C.Tate | WR | TEN | 32 | 30% | 379 | 52% | 11.8 |
| C.Lamb | WR | DAL | 46 | 32% | 470 | 46% | 10.2 |
| A.Mitchell | WR | NYJ | 15 | 25% | 237 | 58% | 15.8 |
| Mi.Wilson | WR | ARI | 44 | 30% | 418 | 45% | 9.5 |
| C.Olave | WR | NO | 48 | 28% | 648 | 45% | 13.5 |
| B.Bowers | TE | LV | 24 | 31% | 254 | 36% | 10.6 |
| G.Wilson | WR | NYJ | 31 | 28% | 315 | 41% | 10.2 |
| T.Higgins | WR | CIN | 39 | 25% | 521 | 46% | 13.4 |
| P.Washington | WR | JAX | 26 | 26% | 367 | 44% | 14.1 |
| Z.Flowers | WR | BAL | 22 | 30% | 224 | 34% | 10.2 |
| N.Collins | WR | HOU | 18 | 29% | 232 | 37% | 12.9 |
| D.London | WR | ATL | 25 | 27% | 208 | 40% | 8.3 |
| T.McBride | TE | ARI | 46 | 31% | 252 | 27% | 5.5 |
| P.Nacua | WR | LAR | 21 | 27% | 251 | 35% | 12.0 |
| D.Adams | WR | LAR | 38 | 24% | 636 | 41% | 16.7 |
| A.St. Brown | WR | DET | 46 | 29% | 373 | 30% | 8.1 |
| D.Boston | WR | CLE | 22 | 19% | 383 | 51% | 17.4 |
| M.Golden | WR | GB | 37 | 25% | 505 | 39% | 13.6 |
| I.Likely | TE | NYG | 35 | 32% | 245 | 24% | 7.0 |
| T.McMillan | WR | CAR | 39 | 27% | 447 | 33% | 11.5 |
| M.Washington | WR | MIA | 28 | 27% | 312 | 31% | 11.1 |
| J.Jefferson | WR | MIN | 17 | 25% | 189 | 33% | 11.1 |
| D.Metcalf | WR | PIT | 33 | 23% | 494 | 38% | 15.0 |
| J.Downs | WR | IND | 28 | 23% | 279 | 37% | 10.0 |
| J.Addison | WR | MIN | 22 | 22% | 272 | 37% | 12.4 |
| T.McLaurin | WR | WAS | 22 | 24% | 286 | 33% | 13.0 |
| M.Evans | WR | SF | 24 | 22% | 315 | 36% | 13.1 |
| J.Waddle | WR | DEN | 26 | 21% | 277 | 37% | 10.7 |
| T.Hockenson | TE | MIN | 26 | 26% | 176 | 24% | 6.8 |
| L.Burden | WR | CHI | 29 | 24% | 238 | 28% | 8.2 |
| M.Nabers | WR | NYG | 26 | 23% | 298 | 29% | 11.5 |
| K.Concepcion | WR | CLE | 28 | 24% | 173 | 23% | 6.2 |
| G.Pickens | WR | DAL | 28 | 19% | 340 | 33% | 12.1 |
| S.Diggs | WR | WAS | 31 | 24% | 280 | 22% | 9.0 |
| R.Odunze | WR | CHI | 20 | 17% | 305 | 36% | 15.2 |
| C.Sutton | WR | DEN | 22 | 18% | 252 | 34% | 11.5 |
| C.Watson | WR | GB | 32 | 21% | 327 | 25% | 10.2 |
| E.Egbuka | WR | TB | 24 | 20% | 268 | 27% | 11.2 |
| D.Wicks | WR | PHI | 20 | 19% | 249 | 28% | 12.4 |
| M.Andrews | TE | BAL | 24 | 24% | 172 | 18% | 7.2 |
| J.Coker | WR | CAR | 22 | 20% | 252 | 24% | 11.5 |
| X.Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 26 | 19% | 361 | 27% | 13.9 |
| C.Douglas | WR | MIA | 10 | 20% | 114 | 24% | 11.4 |
| T.Tucker | WR | LV | 23 | 17% | 357 | 30% | 15.5 |
| K.Allen | WR | IND | 20 | 21% | 124 | 20% | 6.2 |
| R.Doubs | WR | NE | 20 | 17% | 322 | 29% | 16.1 |
| D.Moore | WR | BUF | 20 | 18% | 303 | 27% | 15.2 |
| X.Worthy | WR | KC | 22 | 19% | 210 | 25% | 9.5 |
| G.Kittle | TE | SF | 22 | 20% | 184 | 21% | 8.4 |
| R.Rice | WR | KC | 17 | 19% | 126 | 24% | 7.4 |
| R.Wilson | WR | PIT | 24 | 17% | 368 | 28% | 15.3 |
| W.Robinson | WR | TEN | 23 | 21% | 129 | 18% | 5.6 |
| J.Williams | WR | DET | 25 | 16% | 361 | 29% | 14.4 |
| M.Hollins | WR | NE | 20 | 17% | 297 | 27% | 14.8 |
| T.Harris | WR | LAC | 21 | 18% | 253 | 24% | 12.0 |
| H.Fannin | TE | CLE | 23 | 20% | 140 | 19% | 6.1 |
| D.Vele | WR | NO | 31 | 18% | 316 | 22% | 10.2 |
| D.Cooper | WR | PHI | 10 | 17% | 123 | 24% | 12.3 |
| J.Chase | WR | CIN | 28 | 18% | 226 | 20% | 8.1 |
| S.LaPorta | TE | DET | 32 | 20% | 188 | 15% | 5.9 |
| D.Kincaid | TE | BUF | 19 | 17% | 239 | 21% | 12.6 |
| K.Shakir | WR | BUF | 23 | 21% | 152 | 13% | 6.6 |
| Q.Johnston | WR | LAC | 19 | 16% | 237 | 22% | 12.5 |
| C.Otton | TE | TB | 23 | 19% | 161 | 16% | 7.0 |
| T.Hurst | WR | TB | 16 | 13% | 277 | 28% | 17.3 |
| K.Raymond | WR | CHI | 23 | 19% | 130 | 15% | 5.7 |
| B.Strange | TE | JAX | 18 | 18% | 141 | 17% | 7.8 |
| T.Kelce | TE | KC | 22 | 19% | 132 | 16% | 6.0 |
| T.Warren | TE | IND | 27 | 22% | 59 | 8% | 2.2 |
| D.Schultz | TE | HOU | 27 | 20% | 161 | 12% | 6.0 |
| L.McConkey | WR | LAC | 17 | 15% | 228 | 22% | 13.4 |
| A.Williams | WR | WAS | 19 | 15% | 220 | 17% | 11.6 |
| K.Coleman | WR | BUF | 16 | 14% | 205 | 18% | 12.8 |
| K.Sadiq | TE | NYJ | 18 | 16% | 97 | 13% | 5.4 |
| M.Mayer | TE | LV | 24 | 18% | 116 | 10% | 4.8 |
| D.Douglas | WR | NE | 17 | 14% | 180 | 16% | 10.6 |
| R.Flournoy | WR | DAL | 23 | 16% | 123 | 12% | 5.3 |
| J.Johnson | TE | NO | 27 | 16% | 162 | 11% | 6.0 |
| T.Kraft | TE | GB | 24 | 16% | 131 | 10% | 5.5 |
| C.Loveland | TE | CHI | 18 | 15% | 102 | 12% | 5.7 |
| B.Tremayne | WR | CAR | 9 | 11% | 145 | 20% | 16.1 |
| D.Njoku | TE | LAC | 8 | 15% | 53 | 10% | 6.6 |
| I.TeSlaa | WR | DET | 17 | 11% | 218 | 18% | 12.8 |
| P.Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 19 | 13% | 155 | 12% | 8.2 |
| D.Samuel | WR | SF | 17 | 15% | 50 | 6% | 2.9 |
| C.Godwin | WR | TB | 18 | 15% | 68 | 7% | 3.8 |
| D.Waller | TE | CAR | 19 | 13% | 141 | 10% | 7.4 |
| J.Metchie | WR | CAR | 10 | 12% | 81 | 11% | 8.1 |
| T.Higbee | TE | LAR | 19 | 12% | 151 | 10% | 7.9 |
| M.Pittman | WR | PIT | 12 | 11% | 113 | 10% | 9.4 |
| J.Reed | WR | GB | 8 | 12% | 45 | 7% | 5.6 |
| T.Ferguson | TE | LAR | 12 | 11% | 79 | 7% | 6.6 |
| D.Meyers | WR | CIN | 16 | 10% | 84 | 7% | 5.2 |
| N.Fant | TE | NO | 12 | 10% | 61 | 6% | 5.1 |
Workload vs. points: expected fantasy points vs. actual
Fantasy · Week 4 · Tue, Oct 6
Workload vs. points through Week 4: expected PPR points per game (what an average player scores on the same carries and targets) against what each player has actually scored.
Furthest above their workload: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+10.0), Zay Flowers (+9.0), Nico Collins (+7.1) points a game.
Furthest below: Courtland Sutton (−5.5), Michael Wilson (−5.0), J.K. Dobbins (−4.7).
Workload is the steadier half, so big gaps tend to close: in 2024 and 2025 the players furthest above theirs after four weeks kept under a third of the gap the rest of the way, and the ones furthest below got back to even. A tendency across players, not a forecast for any one of them.
121 running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with at least 8 expected points a game.
| Player | Pos | Team | Games | Expected pts/game | Actual pts/game | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 4 | 19.2 | 29.2 | +10.0 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 3 | 13.4 | 22.4 | +9.0 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 2 | 18.9 | 26.0 | +7.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 4 | 19.9 | 26.3 | +6.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 4 | 22.2 | 28.0 | +5.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 4 | 14.4 | 19.8 | +5.4 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 4 | 11.5 | 16.1 | +4.6 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 4 | 14.9 | 19.3 | +4.3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 3 | 10.7 | 15.0 | +4.2 |
| Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | 4 | 9.7 | 13.8 | +4.2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 4 | 18.3 | 22.4 | +4.1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 4 | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.0 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 4 | 10.8 | 14.3 | +3.6 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 4 | 9.1 | 12.6 | +3.5 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 3 | 14.0 | 17.4 | +3.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 3 | 9.4 | 12.7 | +3.3 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | 4 | 8.0 | 11.1 | +3.1 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | CHI | 4 | 9.2 | 12.2 | +3.1 |
| Darius Cooper | WR | PHI | 2 | 11.6 | 14.4 | +2.9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 4 | 24.8 | 27.5 | +2.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 4 | 12.3 | 15.1 | +2.7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 4 | 12.4 | 15.1 | +2.6 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 4 | 20.2 | 22.7 | +2.5 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 2 | 21.6 | 24.1 | +2.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 4 | 13.3 | 15.8 | +2.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 4 | 9.1 | 11.5 | +2.4 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 4 | 8.1 | 10.4 | +2.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 4 | 19.3 | 21.6 | +2.2 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 4 | 14.6 | 16.6 | +2.0 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | 4 | 12.1 | 14.1 | +2.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 4 | 8.3 | 10.1 | +1.8 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 4 | 20.8 | 22.5 | +1.7 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | PIT | 4 | 9.5 | 11.2 | +1.7 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 4 | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 4 | 9.5 | 11.1 | +1.6 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LAR | 4 | 16.7 | 18.2 | +1.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 4 | 27.2 | 28.8 | +1.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 4 | 8.2 | 9.7 | +1.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 4 | 10.5 | 11.9 | +1.4 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 4 | 16.4 | 17.8 | +1.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 4 | 21.6 | 22.8 | +1.2 |
| Darren Waller | TE | CAR | 4 | 8.8 | 9.9 | +1.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 3 | 15.0 | 16.2 | +1.2 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 4 | 11.0 | 12.1 | +1.2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 3 | 8.9 | 10.0 | +1.1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | SF | 4 | 9.9 | 11.0 | +1.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 4 | 12.2 | 13.2 | +1.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 4 | 9.7 | 10.6 | +0.9 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 4 | 19.6 | 20.4 | +0.8 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 4 | 8.4 | 9.2 | +0.8 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | +0.7 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 4 | 10.4 | 11.1 | +0.7 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 2 | 19.4 | 20.1 | +0.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 4 | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.6 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 4 | 10.7 | 11.2 | +0.5 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 3 | 12.2 | 12.7 | +0.5 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | 4 | 10.3 | 10.7 | +0.4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 4 | 18.3 | 18.6 | +0.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 3 | 11.5 | 11.7 | +0.2 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | NE | 4 | 8.8 | 9.0 | +0.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 4 | 10.8 | 11.0 | +0.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | PHI | 4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | +0.1 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 4 | 12.7 | 12.8 | +0.1 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 4 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 0.0 |
| Tre Harris | WR | LAC | 4 | 8.6 | 8.5 | −0.1 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 4 | 9.4 | 9.3 | −0.1 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | 4 | 11.9 | 11.7 | −0.2 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 4 | 9.4 | 9.1 | −0.3 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 4 | 14.2 | 13.9 | −0.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 4 | 14.5 | 14.1 | −0.4 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 4 | 12.8 | 12.2 | −0.6 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | 4 | 8.3 | 7.7 | −0.6 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 4 | 12.4 | 11.8 | −0.6 |
| John Metchie III | WR | CAR | 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | −0.7 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 4 | 9.2 | 8.3 | −0.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 4 | 11.8 | 10.8 | −1.0 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 4 | 10.7 | 9.7 | −1.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 4 | 12.2 | 11.2 | −1.0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | 4 | 8.0 | 6.9 | −1.1 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 3 | 15.3 | 14.2 | −1.1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | −1.1 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 3 | 10.9 | 9.7 | −1.2 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | 4 | 8.9 | 7.7 | −1.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 4 | 10.5 | 9.0 | −1.5 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 4 | 14.5 | 12.9 | −1.6 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | 2 | 12.2 | 10.7 | −1.6 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 4 | 16.1 | 14.5 | −1.6 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 4 | 12.7 | 11.1 | −1.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 4 | 15.9 | 14.2 | −1.7 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 4 | 13.5 | 11.7 | −1.7 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 4 | 16.2 | 14.5 | −1.7 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 4 | 11.7 | 9.7 | −2.0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 4 | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 4 | 11.1 | 9.0 | −2.1 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 4 | 14.2 | 12.1 | −2.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 4 | 10.6 | 8.3 | −2.2 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | 4 | 11.6 | 9.3 | −2.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 4 | 20.8 | 18.5 | −2.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 4 | 18.2 | 15.9 | −2.3 |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | −2.4 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 4 | 19.8 | 17.3 | −2.5 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 4 | 13.4 | 10.8 | −2.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | −2.6 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 4 | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | NO | 3 | 13.0 | 10.3 | −2.7 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 4 | 9.5 | 6.5 | −3.0 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | PIT | 2 | 8.4 | 5.2 | −3.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 4 | 12.7 | 9.5 | −3.2 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | 4 | 10.9 | 7.6 | −3.3 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 3 | 11.5 | 8.2 | −3.3 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 4 | 10.6 | 7.2 | −3.4 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 4 | 10.8 | 7.4 | −3.4 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 3 | 13.5 | 10.0 | −3.4 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 4 | 13.1 | 9.6 | −3.5 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | −3.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 4 | 22.7 | 18.5 | −4.2 |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | 3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | −4.3 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | −4.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | −4.7 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 4 | 19.2 | 14.2 | −5.0 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 4 | 9.9 | 4.4 | −5.5 |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Week 4 · Wed, Sep 30
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB3 now.
Biggest fall: Jaxson Dart, QB11 on draft day, QB86 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 15.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB5 | −3 | 13.6 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB7 | −4 | 12.6 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB14 | −10 | 11.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB37 | −32 | 4.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB21 | −15 | 10.2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB25 | −18 | 8.3 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB8 | +0 | 12.5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB13 | −4 | 12.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB12 | −2 | 12.2 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB86 | −75 | 0.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB11 | +1 | 12.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB4 | +9 | 13.7 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 14.3 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB6 | +9 | 13.1 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB9 | +7 | 12.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB20 | −3 | 10.2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB33 | −15 | 5.9 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB22 | −3 | 10.0 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB10 | +10 | 12.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB17 | +5 | 10.4 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB15 | +8 | 11.3 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB16 | +8 | 10.9 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB3 | +22 | 13.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB28 | QB19 | +9 | 10.3 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Week 4 · Wed, Sep 30
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Aaron Jones, RB41 on draft day, RB19 now.
Biggest fall: Devon Achane, RB7 on draft day, RB168 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 18.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB2 | +0 | 15.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB5 | −2 | 13.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB8 | −4 | 12.3 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB12 | −7 | 11.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB4 | +2 | 14.9 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB168 | −161 | 0.0 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB7 | +1 | 12.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB14 | −5 | 10.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB27 | −17 | 8.3 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB3 | +8 | 15.3 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB6 | +6 | 13.2 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB21 | −8 | 9.6 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB11 | +3 | 11.7 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB10 | +5 | 11.8 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB15 | +1 | 10.5 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB16 | +2 | 10.4 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB9 | +10 | 12.0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB23 | −3 | 9.3 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB35 | −14 | 6.8 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB13 | +9 | 10.5 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB29 | −6 | 7.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB20 | +4 | 9.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB17 | +10 | 9.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB28 | RB22 | +6 | 9.4 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB18 | +11 | 9.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB24 | +6 | 9.2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB41 | RB19 | +22 | 9.6 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Week 4 · Wed, Sep 30
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Jalen Coker, WR54 on draft day, WR24 now.
Biggest fall: A.J. Brown, WR8 on draft day, WR59 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR3 | −2 | 14.7 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR8 | −6 | 11.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR2 | +1 | 15.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR1 | +3 | 16.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR7 | −2 | 11.9 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR15 | −9 | 10.4 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR13 | −6 | 10.8 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR59 | −51 | 5.6 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR42 | −33 | 7.1 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR16 | −6 | 10.3 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR4 | +7 | 13.4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR10 | +2 | 11.4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR32 | −19 | 8.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR18 | −4 | 10.1 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR6 | +9 | 12.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR27 | −11 | 8.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR17 | +0 | 10.2 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR11 | +7 | 11.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR19 | +0 | 10.0 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR28 | −8 | 8.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR31 | −10 | 8.1 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR30 | −8 | 8.1 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR9 | +14 | 11.5 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR43 | −19 | 6.8 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR20 | +6 | 9.8 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 | WR22 | +7 | 8.9 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR5 | +26 | 12.5 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR21 | +14 | 9.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR36 | WR14 | +22 | 10.4 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR39 | WR12 | +27 | 10.9 |
| Josh Downs | WR41 | WR23 | +18 | 8.8 |
| Jalen Coker | WR54 | WR24 | +30 | 8.8 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Week 4 · Wed, Sep 30
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 4.
Biggest climb: Cade Otton, TE28 on draft day, TE8 now.
Biggest fall: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE19 on draft day, TE39 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE6 | −5 | 9.3 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE1 | +1 | 12.5 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE4 | −1 | 9.6 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE3 | +1 | 9.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE9 | −4 | 8.5 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE11 | −5 | 8.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE12 | −5 | 8.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE10 | −2 | 8.3 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE2 | +7 | 9.8 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE5 | +5 | 9.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE28 | −17 | 6.1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE15 | −3 | 7.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE7 | +6 | 8.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE25 | −11 | 6.5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE19 | −4 | 7.1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE20 | −4 | 7.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE18 | −1 | 7.1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE36 | −18 | 4.8 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE39 | −20 | 4.4 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE23 | −3 | 6.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE17 | +4 | 7.2 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE22 | TE14 | +8 | 7.5 |
| AJ Barner | TE25 | TE13 | +12 | 7.7 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE8 | +20 | 8.5 |