Week 1 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Playoff race
Standings · Fri, Sep 18
The playoff race after Week 1, from 10,000 simulations of the season:
Climbing: SF 44% → 67%, CHI 46% → 65%, KC 52% → 69%
Falling: LAR 68% → 50%, GB 46% → 31%
Biggest Week 1 swing: SF, up 23 points.
| Team | Conf | Record | Playoffs | Division | Since preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | AFC | 1-0 | 81% | 58% | +10 pts |
| BAL | AFC | 1-0 | 78% | 51% | +12 pts |
| SEA | NFC | 1-0 | 77% | 44% | −4 pts |
| JAX | AFC | 1-0 | 70% | 49% | +4 pts |
| KC | AFC | 1-0 | 69% | 49% | +17 pts |
| SF | NFC | 1-0 | 67% | 33% | +23 pts |
| PHI | NFC | 1-0 | 67% | 54% | +4 pts |
| CHI | NFC | 1-0 | 65% | 34% | +19 pts |
| NE | AFC | 0-1 | 64% | 35% | −5 pts |
| DET | NFC | 1-0 | 62% | 31% | −5 pts |
| CIN | AFC | 1-0 | 56% | 24% | +11 pts |
| MIN | NFC | 1-0 | 56% | 25% | +6 pts |
| HOU | AFC | 0-1 | 55% | 34% | −5 pts |
| PIT | AFC | 1-0 | 51% | 22% | +4 pts |
| LA | NFC | 0-1 | 50% | 17% | −18 pts |
| DEN | AFC | 0-1 | 49% | 26% | −6 pts |
| TB | NFC | 0-1 | 44% | 38% | +5 pts |
| LAC | AFC | 0-1 | 35% | 17% | −14 pts |
| NYG | NFC | 1-0 | 34% | 21% | +10 pts |
| GB | NFC | 0-1 | 31% | 10% | −15 pts |
| NO | NFC | 0-1 | 31% | 25% | −6 pts |
| IND | AFC | 0-1 | 30% | 14% | −10 pts |
| CAR | NFC | 0-1 | 27% | 22% | +0 pts |
| DAL | NFC | 0-1 | 26% | 15% | −13 pts |
| ARI | NFC | 1-0 | 22% | 6% | +11 pts |
| WAS | NFC | 0-1 | 21% | 11% | −6 pts |
| ATL | NFC | 0-1 | 21% | 16% | −11 pts |
| LV | AFC | 1-0 | 19% | 8% | +3 pts |
| NYJ | AFC | 1-0 | 15% | 5% | +6 pts |
| CLE | AFC | 0-1 | 13% | 4% | −11 pts |
| MIA | AFC | 0-1 | 7% | 2% | −10 pts |
| TEN | AFC | 0-1 | 7% | 3% | −5 pts |
Trench watch
Trenches · Sat, Sep 12
Trench watch, Week 1: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
DEN rush (100) vs KC protection (23)
GB rush (74) vs MIN protection (0)
DAL rush (87) vs NYG protection (19)
MIN rush (97) vs GB protection (39)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 100 | KC | 23 | +77 | Rush wins |
| GB | 74 | MIN | 0 | +74 | Rush wins |
| DAL | 87 | NYG | 19 | +68 | Rush wins |
| MIN | 97 | GB | 39 | +58 | Rush wins |
| TEN | 65 | NYJ | 10 | +55 | Rush wins |
| CLE | 94 | JAX | 61 | +32 | Rush wins |
| LA | 90 | SF | 58 | +32 | |
| LAC | 55 | ARI | 26 | +29 | |
| PHI | 77 | WAS | 52 | +26 | |
| SEA | 61 | NE | 35 | +26 | |
| NO | 39 | DET | 16 | +23 | |
| JAX | 19 | CLE | 3 | +16 | |
| PIT | 71 | ATL | 65 | +6 | |
| NYG | 58 | DAL | 55 | +3 | |
| MIA | 16 | LV | 13 | +3 | |
| ARI | 10 | LAC | 6 | +3 | |
| BUF | 81 | HOU | 77 | +3 | |
| IND | 29 | BAL | 32 | −3 | |
| KC | 84 | DEN | 90 | −6 | |
| DET | 68 | NO | 74 | −6 | |
| BAL | 32 | IND | 42 | −10 | |
| CHI | 26 | CAR | 45 | −19 | |
| NYJ | 6 | TEN | 29 | −23 | |
| TB | 23 | CIN | 48 | −26 | |
| NE | 52 | SEA | 81 | −29 | |
| LV | 35 | MIA | 68 | −32 | |
| HOU | 48 | BUF | 84 | −35 | |
| WAS | 42 | PHI | 87 | −45 | Line wins |
| ATL | 45 | PIT | 94 | −48 | Line wins |
| SF | 0 | LA | 71 | −71 | Line wins |
| CIN | 13 | TB | 100 | −87 | Line wins |
| CAR | 3 | CHI | 97 | −94 | Line wins |