Week 10 charts
Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.
Model vs. Vegas
Betting · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Model vs. Vegas, Week 10: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.
Biggest gap: BUF @ NYJ. Market BUF -8.5, our numbers BUF -9.5.
Starting QB in doubt, per ESPN: LAC @ BAL, Tyler Huntley (BAL, on injured reserve); Justin Herbert (LAC, questionable); SEA @ LV, Sam Darnold (SEA, out); WAS @ NYG, J.J. McCarthy (NYG, questionable); MIA @ IND, Malik Willis (MIA, questionable); MIN @ GB, Kyler Murray (MIN, questionable); LAR @ ARI, Gardner Minshew (ARI, doubtful); KC @ ATL, Patrick Mahomes (KC, questionable); HOU @ CLE, Deshaun Watson (CLE, questionable). Our number has the listed starter playing and changes if he sits, so those games are left out of the biggest gap above.
Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.
| Game | Kickoff | Line (home) | Ours (home) | Gap | Starting QB in doubt (ESPN status) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ BAL | MON 20:15 | -5.5 | -0.8 | 4.8 | Tyler Huntley (BAL, on injured reserve); Justin Herbert (LAC, questionable) |
| SEA @ LV | SUN 16:05 | +3.5 | +7.9 | 4.4 | Sam Darnold (SEA, out) |
| WAS @ NYG | THU 20:15 | -2.5 | +0.3 | 2.9 | J.J. McCarthy (NYG, questionable) |
| MIA @ IND | SUN 13:00 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 2.0 | Malik Willis (MIA, questionable) |
| MIN @ GB | SUN 13:00 | -4.5 | -3.2 | 1.3 | Kyler Murray (MIN, questionable) |
| LAR @ ARI | SUN 16:05 | +9.5 | +8.2 | 1.3 | Gardner Minshew (ARI, doubtful) |
| BUF @ NYJ | SUN 13:00 | +8.5 | +9.5 | 1.0 | |
| CAR @ NO | SUN 13:00 | -1.5 | -0.6 | 0.9 | |
| NE @ DET | SUN 09:30 | -2.5 | -1.8 | 0.7 | |
| PIT @ CIN | SUN 20:20 | -3.5 | -3.1 | 0.4 | |
| KC @ ATL | SUN 13:00 | +3.5 | +3.8 | 0.3 | Patrick Mahomes (KC, questionable) |
| JAX @ TEN | SUN 13:00 | +10.5 | +10.7 | 0.2 | |
| SF @ DAL | SUN 16:25 | +4.5 | +4.4 | 0.1 | |
| HOU @ CLE | SUN 13:00 | +4.5 | +4.6 | 0.1 | Deshaun Watson (CLE, questionable) |
Implied team totals
Betting · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Implied team totals for Week 10: the points the betting market expects from each team, from the game total and the spread (half the total, plus or minus half the spread).
Highest: SF 30.0 (at DAL), BUF 29.5 (at NYJ), JAX 28.5 (at TEN).
Lowest: ARI 15.5 (vs LAR), LAC 16.5 (at BAL), CLE 17.5 (vs HOU).
On bye: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
The market's numbers, not ours, and not picks.
| Team | Opponent | Implied points | Spread | Game total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | at DAL | 30.0 | -4.5 | 55.5 |
| BUF | at NYJ | 29.5 | -8.5 | 50.5 |
| JAX | at TEN | 28.5 | -10.5 | 46.5 |
| DET | vs NE | 27.0 | -2.5 | 51.5 |
| CIN | vs PIT | 26.0 | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| DAL | vs SF | 25.5 | +4.5 | 55.5 |
| LAR | at ARI | 25.0 | -9.5 | 40.5 |
| NO | vs CAR | 25.0 | -1.5 | 48.5 |
| KC | at ATL | 24.5 | -3.5 | 45.5 |
| NE | at DET | 24.5 | +2.5 | 51.5 |
| CAR | at NO | 23.5 | +1.5 | 48.5 |
| SEA | at LV | 23.5 | -3.5 | 43.5 |
| GB | vs MIN | 22.5 | -4.5 | 40.5 |
| PIT | at CIN | 22.5 | +3.5 | 48.5 |
| BAL | vs LAC | 22.0 | -5.5 | 38.5 |
| HOU | at CLE | 22.0 | -4.5 | 39.5 |
| NYG | vs WAS | 22.0 | -2.5 | 41.5 |
| IND | vs MIA | 21.5 | -2.5 | 40.5 |
| ATL | vs KC | 21.0 | +3.5 | 45.5 |
| NYJ | vs BUF | 21.0 | +8.5 | 50.5 |
| LV | vs SEA | 20.0 | +3.5 | 43.5 |
| WAS | at NYG | 19.5 | +2.5 | 41.5 |
| MIA | at IND | 19.0 | +2.5 | 40.5 |
| MIN | at GB | 18.0 | +4.5 | 40.5 |
| TEN | vs JAX | 18.0 | +10.5 | 46.5 |
| CLE | vs HOU | 17.5 | +4.5 | 39.5 |
| LAC | at BAL | 16.5 | +5.5 | 38.5 |
| ARI | vs LAR | 15.5 | +9.5 | 40.5 |
Where the money went
Betting · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Where the money went, Week 10: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.
No spread has moved off its open yet.
Market data, not picks.
| Game | Open (home) | Now (home) | Bets on home | Money on home | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ DET | -3 | -3 | 13% | 38% | Split |
| WAS @ NYG | -2.5 | -2.5 | 45% | 42% | |
| KC @ ATL | +3.5 | +3.5 | 16% | 11% | |
| HOU @ CLE | +5 | +5 | 31% | 38% | |
| MIN @ GB | -4.5 | -4.5 | 64% | 78% | |
| MIA @ IND | -2.5 | -2.5 | 60% | 49% | |
| CAR @ NO | -1 | -1 | 30% | 19% | |
| BUF @ NYJ | +8 | +8 | 12% | 8% | |
| JAX @ TEN | +10.5 | +10.5 | 11% | 8% | |
| LAR @ ARI | +9.5 | +9.5 | 37% | 23% | |
| SEA @ LV | +3.5 | +3.5 | 22% | 9% | |
| SF @ DAL | +4 | +4 | 19% | 25% | |
| PIT @ CIN | -3.5 | -3.5 | 58% | 56% | |
| LAC @ BAL | -5 | -5 | 38% | 34% |
Trench watch
Trenches · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Trench watch, Week 10: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).
HOU rush (77) vs CLE protection (0)
BUF rush (94) vs NYJ protection (23)
LAC rush (68) vs BAL protection (16)
MIN rush (100) vs GB protection (48)
| Defense | Pass rush pctl | Offense | Protection pctl | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 77 | CLE | 0 | +77 | Rush wins |
| BUF | 94 | NYJ | 23 | +71 | Rush wins |
| LAC | 68 | BAL | 16 | +52 | Rush wins |
| MIN | 100 | GB | 48 | +52 | Rush wins |
| ATL | 81 | KC | 29 | +52 | Rush wins |
| SEA | 90 | LV | 39 | +52 | Rush wins |
| BAL | 52 | LAC | 3 | +48 | |
| PIT | 71 | CIN | 26 | +45 | |
| LV | 74 | SEA | 32 | +42 | |
| GB | 48 | MIN | 10 | +39 | |
| DET | 87 | NE | 55 | +32 | |
| NE | 61 | DET | 35 | +26 | |
| MIA | 45 | IND | 19 | +26 | |
| WAS | 29 | NYG | 6 | +23 | |
| CLE | 84 | HOU | 87 | −3 | |
| LA | 10 | ARI | 13 | −3 | |
| NO | 39 | CAR | 52 | −13 | |
| TEN | 55 | JAX | 68 | −13 | |
| JAX | 65 | TEN | 77 | −13 | |
| NYJ | 42 | BUF | 65 | −23 | |
| NYG | 19 | WAS | 42 | −23 | |
| CIN | 26 | PIT | 61 | −35 | |
| IND | 23 | MIA | 58 | −35 | |
| DAL | 35 | SF | 94 | −58 | Line wins |
| ARI | 16 | LA | 81 | −65 | Line wins |
| KC | 32 | ATL | 97 | −65 | Line wins |
| SF | 13 | DAL | 84 | −71 | Line wins |
| CAR | 0 | NO | 74 | −74 | Line wins |
Draft day vs. now: QB
Fantasy · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 10.
Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB5 now.
Biggest fall: Lamar Jackson, QB2 on draft day, QB35 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB1 | QB1 | +0 | 14.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 | QB35 | −33 | 5.3 |
| Joe Burrow | QB3 | QB3 | +0 | 13.0 |
| Drake Maye | QB4 | QB9 | −5 | 12.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB5 | QB14 | −9 | 10.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB6 | QB34 | −28 | 5.4 |
| Caleb Williams | QB7 | QB10 | −3 | 12.3 |
| Dak Prescott | QB8 | QB15 | −7 | 11.3 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 | QB17 | −8 | 9.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 | QB7 | +3 | 11.2 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB11 | QB25 | −14 | 7.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB12 | QB19 | −7 | 10.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 | QB12 | +1 | 10.9 |
| Brock Purdy | QB14 | QB2 | +12 | 14.5 |
| Bo Nix | QB15 | QB16 | −1 | 11.2 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 | QB8 | +8 | 11.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB17 | QB21 | −4 | 8.9 |
| Kyler Murray | QB18 | QB36 | −18 | 4.7 |
| Jordan Love | QB19 | QB18 | +1 | 10.8 |
| Tyler Shough | QB20 | QB4 | +16 | 12.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB22 | QB11 | +11 | 10.9 |
| Daniel Jones | QB23 | QB20 | +3 | 9.5 |
| Cam Ward | QB24 | QB6 | +18 | 11.3 |
| Bryce Young | QB25 | QB5 | +20 | 11.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB29 | QB13 | +16 | 10.7 |
Draft day vs. now: RB
Fantasy · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 10.
Biggest climb: Braelon Allen, RB56 on draft day, RB22 now.
Biggest fall: Jeremiyah Love, RB13 on draft day, RB76 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | RB1 | +0 | 16.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB4 | −2 | 14.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 | RB2 | +1 | 13.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 | RB14 | −10 | 11.0 |
| James Cook | RB5 | RB10 | −5 | 10.8 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB3 | +3 | 14.5 |
| Devon Achane | RB7 | RB51 | −44 | 5.1 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB5 | +3 | 12.6 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 | RB17 | −8 | 9.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB10 | RB41 | −31 | 7.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB11 | RB6 | +5 | 12.0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB12 | RB13 | −1 | 11.0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB13 | RB76 | −63 | 2.9 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 | RB9 | +5 | 12.8 |
| Javonte Williams | RB15 | RB7 | +8 | 13.2 |
| Breece Hall | RB16 | RB19 | −3 | 10.5 |
| Travis Etienne | RB18 | RB72 | −54 | 2.7 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB19 | RB32 | −13 | 7.0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB20 | RB24 | −4 | 9.0 |
| David Montgomery | RB21 | RB71 | −50 | 2.7 |
| Bucky Irving | RB22 | RB18 | +4 | 10.5 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB23 | RB69 | −46 | 3.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB12 | +12 | 11.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB25 | RB16 | +9 | 9.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 | RB8 | +19 | 11.6 |
| Tony Pollard | RB29 | RB15 | +14 | 9.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB30 | RB23 | +7 | 9.2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB32 | RB11 | +21 | 10.6 |
| Woody Marks | RB45 | RB20 | +25 | 8.5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB46 | RB21 | +25 | 9.5 |
| Braelon Allen | RB56 | RB22 | +34 | 9.2 |
Draft day vs. now: WR
Fantasy · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 10.
Biggest climb: Matthew Golden, WR51 on draft day, WR15 now.
Biggest fall: Davante Adams, WR23 on draft day, WR96 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | WR2 | −1 | 15.0 |
| Puka Nacua | WR2 | WR1 | +1 | 16.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR3 | WR4 | −1 | 15.8 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | WR3 | +1 | 14.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR5 | +0 | 15.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 | WR21 | −15 | 8.5 |
| Drake London | WR7 | WR9 | −2 | 12.7 |
| A.J. Brown | WR8 | WR65 | −57 | 5.3 |
| Nico Collins | WR9 | WR16 | −7 | 9.4 |
| George Pickens | WR10 | WR47 | −37 | 6.7 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 | WR7 | +4 | 11.7 |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | WR12 | +0 | 10.6 |
| Malik Nabers | WR13 | WR10 | +3 | 11.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR14 | WR44 | −30 | 7.0 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 | WR11 | +4 | 12.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR16 | WR23 | −7 | 9.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR17 | WR8 | +9 | 11.5 |
| Tee Higgins | WR18 | WR6 | +12 | 13.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR19 | WR59 | −40 | 5.7 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR49 | −29 | 5.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 | WR64 | −43 | 5.3 |
| Luther Burden | WR22 | WR20 | +2 | 9.7 |
| Davante Adams | WR23 | WR96 | −73 | 3.5 |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | WR42 | −18 | 6.3 |
| Jameson Williams | WR26 | WR13 | +13 | 10.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 | WR17 | +12 | 10.4 |
| Parker Washington | WR31 | WR14 | +17 | 10.0 |
| DK Metcalf | WR35 | WR18 | +17 | 9.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR39 | WR19 | +20 | 8.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR45 | WR22 | +23 | 8.4 |
| Matthew Golden | WR51 | WR15 | +36 | 10.9 |
| Jalen Coker | WR54 | WR24 | +30 | 8.2 |
Draft day vs. now: TE
Fantasy · Week 10 · Tue, Nov 10
Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 10.
Biggest climb: Pat Freiermuth, TE30 on draft day, TE15 now.
Biggest fall: Jake Ferguson, TE11 on draft day, TE37 now.
| Player | Draft day | Now | Move | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE1 | TE4 | −3 | 10.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE2 | TE2 | +0 | 11.9 |
| Colston Loveland | TE3 | TE5 | −2 | 9.9 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 | TE9 | −5 | 8.9 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE5 | TE10 | −5 | 8.6 |
| Harold Fannin | TE6 | TE11 | −5 | 8.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 | TE24 | −17 | 6.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE8 | TE7 | +1 | 8.3 |
| George Kittle | TE9 | TE1 | +8 | 11.7 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 | TE6 | +4 | 8.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE11 | TE37 | −26 | 5.1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE12 | TE3 | +9 | 10.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | TE20 | −7 | 6.4 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE14 | TE14 | +0 | 7.8 |
| Mark Andrews | TE15 | TE32 | −17 | 5.7 |
| Brenton Strange | TE16 | TE13 | +3 | 7.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE17 | TE26 | −9 | 5.9 |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE18 | TE30 | −12 | 5.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE19 | TE8 | +11 | 8.3 |
| Hunter Henry | TE20 | TE28 | −8 | 6.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE21 | TE18 | +3 | 6.6 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE23 | TE16 | +7 | 6.7 |
| AJ Barner | TE25 | TE12 | +13 | 7.9 |
| Cade Otton | TE28 | TE19 | +9 | 7.3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE30 | TE15 | +15 | 6.8 |