Week 3 charts

Each week Gridiron AI charts the NFL from its models and public data: playoff odds, its numbers against the betting line, where the betting money went, fantasy projections against what players scored, and more.

Playoff race

Standings · Fri, Oct 2

Playoff race, NFL Week 3 2026

The playoff race after Week 3, from 10,000 simulations of the season:

Climbing: SF 44% → 79%, MIN 50% → 80%, KC 52% → 80%
Falling: LAC 48% → 13%, HOU 60% → 33%

Biggest Week 3 swing: NE, down 20 points.

TeamConfRecordPlayoffsDivisionSince preseason
BUFAFC3-091%78%+20 pts
MINNFC3-080%46%+30 pts
SEANFC2-180%44%−1 pts
KCAFC3-080%54%+27 pts
SFNFC3-079%41%+35 pts
JAXAFC2-176%62%+10 pts
BALAFC2-173%42%+6 pts
CINAFC2-169%35%+24 pts
DETNFC2-167%32%−0 pts
DENAFC2-165%30%+10 pts
PHINFC2-163%54%+0 pts
LANFC1-252%14%−15 pts
NEAFC1-249%18%−19 pts
CHINFC2-149%15%+3 pts
PITAFC2-142%16%−5 pts
NONFC1-240%35%+3 pts
INDAFC1-234%19%−6 pts
LVAFC3-034%12%+17 pts
HOUAFC0-333%18%−28 pts
CARNFC1-232%28%+5 pts
DALNFC1-230%20%−9 pts
GBNFC1-228%7%−18 pts
ATLNFC1-224%20%−7 pts
NYGNFC2-124%17%+0 pts
CLEAFC2-121%6%−3 pts
TBNFC0-321%17%−19 pts
WASNFC1-217%9%−10 pts
NYJAFC1-215%4%+5 pts
ARINFC1-214%2%+3 pts
LACAFC0-313%4%−35 pts
TENAFC0-33%2%−9 pts
MIAAFC0-32%1%−15 pts

Model vs. Vegas

Betting · Thu, Sep 24

Model vs. Vegas, NFL Week 3 2026

Model vs. Vegas, Week 3: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.

Biggest gap: KC @ MIA. Market KC -10.5, our numbers KC -4.5.

Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.

GameKickoffLine (home)Ours (home)Gap
KC @ MIASUN 13:00+10.5+4.56.0
CIN @ PITSUN 13:00+3.5+0.43.1
LAR @ DENSUN 20:20+2.5PK2.5
PHI @ CHIMON 20:15+4.5+2.42.1
NYJ @ DETSUN 13:00-6.5-8.62.1
CAR @ CLESUN 13:00+3+1.21.8
ATL @ GBTHU 20:15-4.5-2.81.7
SEA @ WASSUN 13:00+7+5.51.5
MIN @ TBSUN 16:05+1.5+2.71.2
LAC @ BUFSUN 13:00-7-7.80.8
HOU @ INDSUN 13:00+2.5+1.70.8
LV @ NOSUN 16:25-3-3.80.8
TEN @ NYGSUN 13:00-3-3.80.8
BAL @ DALSUN 16:25+3.5+3.90.4
NE @ JAXSUN 13:00-3-2.80.2
ARI @ SFSUN 16:05-8.5-8.30.2

Where the money went

Betting · Sun, Sep 27

Where the money went, NFL Week 3 2026

Where the money went, Week 3: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.

Biggest move: TEN @ NYG, 3.5 pts toward TEN (NYG -6 to -2.5).

Moved against most bettors: KC @ MIA (85% on KC, line to MIA); MIN @ TB (60% on MIN, line to TB).

Market data, not picks.

GameOpen (home)Now (home)Bets on homeMoney on homeSignal
KC @ MIA+11.5+1015%35%Reverse
MIN @ TB+2.5+140%45%Reverse
ARI @ SF-8.5-7.585%77%Reverse
NE @ JAX-2.5-340%37%Reverse
LAR @ DEN+2.5+236%51%Reverse
CAR @ CLE+2.5+2.526%58%Split
CIN @ PIT+3.5+3.527%45%Split
TEN @ NYG-6-2.533%37%
SEA @ WAS+6.5+812%11%
HOU @ IND+2.5+1.552%61%
BAL @ DAL+3+3.549%40%
LV @ NO-3-3.549%52%
LAC @ BUF-7-775%69%
NYJ @ DET-6.5-6.572%80%
PHI @ CHI+3.5+3.525%22%

Trench watch

Trenches · Sat, Sep 26

Trench watch, NFL Week 3 2026

Trench watch, Week 3: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).

BUF rush (94) vs LAC protection (10)
PIT rush (87) vs CIN protection (23)
KC rush (81) vs MIA protection (32)
DEN rush (97) vs LAR protection (55)

DefensePass rush pctlOffenseProtection pctlGap
BUF94LAC10+84Rush wins
PIT87CIN23+65Rush wins
KC81MIA32+48Rush wins
DEN97LA55+42Rush wins
DET74NYJ42+32Rush wins
NO45LV19+26Rush wins
HOU55IND29+26
TEN39NYG16+23
NE65JAX45+19
TB29MIN13+16
JAX52NE35+16
NYJ13DET0+13
LAC84BUF74+10
DAL61BAL52+10
SF32ARI26+6
MIN100TB94+6
LV90NO90+0
CAR0CLE3−3
CLE58CAR71−13
LA68DEN84−16
WAS42SEA61−19
SEA77WAS97−19
NYG16TEN39−23
BAL48DAL81−32
CHI26PHI58−32
PHI23CHI77−55Line wins
IND6HOU68−61Line wins
MIA3KC65−61Line wins
CIN19PIT87−68Line wins
ARI10SF100−90Line wins

The receipts

Fantasy · Tue, Sep 29

The receipts, NFL Week 3 2026

The receipts, Week 3: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.

Average miss: 5.6 pts, 56% within 5.
Biggest boom: Jahmyr Gibbs, 18.3 projected, 41.4 scored.
Biggest miss: De'Von Achane, 13.8 projected, 1.7 scored (played 5% of snaps).

PlayerPosTeamProjectedScoredDiff
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET18.341.4+23.1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA16.535.4+18.8
George KittleTESF10.526.2+15.7
Brock BowersTELV12.027.6+15.6
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ13.026.7+13.7
Harold FanninTECLE11.124.1+13.0
Brock PurdyQBSF19.031.3+12.3
Jeremiyah LoveRBARI9.921.9+12.0
Michael WilsonWRARI14.125.9+11.8
Terry McLaurinWRWAS8.719.7+11.0
Luther BurdenWRCHI9.219.8+10.6
Davante AdamsWRLA10.420.7+10.3
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN15.124.8+9.7
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT11.620.6+9.0
Kyren WilliamsRBLA13.321.8+8.5
Bhayshul TutenRBJAX8.617.0+8.4
Tee HigginsWRCIN12.721.0+8.3
Bo NixQBDEN15.924.1+8.3
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN10.418.7+8.3
Tyler ShoughQBNO16.923.8+6.9
CeeDee LambWRDAL13.320.2+6.9
Joe BurrowQBCIN16.322.6+6.3
Deebo SamuelWRSF9.415.4+6.0
George PickensWRDAL9.415.2+5.8
James CookRBBUF13.719.4+5.7
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL12.718.3+5.6
Tyler WarrenTEIND9.614.7+5.1
D.J. MooreWRBUF8.412.7+4.3
Christian McCaffreyRBSF17.521.6+4.1
Lamar JacksonQBBAL16.720.4+3.7
Derrick HenryRBBAL18.421.9+3.5
Josh DownsWRIND9.412.7+3.3
Dak PrescottQBDAL15.718.9+3.2
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX16.719.8+3.1
Chuba HubbardRBCAR12.015.0+3.0
Emeka EgbukaWRTB8.411.2+2.8
Tony PollardRBTEN10.913.6+2.7
Chris OlaveWRNO17.119.7+2.6
Travis KelceTEKC11.513.9+2.4
Rashee RiceWRKC13.515.8+2.3
Mike EvansWRSF10.212.4+2.2
Aaron JonesRBMIN12.314.2+1.9
Trey McBrideTEARI14.616.5+1.9
Jared GoffQBDET17.519.4+1.9
Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC19.621.3+1.7
D.K. MetcalfWRPIT10.812.1+1.3
Zay FlowersWRBAL14.115.4+1.3
Cam SkatteboRBNYG12.913.0+0.1
DeVonta SmithWRPHI13.012.5−0.5
Tre TuckerWRLV8.98.3−0.6
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI9.79.0−0.7
Cade OttonTETB9.48.6−0.8
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN7.26.3−0.9
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE11.29.9−1.3
Romeo DoubsWRNE9.67.9−1.7
Quentin JohnstonWRLAC8.97.0−1.9
Stefon DiggsWRWAS9.47.3−2.1
Patrick MahomesQBKC18.115.9−2.1
Malik NabersWRNYG10.07.6−2.4
Jameson WilliamsWRDET11.48.9−2.5
Ashton JeantyRBLV14.912.3−2.6
Josh AllenQBBUF20.117.5−2.6
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI13.510.8−2.7
Jaylen WaddleWRDEN9.36.4−2.9
Parker WashingtonWRJAX15.913.0−2.9
Dontayvion WicksWRPHI8.35.2−3.1
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS8.45.3−3.1
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE10.06.8−3.2
Rashod BatemanWRBAL9.15.7−3.4
Bryce YoungQBCAR17.013.6−3.4
David MontgomeryRBHOU10.26.8−3.4
Jalen HurtsQBPHI16.112.6−3.5
Travis EtienneRBNO12.79.0−3.7
Colston LovelandTECHI10.97.1−3.8
Dalton SchultzTEHOU9.86.0−3.8
Chris GodwinWRTB9.75.5−4.2
Devaughn VeleWRNO11.36.9−4.4
Breece HallRBNYJ13.18.5−4.6
Ryan FlournoyWRDAL8.94.2−4.7
Sam LaPortaTEDET12.67.4−5.2
Bucky IrvingRBTB13.07.8−5.2
Jadarian PriceRBSEA6.91.2−5.7
Isaiah LikelyTENYG9.03.3−5.7
Jonathan TaylorRBIND15.39.2−6.1
Omarion HamptonRBLAC12.75.6−7.1
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET19.411.9−7.5
Chase BrownRBCIN16.58.9−7.6
Dalton KincaidTEBUF11.73.8−7.9
Justin JeffersonWRMIN13.25.2−8.0
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR11.83.7−8.1
Jalen CokerWRCAR13.13.8−9.3
Khalil ShakirWRBUF10.91.6−9.3
De'Von AchaneRBMIA13.81.7−12.1

Draft day vs. now: QB

Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24

Draft day vs. now: QB, NFL Week 3 2026

Where quarterbacks went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.

Biggest climb: Bryce Young, QB25 on draft day, QB8 now.

Biggest fall: Jaxson Dart, QB11 on draft day, QB85 now.

PlayerDraft dayNowMovePts/game
Josh AllenQB1QB1+016.6
Lamar JacksonQB2QB4−213.7
Joe BurrowQB3QB12−912.5
Drake MayeQB4QB16−1211.9
Jayden DanielsQB5QB25−209.5
Jalen HurtsQB6QB6+013.3
Caleb WilliamsQB7QB7+012.9
Dak PrescottQB8QB10−212.8
Justin HerbertQB9QB11−212.7
Trevor LawrenceQB10QB5+513.7
Jaxson DartQB11QB85−740.0
Matthew StaffordQB12QB15−312.0
Patrick MahomesQB13QB3+1014.3
Brock PurdyQB14QB2+1215.1
Bo NixQB15QB9+612.8
Jared GoffQB16QB13+312.3
Baker MayfieldQB17QB17+011.3
Kyler MurrayQB18QB36−185.7
Jordan LoveQB19QB20−110.6
Tyler ShoughQB20QB14+612.1
C.J. StroudQB22QB19+310.8
Daniel JonesQB23QB18+511.0
Bryce YoungQB25QB8+1712.8

Draft day vs. now: RB

Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24

Draft day vs. now: RB, NFL Week 3 2026

Where running backs went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.

Biggest climb: Aaron Jones, RB41 on draft day, RB19 now.

Biggest fall: Saquon Barkley, RB10 on draft day, RB31 now.

PlayerDraft dayNowMovePts/game
Jahmyr GibbsRB1RB1+017.8
Bijan RobinsonRB2RB2+016.6
Christian McCaffreyRB3RB5−214.3
Jonathan TaylorRB4RB11−711.9
James CookRB5RB17−1211.1
Ashton JeantyRB6RB3+314.5
Devon AchaneRB7RB7+013.6
Chase BrownRB8RB8+012.7
Omarion HamptonRB9RB14−511.3
Saquon BarkleyRB10RB31−217.7
Kenneth WalkerRB11RB6+513.9
Derrick HenryRB12RB4+814.4
Jeremiyah LoveRB13RB24−118.8
Kyren WilliamsRB14RB13+111.3
Javonte WilliamsRB15RB10+512.4
Breece HallRB16RB15+111.2
Travis EtienneRB18RB18+010.8
Cam SkatteboRB19RB9+1012.5
Quinshon JudkinsRB20RB21−19.2
David MontgomeryRB21RB38−176.7
Bucky IrvingRB22RB16+611.2
TreVeyon HendersonRB23RB27−48.7
D'Andre SwiftRB24RB12+1211.8
Jaylen WarrenRB27RB20+79.5
Tony PollardRB29RB22+79.1
Aaron JonesRB41RB19+229.6
Woody MarksRB45RB23+229.0

Draft day vs. now: WR

Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24

Draft day vs. now: WR, NFL Week 3 2026

Where wide receivers went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.

Biggest climb: Jalen Coker, WR54 on draft day, WR17 now.

Biggest fall: A.J. Brown, WR8 on draft day, WR61 now.

PlayerDraft dayNowMovePts/game
Ja'Marr ChaseWR1WR4−314.5
Puka NacuaWR2WR3−114.7
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR3WR2+115.6
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR4WR1+317.3
CeeDee LambWR5WR9−411.0
Justin JeffersonWR6WR7−112.2
Drake LondonWR7WR12−510.4
A.J. BrownWR8WR61−535.5
Nico CollinsWR9WR23−149.5
George PickensWR10WR19−99.7
Chris OlaveWR11WR5+613.3
Rashee RiceWR12WR8+411.0
Malik NabersWR13WR30−178.2
DeVonta SmithWR14WR11+310.7
Zay FlowersWR15WR10+510.9
Emeka EgbukaWR16WR26−108.4
Tetairoa McMillanWR17WR18−19.9
Tee HigginsWR18WR16+210.1
Garrett WilsonWR19WR14+510.2
Ladd McConkeyWR20WR34−147.8
Jaylen WaddleWR21WR28−78.2
Luther BurdenWR22WR29−78.2
Davante AdamsWR23WR22+19.5
D.J. MooreWR24WR56−325.9
Jameson WilliamsWR26WR13+1310.4
Christian WatsonWR29WR20+99.6
Parker WashingtonWR31WR6+2512.6
DK MetcalfWR35WR24+118.8
Michael WilsonWR36WR21+159.6
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR39WR15+2410.1
Jalen CokerWR54WR17+3710.1

Draft day vs. now: TE

Fantasy · Thu, Sep 24

Draft day vs. now: TE, NFL Week 3 2026

Where tight ends went in August drafts (Fantasy Nerds ADP) vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 3.

Biggest climb: Pat Freiermuth, TE30 on draft day, TE12 now.

Biggest fall: Oronde Gadsden, TE18 on draft day, TE37 now.

PlayerDraft dayNowMovePts/game
Brock BowersTE1TE10−98.7
Trey McBrideTE2TE1+112.2
Colston LovelandTE3TE2+110.4
Tyler WarrenTE4TE7−39.1
Tucker KraftTE5TE5+09.4
Harold FanninTE6TE20−147.2
Kyle PittsTE7TE8−18.9
Sam LaPortaTE8TE9−18.8
George KittleTE9TE4+59.6
Travis KelceTE10TE3+79.7
Jake FergusonTE11TE28−176.3
Isaiah LikelyTE12TE19−77.3
Dalton KincaidTE13TE6+79.3
Dallas GoedertTE14TE14+08.1
Mark AndrewsTE15TE16−17.7
Brenton StrangeTE16TE18−27.3
Juwan JohnsonTE17TE30−136.1
Oronde GadsdenTE18TE37−194.7
Chigoziem OkonkwoTE19TE29−106.2
Hunter HenryTE20TE17+37.3
T.J. HockensonTE21TE15+67.8
Dalton SchultzTE23TE13+108.2
Cade OttonTE28TE11+178.4
Pat FreiermuthTE30TE12+188.2