Week 3 Fantasy Rankings: The Model’s Top Plays by Position

Week 3 is here, and here's where the model landed. Every number below is projected PPR points in standard scoring, with a floor and a ceiling so you can see how safe (or how shaky) each guy really is. Recent form — the three-game average and last game — is already baked into the projection, so when a guy's projection sits way below what he's been putting up, that's the model telling you it expects some cooling off. Use the floor-to-ceiling spread as your risk gauge before you lock anything in.

Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen (BUF, vs LAC) — He's averaging 38.2 over his last three and just dropped 40.8, so a 20.1 projection almost feels like an insult. The 8.0 to 32.7 range is wide, sure, but there's a reason he's QB1 against the Chargers.
• Brock Purdy (SF, vs ARI) — Coming off a 28.5 blowup and projected for 18.8 against Arizona. The 6.6 floor to 31.3 ceiling tells you there's real week-to-week swing here, so buckle up.
• Patrick Mahomes (KC, at MIA) — Two straight games right around 29 points back up the 17.8 projection. That 6.2 floor is the reminder, though — this offense can still go quiet on the road in Miami.
• Jared Goff (DET, vs NYJ) — His 8.6 floor is the best of any quarterback here, which is exactly what you want paired with a 17.5 projection. He's also coming off a 29.8 outing, and now he gets the Jets.
• Tyler Shough (NO, vs LVR) — Back-to-back 22.4 games that line up exactly with his season average. With a 16.9 projection and a 27.7 ceiling against Las Vegas, he's a pretty comfortable streamer.
• Bryce Young (CAR, at CLE) — Consistency is the whole story: his 24.1 last game matched his three-game average on the nose. The 16.6 projection at Cleveland still leaves room to run up to 28.6.

Running Backs

• Kenneth Walker III (KC, at MIA) — Highest ceiling of any back on this list at 36.9. Add a 25.1 three-game average behind the 19.0 projection and he's an easy RB1 start at Miami.
• Derrick Henry (BAL, at DAL) — Projected for 17.8 with a 36.7 ceiling, because the touchdown upside is always live with Henry. The catch is a 5.0 floor on the road in Dallas if the scores don't come.
• Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, vs NYJ) — His 25.7 three-game average edges out Walker's, and a 17.8 projection with a 34.5 ceiling against the Jets makes him about as confident a start as you'll find.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF, vs ARI) — His 22.6 last game was well above his 16.0 three-game average, and the 17.1 projection with a 31.3 ceiling says the model thinks he's trending back up against Arizona.
• Bijan Robinson (ATL, at GB) — Projected for 16.9 with one of the widest ranges on the board, 4.7 to 35.9. He's coming off a quieter 11.1, but the upside at Green Bay is still very much there.
• Chase Brown (CIN, at PIT) — The 16.0 projection is steady enough, but an 11.2 last game and a 4.7 floor are the downside you're signing up for on the road in Pittsburgh.

Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, vs NYJ) — Best floor of any receiver here at 10.2. After a 35.2 last game and a 29.6 three-game average, honestly, the 19.1 projection against the Jets looks conservative.
• Chris Olave (NO, vs LVR) — He's questionable this week, so watch the reports. If he plays, the 25.4 three-game average and 22.6 last game back up a 16.7 projection against Las Vegas.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, at WAS) — A ridiculous 42.5 last game pulled his average up to 27.7. The model's more measured at 16.3 in Washington, but that 30.0 ceiling is the kind of week that wins you a matchup.
• Parker Washington (JAX, vs NE) — Quietly steady: 18.6 over his last three and 16.8 last game. A 15.7 projection against New England keeps him firmly in the flex conversation.
• Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, at PIT) — The 26.5 last game shows you what's possible behind a 14.9 projection, with a 26.7 ceiling on the road in Pittsburgh.
• Christian Watson (GB, vs ATL) — His 23.4 three-game average cooled off to 14.1 last time out. The 14.4 projection comes with a 5.8 floor, the lowest of the receivers here, so he's the riskiest start in this group against Atlanta.

Tight Ends

• Trey McBride (ARI, at SF) — Highest ceiling at the position on this list at 25.6, and an 18.7 three-game average backs up the 14.3 projection in San Francisco.
• Sam LaPorta (DET, vs NYJ) — A 17.2 last game and a 13.5 average support the 12.3 projection against the Jets. Plug him in and don't overthink it.
• Dalton Kincaid (BUF, vs LAC) — His 22.5 last game was well above his 16.1 three-game average. The model's at 11.5 against the Chargers, but there's still a 20.4 ceiling on the table.
• Tucker Kraft (GB, vs ATL) — He's been ice cold: a 6.5 three-game average and just 3.5 last game. That makes the 11.4 projection against Atlanta more hope than trend right now.
• Travis Kelce (KC, at MIA) — The 25.1 last game was a big jump from his 13.1 average, and the 11.3 projection at Miami feels a little cautious after that kind of flash.
• Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, vs CAR) — A 10.4 last game nudged his average up to 7.2, and the 10.8 projection against Carolina puts him in streaming territory, not must-start.

Rest of season: risers and fallers

Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.

Risers

• Josh Downs (WR, IND) — WR53 to WR30, with his per-game rate climbing from 6.3 to 8.1. He's turning into a nice stash for the stretch run.
• Jared Goff (QB, DET) — QB19 to QB11, rate up from 11.2 to 12.6. Worth holding as a QB2 or streaming option the rest of the way.
• Geno Smith (QB, NYJ) — QB30 to QB26 and a bump from 7.8 to 9.2 per game. That's a deep-league hold, not a priority add.
• Cam Ward (QB, TEN) — QB29 to QB24 with his rate up to 9.9 from 8.5. If you play two-QB or superflex, he's worth a stash.
• Devaughn Vele (WR, NO) — WR45 to WR29, per-game output going from 6.8 to 8.1. Sneaky add if you need receiver depth down the stretch.

Fallers

• Puka Nacua (WR, LA) — He's out this week with a hip issue, and that's most of why he slides from WR2 to WR7 with his rate falling from 15.6 to 11.3. Hold if you can, just don't expect the elite pace right away.
• Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) — Questionable this week with a shoulder issue. The slide from RB14 to RB27 and the drop from 12.0 to 8.5 per game is a real red flag — might be worth poking around the trade market.
• Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) — Doubtful this week with an elbow issue. Falling from QB21 to QB29 with his rate going from 11.0 to 7.5 makes him a bench-and-monitor guy for now.
• Malik Nabers (WR, NYG) — WR22 to WR56, with his rate collapsing from 9.3 to 5.9. If you were counting on a second-half turnaround, the model isn't seeing it.
• Nico Collins (WR, HOU) — Out this week with a hamstring issue. The drop from WR12 to WR31 and from 11.1 to 7.7 per game means you should plan on replacing his production for a bit.

Same deal as always: these are projections, not locks. Check inactives before kickoff and go with your gut on the close calls.