Week 8 rankings are up. Same deal as always: projections are standard PPR, and the floor/ceiling columns are the realistic bust-to-boom window for each guy. The projection is what we expect, but when you're stuck on a close start/sit call, those ranges are where the real answer usually lives.
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (BUF, vs BAL) — Top projection at the position (18.7) and the top ceiling too (29.8). The 6.2 floor isn't pretty, but he's been cooking at 24.4 a game over his last three, so I'm not losing sleep over it.
- Joe Burrow (CIN, vs TEN) — He put up 28.9 last time out and he's averaging 26.7 over his last three. Honestly, the 18.2 projection against TEN feels a little conservative with a 29.1 ceiling sitting right there.
- Drake Maye (NE, at MIA) — A 30.2 three-game average is a monster number. The model's more measured at 17.0 projected, but a 25.5 ceiling at MIA still makes him a guy who can swing your week.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX, vs IND) — He's been steady, averaging 24.5 over his last three, which backs up the 16.8 projection. The 25.9 ceiling against IND is real QB1 upside.
- Jared Goff (DET, vs MIN) — Projected for 16.6 with a 24.7 ceiling, and his 7.7 floor is the best of any QB on this list. He went for 18.1 last time out. Not the flashiest pick here, but the safest.
- Dak Prescott (DAL, vs ARI) — 16.4 projected with a 24.6 ceiling looks fine on paper. The problem is the 11.8 three-game average. The results just haven't been there lately, so I'd temper expectations.
Running Backs
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, vs MIN) — 19.7 projected with a ridiculous 38.9 ceiling, the highest on the whole board. Clear RB1. Even his "quiet" game last week was 17.3, and he's averaging 27.5 over his last three.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, at DEN) — Projected for 17.9 with a 32.5 ceiling. Last game was a dud at 9.7, but believe it or not his 5.7 floor is the best of this RB group. That says more about how volatile running backs are than anything about Walker.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, at TB) — The 16.6 projection is fine, but the 32.1 ceiling is the reason you start him. He bounced back with 17.2 last game, which pulls his three-game average up to 13.7.
- James Cook (BUF, vs BAL) — 16.2 projected, and a strong 23.6 three-game average to back it up. Easy start against BAL, with a 31.8 ceiling if things break right.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, at JAX) — Projected at 15.8 with a 31.8 ceiling. He's coming off a 19.0 game and is averaging 17.1 over his last three heading to JAX. Steady RB1/RB2 stuff.
- Javonte Williams (DAL, vs ARI) — The 15.2 projection hides one of the widest ranges on the board: a 2.1 floor (lowest on this list) up to a 32.0 ceiling. Know what you're signing up for against ARI.
Wide Receivers
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs CHI) — Tops among receivers in projection (19.9) and ceiling (34.2). He dropped 31.3 last game and is averaging 26.5 over three. Easiest start on the board.
- Puka Nacua (LA, vs LAC) — 17.7 projected, 29.5 ceiling, and a strong 24.5 three-game average. The catch: he's questionable, so keep an eye on his status before you lock him in.
- Zay Flowers (BAL, at BUF) — His 10.0 floor is the best of this WR group (and the best on the whole board), and he's coming off a 27.7 game. 17.6 projected at BUF is a pretty comfortable spot.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL, vs ARI) — The 16.9 projection and 31.7 ceiling tell you the talent's still there. The 9.4 three-game average is what's keeping him out of auto-start territory right now.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, vs MIN) — 16.6 projected, 29.9 ceiling, and 24.3 last game. All good, except he's questionable, so that 18.6 three-game average comes with a little risk attached. Check the injury report.
- Tee Higgins (CIN, vs TEN) — He projects for 14.9, but between the 26.8 last game and the 28.3 ceiling, there's more spike-week potential here than WR6 suggests.
Tight Ends
- Trey McBride (ARI, at DAL) — Clear top option at 15.3 projected with a 26.7 ceiling. A 27.1 last game on top of a 20.3 three-game average makes him that rare tight end you just set and forget.
- Brock Bowers (LVR, at NYJ) — Projected for 13.8 with a 24.1 ceiling. He put up 13.3 last game. Great start, just a tier below McBride for now.
- Sam LaPorta (DET, vs MIN) — 11.2 projected with a 19.4 ceiling looks fine. That 2.8 last game is tough to ignore, though his 11.3 three-game average says it was more blip than trend.
- Tucker Kraft (GB, vs CAR) — 10.5 projected, 14.8 last game, 11.7 over three. A solid streaming option against CAR if you need one.
- Colston Loveland (CHI, at SEA) — Projected at 10.3, but a 19.9 last game and a 14.1 three-game average say his role is growing heading to SEA.
- Travis Kelce (KC, at DEN) — 9.9 projected with an 8.9 three-game average and 8.4 last game. His 17.4 ceiling is tied for the lowest in this group, so this version of Kelce is a TE1 by name more than by upside right now.
Rest of season: risers and fallers
Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.
Risers
- Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) — Jumping from RB92 to RB19 with ppg climbing from 2.0 to 10.7 over 107 points across 10 games, if he's somehow still on waivers in your league, go get him.
- Brock Purdy (QB, SF) — Moving from QB22 all the way to QB2 with ppg going from 8.8 to 14.3 and 143 points projected over 10 games, he's now a buy even in one-QB leagues if you can get him.
- Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE) — The jump from RB40 to RB20 with ppg rising from 5.8 to 10.2 and 102 points over 10 games makes him a solid stash with real weekly upside.
- Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) — A climb from QB34 to QB23 with ppg up from 6.2 to 9.8 across 99 points over 10 games is a nice streaming signal for the back half of the year.
- Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) — Rising from QB25 to QB9 with ppg jumping from 8.0 to 10.6 and 116 points over 11 games, he's back on the QB1 radar down the stretch.
Fallers
| Player |
Team |
ROS rank |
Pts/game |
ROS pts |
Games left |
| Davante Adams |
LA |
WR17 → WR76 (▼59) |
10.8 → 4.2 |
42 |
10 |
| DeVonta Smith |
PHI |
WR14 → WR42 (▼28) |
11.1 → 6.9 |
69 |
10 |
| Emeka Egbuka |
TB |
WR29 → WR47 (▼18) |
9.2 → 6.3 |
63 |
10 |
| Dak Prescott |
DAL |
QB8 → QB24 (▼16) |
11.6 → 9.3 |
93 |
10 |
| Aaron Jones |
MIN |
RB15 → RB25 (▼10) |
10.1 → 7.9 |
87 |
11 |
- Davante Adams (WR, LA) — He's on injured reserve with a hamstring and expected back around Week 12, which explains the fall from WR17 to WR76 and ppg dropping from 10.8 to 4.2 over just 42 points across 10 games — stash if you have the bench space, but he's unrosterable in shallow leagues right now.
- DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) — Out this week with a hamstring issue, his ROS outlook slides from WR14 to WR42 with ppg down from 11.1 to 6.9 and 69 points over 10 games, so it's a short-term bench and monitor.
- Emeka Egbuka (WR, TB) — Out this week with a concussion, he drops from WR29 to WR47 with ppg falling from 9.2 to 6.3 across 63 points over 10 games — hold but don't force the start.
- Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) — Sliding from QB8 to QB24 with ppg down from 11.6 to 9.3 over 93 points across 10 games, this lines up with the rough 11.8 three-game average and makes him a sell if anyone in your league still pays for the name.
- Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) — Questionable this week with a knee issue, he falls from RB15 to RB25 with ppg dropping from 10.1 to 7.9 over 87 points across 11 games — hold for now but check the injury report before you trust the start.
As always, these are model projections, not locks. Check inactives before kickoff and trust your gut on the close calls.