Week 7 Fantasy Rankings: The Model’s Top Plays by Position

Week 7 projections are in. Everything below is the model's projected PPR points in standard scoring, plus a floor and a ceiling for each guy so you can see the range, not just the midpoint. Think of the floor as the week where nothing goes right and the ceiling as the week that wins you your matchup.

Quarterbacks

• Joe Burrow (CIN, at BAL) — Tied for the top spot at 17.2, and the 28.1 ceiling is the biggest on the QB board. He's been on fire lately too, at a 24.2 three-game average, so I'm not worried about the trip to Baltimore.
• Caleb Williams (CHI, vs NE) — Same 17.2 projection as Burrow, but he's listed Questionable and his 6.5 floor is the lowest in this group. He's been steady at 16.5 in both his last game and his three-game average. Just keep an eye on the injury report before you lock him in.
• Jordan Love (GB, at DET) — 17.1 projected with a 25.4 ceiling, coming off a 20.2 game. Looks like he's finding his rhythm, and that makes the road trip to Detroit a lot less scary than it sounds.
• Jared Goff (DET, vs GB) — The 16.8 projection looks low next to the 24.7 he's averaged over his last three. At home against Green Bay, he's got a real shot to clear it.
• Matthew Stafford (LA, at LVR) — 16.8 projected, and his 8.0 floor is the best in this group. He's the low-drama pick if you just want a QB who won't sink you in Vegas.
• Bryce Young (CAR, vs TB) — 16.7 projected after a 19.8 last game and a 20.7 three-game average. Quietly, he's been one of the more reliable streamers around, and now he gets Tampa Bay at home.

Running Backs

• Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, vs GB) — RB1 at 20.1, with the highest ceiling of the bunch at 36.1. He's averaged a ridiculous 27.7 over his last three, and now he gets Green Bay. Don't overthink it.
• Kenneth Walker III (KC, at SEA) — 18.5 projected with a 35.0 ceiling and a scorching 29.4 three-game average. Start him. Just know the 4.9 floor means a dud in Seattle isn't off the table.
• Bijan Robinson (ATL, vs SF) — 16.2 projected after a forgettable 8.1 last week. The 30.0 ceiling keeps him in your lineup against San Francisco, no question.
• Kyren Williams (LA, at LVR) — 15.2 projected, but his 2.9 floor is the lowest in this group and he's coming off a quiet 9.7. Starting him means you're betting on the 29.6 ceiling showing up in Vegas.
• Chuba Hubbard (CAR, vs TB) — 15.1 projected with a 22.5 three-game average and 19.1 last time out. The workload looks locked in heading into the Tampa Bay game.
• Aaron Jones (MIN, vs IND) — 14.6 projected with a healthy 17.8 three-game average. His 27.9 ceiling is the lowest of these six, so he's more of a steady RB2 against Indianapolis than a guy who wins your week.

Wide Receivers

• Puka Nacua (LA, at LVR) — WR1 at 18.4, and he has both the highest floor (9.2) and the highest ceiling (31.6) in the group. He's the safest receiver on the board and the most explosive one. Don't sweat the quieter 14.0 last week.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs KC) — 18.0 projected with a 30.1 ceiling, coming off a monster 25.4. He's one of the hottest plays of the week, Chiefs or not.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, vs GB) — 16.8 projected with a big 30.3 ceiling. His 14.2 three-game average has been cooler than usual, so call the Packers game a bounce-back spot rather than a sure thing.
• Zay Flowers (BAL, vs CIN) — 16.2 projected with a 17.7 three-game average, and his 8.3 floor ranks third here. He's a dependable start against Cincinnati even after a 12.7 last game.
• CeeDee Lamb (DAL, at PHI) — 15.1 projected with a 28.2 ceiling and a 16.0 last game. His 6.6 floor is the lowest in this group, but the upside makes him worth the risk in Philly.
• Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, at BAL) — 15.0 projected with a 7.0 floor and the lowest ceiling of these six at 26.1. He's cooled off to a 12.7 three-game average, so this is more of a grind against Baltimore than the name suggests.

Tight Ends

• Brock Bowers (LVR, vs LA) — TE1 at 14.3, with the position's highest ceiling at 25.6 and an 18.2 three-game average. Last week's 11.0 doesn't change a thing.
• Isaiah Likely (NYG, at HOU) — The 13.2 projection doesn't really capture how hot he's been: a 22.6 three-game average and 21.9 last game. His 6.0 floor is second-best among these tight ends, too. Sneaky good play in Houston.
• Sam LaPorta (DET, vs GB) — 13.1 projected with a 21.1 three-game average. The 22.8 ceiling isn't the biggest at the position, but the recent production makes him a solid start against Green Bay.
• Trey McBride (ARI, vs DEN) — 13.0 projected, with a 14.7 three-game average and 12.3 last game. Nothing flashy, just a steady weekly option against Denver.
• Dallas Goedert (PHI, vs DAL) — 10.7 projected after a 12.1 last game. There's some upside against Dallas, but an 18.7 ceiling puts a lid on how big his week can get.
• George Kittle (SF, at ATL) — 9.5 projected with the lowest floor here at 3.0, but he also just put up 17.9. Classic boom-or-bust in Atlanta.

Rest of season: risers and fallers

Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.

Risers

• Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) — Up from QB22 to QB2 rest-of-season, with his points per game climbing from 9.3 to 13.4. That's 147 projected points over 11 games. If he's somehow still on your waiver wire, go get him.
• A.J. Brown (WR, NE) — With Romeo Doubs on injured reserve and expected back around Week 12, Brown jumps from WR52 to WR26 and from 5.9 to 9.2 points per game. He's worth a speculative add for the next several weeks.
• Jalen Coker (WR, CAR) — WR36 to WR18, with points per game going from 6.6 to 9.8, good for 117 points over 12 games. Try to get him before the rest of your league notices.
• DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) — WR28 to WR14 rest-of-season, up to 11.1 points per game from 8.3. He's trending toward a solid weekly starter, so hold him or buy with confidence.
• Keenan Allen (WR, IND) — WR43 to WR31, with points per game ticking up from 6.6 to 8.6. More of a depth stash than a must-add, but keep an eye on him.

Fallers

• Brock Purdy (QB, SF) — Down from QB2 to QB22, with points per game falling from 14.0 to 8.8. If you've got another QB you trust, now's the time to sell.
• Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE) — He's out this week with an ankle injury, and the slide from RB18 to RB40 (down to 5.8 points per game) says the model doesn't see this as a one-week thing. Hold with caution at best.
• Jeremiyah Love (RB, ARI) — Also out this week with an ankle injury. His outlook drops from RB24 to RB48, with points per game falling from 8.3 to 5.0. Treat him as a bench stash, not a starter.
• Rashee Rice (WR, KC) — Out this week with a hamstring injury, and he falls from WR15 to WR36 rest-of-season (10.1 to 7.0 points per game). He's a tough hold until we know more.
• Tyler Warren (TE, IND) — Out this week with a groin injury, he drops from TE5 to TE25, with points per game going from 9.2 to 6.5. Plan on streaming tight end for a while.

As always, these are projections, not locks. Check inactives before kickoff and go with your gut on the close calls.