Week 5 Fantasy Rankings: The Model’s Top Plays by Position

Week 5 rankings are built off our projection model, which spits out expected PPR points along with a realistic floor and ceiling for each guy — that range is doing a lot of the storytelling this week. Matchups are baked in, so when you see a tight spread or a wide one, that's the model telling you how much confidence it has, not just a guess. Let's get into it.

Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen (BUF, at LA) — The 18.3 projection and 30.5 ceiling are both the best of the group, and with a 25.6 three-game average he's clearly rounding into form even on the road at LA.
• Jared Goff (DET, at ARI) — A 17.9 projection with a 7.5 to 25.1 range is the tightest band of the group, and that 7.5 floor is the best one here too. Not flashy, just hard to mess up at ARI.
• Dak Prescott (DAL, vs TB) — A 22.3 three-game average feeds a 17.4 projection against TB. The 6.7 floor says a dud is possible, but the 25.9 ceiling is plenty to start him on.
• Joe Burrow (CIN, at MIA) — The 23.7 last game and 27.9 ceiling show real upside on the road against MIA, though the 7.2 floor is a reminder this is still boom-or-bust week to week.
• Jacoby Brissett (ARI, vs DET) — He's got the widest range in this group, with a 30.4 ceiling that's right there with Allen's. The catch is a 14.2 average and a 10.4 last game, so you're betting on the shootout with DET.
• Trevor Lawrence (JAX, vs PHI) — The 16.3 projection against PHI comes with real spread — a 5.9 floor up to 27.9 ceiling — and his 13.0 three-game average suggests he's more streamer than lock right now.

Running Backs

• Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, at ARI) — He tops the position at 19.8 projected points behind a scorching 27.5 three-game average. The 5.9 floor is the best of this group too, and a 37.3 ceiling makes him a smash play at ARI.
• Bijan Robinson (ATL, vs BAL) — The 39.5 ceiling is the highest in this group, and he's coming off a 27.7 last game. Against BAL the 4.3 floor keeps things spicy, but that's the kind of upside that wins weeks.
• Kyren Williams (LA, vs BUF) — A 36.7 last game fuels an 18.0 projection, and while the 5.4 floor shows some risk, the 33.4 ceiling against BUF makes him a strong RB1 play.
• Derrick Henry (BAL, at ATL) — His 17.5 projection is backed by an 18.5 three-game average, and the 35.3 ceiling at ATL shows he's still capable of a huge workload-driven week.
• Chase Brown (CIN, at MIA) — The 3.8 floor is the lowest among this group, but a 19.1 last game and 31.2 ceiling show the spike weeks are very real against MIA.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF, at SEA) — A 15.3 projection with a 20.1 three-game average is solid, though the 4.1 floor at SEA means there's real bust risk if the game script turns.

Wide Receivers

• Puka Nacua (LA, vs BUF) — He leads all receivers with an 18.9 projection, the highest floor in the group at 8.7, and the highest ceiling at 32.8 — as safe-and-explosive as it gets against BUF.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs SF) — A gaudy 30.2 three-game average underpins his 18.0 projection, though the 12.6 last game is a reminder the floor (8.5) still matters some weeks.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, at ARI) — Consistency is the calling card here, with a 17.2 projection, 8.2 floor, and 30.5 ceiling giving him one of the safer floor-ceiling combos at ARI.
• Zay Flowers (BAL, at ATL) — He's carrying a questionable tag into this one, but a 25.8 last game and 17.0 projection show the role hasn't dipped, with a 29.5 ceiling still very much in play at ATL.
• CeeDee Lamb (DAL, vs TB) — Coming off a monster 41.9 performance, his 16.2 projection almost looks conservative, and a 31.8 three-game average says he's fully back to elite form against TB.
• Chris Olave (NO, vs MIN) — A steady 20.6 three-game average supports his 15.7 projection, with a 7.5 floor and 27.3 ceiling making him a reliable WR2 versus MIN.

Tight Ends

• Trey McBride (ARI, vs DET) — He checks in with the top projection at 14.4 and the highest ceiling at 25.3, even though a 10.1 last game shows some week-to-week bumpiness at the position.
• Brock Bowers (LVR, at NE) — A 24.1 three-game average is excellent, and his 13.7 projection with a 25.1 ceiling makes him a strong TE1 play at NE.
• George Kittle (SF, at SEA) — The 20.4 three-game average and 17.0 last game back up a 12.2 projection, with a 21.7 ceiling giving him solid upside at SEA.
• Sam LaPorta (DET, at ARI) — A 22.4 last game fuels optimism for his 12.1 projection, and the 21.3 ceiling shows real spike potential against ARI.
• Tucker Kraft (GB, vs CHI) — After a 16.5 last game, his 11.0 projection against CHI looks fair, though the 8.9 three-game average suggests some inconsistency.
• Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, at NYJ) — His 15.4 three-game average outpaces the 11.0 projection, and a 19.4 ceiling gives him sneaky upside at NYJ.

Rest of season: risers and fallers

Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.

Risers

• Puka Nacua (WR, LA) — Jumping from WR8 to WR3 with ppg climbing to 15.0, he's firmly in buy-and-hold territory if you've got him — this is as strong a rest-of-season outlook as it gets.
• Nico Collins (WR, HOU) — A move from WR42 to WR16 with ppg jumping to 10.0 makes him a clear buy-low target before the rest of the league catches on.
• Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) — Climbing from QB21 to QB8 with ppg up to 12.2, he's back in weekly-starter range, so if someone in your league got impatient, go check.
• Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) — Moving from RB17 to RB12 with ppg up to 11.8, he's a solid flex piece worth having on your roster.
• Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) — The jump from WR14 to WR6 with ppg rising to 12.0 makes him one of the more aggressive buy targets on the wire this week.

Fallers

• Travis Etienne (RB, NO) — He's on injured reserve with a hamstring issue and expected back around Week 9, and the fall from RB16 to RB61 with ppg cratering to 3.6 means he's a stash-only play for deep benches until he's actually back.
• Tyler Shough (QB, NO) — Sliding from QB10 to QB24 with ppg dropping to 8.0, he's a sell or bench candidate if you were leaning on him as a streamer.
• Breece Hall (RB, NYJ) — He's out this week with a quad issue, and the drop from RB15 to RB31 with ppg down to 6.6 suggests managers should hold but temper expectations rather than count on him as a weekly starter right now.
• Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) — He's out this week with a thumb injury and expected back around Week 7, and the fall from QB20 to QB32 with ppg down to 6.5 means he's a stash-and-wait, not a drop.
• Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC) — Listed questionable this week with a foot issue, his drop from WR28 to WR62 with ppg down to 5.6 is a red flag worth downgrading him for lineup purposes this week.

As always, these are model projections, not locks — check inactives before kickoff and trust your gut on the close calls.