Week 9 is here. Same deal as always: these are projected PPR points in our standard scoring, and the floor/ceiling tells you how much the model thinks each guy's week can swing. Don't just read the projection — read the spread. Tight gap means you know what you're getting; wide gap means you're buying a lottery ticket with a decent payout. Let's go.
Quarterbacks
- Joe Burrow (CIN, at ATL) — The 19.4 projection honestly feels tame for what he's doing. He's averaging 34.2 over his last three, including 39.5 last time out, and the 9.3 to 29.4 range leaves plenty of room for another big night in Atlanta.
- Brock Purdy (SF, vs LVR) — The model has him at 19.0, way ahead of his 14.7 three-game average. That's either the Raiders matchup doing the heavy lifting or the model betting on some positive regression, and the 7.6 to 29.3 range says it isn't totally sure which.
- Dak Prescott (DAL, at IND) — The 18.3 projection lines up nicely with what he's actually been doing: a 17.4 three-game average and 19.8 last time out. The range is wide (8.0 to 29.4), but that 29.4 ceiling is tied for the best on the QB board if the Indy game turns into a shootout.
- Jared Goff (DET, at MIA) — Projected for 18.1 coming off a 9.0 dud and a so-so 13.6 three-game average. The model clearly likes the Miami spot, but you're taking a bit of a leap of faith here.
- Josh Allen (BUF, at MIN) — The 17.7 projection is actually below what he's been putting up lately — 22.4 over his last three and 26.6 in his most recent game. I'm not overthinking this one in Minnesota, and the 28.1 ceiling is right there.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, vs NYJ) — Projected 17.6 with a 27.7 ceiling. His 14.0 three-game average has been quiet by his standards, but the 25.4 last game hints he's heating back up just in time for the Jets.
Running Backs
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, at MIA) — Your RB1 at 21.2 projected, and his 6.6 to 38.9 range is the widest of any back here. The recent form backs it up: 21.1 over his last three and 24.8 in his most recent game. That ceiling is the best on the RB board by a mile.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, vs NYJ) — Projected for 17.9 with a 34.0 ceiling. Last week's 12.4 was a little quiet, but the 16.7 three-game average is solid and the Jets spot sets up fine.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF, vs LVR) — The model still has him at 17.4 off a strong 26.4 three-game average, but he's listed Questionable. Respect that 4.4 floor and keep an eye on the inactives before you lock him in.
- James Cook (BUF, at MIN) — A 15.9 projection, and he's been hot: 21.2 over his last three and 18.1 last time out. The 29.5 ceiling is in play if the Minnesota game stays close.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, vs CIN) — Heads up on the 2.7 floor, the lowest of any back in this group. He's cooled off to an 11.0 three-game average with a 7.6 last game, so the 15.8 projection is leaning more on talent and upside than on what he's done lately.
- Chuba Hubbard (CAR, vs DEN) — Projected 15.4 with real momentum behind him: an 18.0 three-game average and 24.9 last game. He's got a legit shot at that 28.3 ceiling against Denver.
Wide Receivers
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs ARI) — The top WR on the board at 19.6 projected, and he's been on a heater with a 28.4 three-game average. That 35.1 ceiling against Arizona is the highest of any receiver here.
- Puka Nacua (LA, at WAS) — His 9.8 floor is the best of any receiver on this list. Add a 25.0 last game and a 20.3 three-game average, and the 19.3 projection might even be on the conservative side.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL, at IND) — Projected 17.2 off a 17.7 three-game average. Last week's 12.8 is a reminder that the 8.2 to 32.5 range swings both ways, but the upside in Indy is real.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, at MIA) — A 16.5 projection with an 8.3 floor gives you a pretty reliable baseline, even coming off a down 12.6 last game.
- Tee Higgins (CIN, at ATL) — A 32.1 three-game average and a ridiculous 37.5 last game make the 16.0 projection look almost low. The 28.3 ceiling is very much in play again in Atlanta.
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, at ATL) — Projected 15.8 with a 24.1 three-game average and 31.1 last game behind him. The Bengals passing game is rolling right now, and there's enough to go around for both of these guys.
Tight Ends
- Brock Bowers (LVR, at SF) — The TE1 at 15.1 projected with a 28.0 ceiling, the best at the position. He just dropped a 28.2 last game, so you've already seen what that ceiling looks like.
- George Kittle (SF, vs LVR) — A 13.8 projection backed by a 16.4 three-game average, with a 24.6 ceiling if the Raiders matchup opens up.
- Trey McBride (ARI, at SEA) — Projected 13.4 off a strong 19.9 three-game average and 20.2 last game. The 5.9 floor sits right in the middle of this group, but the recent usage says he's a weekly starter.
- Isaiah Likely (NYG, at PHI) — Projected 12.9 with a 12.5 three-game average. Nothing flashy, just a solid TE1 option in Philly.
- Tyler Warren (IND, vs DAL) — The 11.1 projection is a big jump from his 5.8 three-game average (and the same 5.8 last game), so I'd treat the 4.4 floor as the more realistic baseline until he shows me otherwise.
- Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, at NO) — Projected 11.1, and that 23.4 last game jumps off the page. The 12.8 three-game average says that was more spike than trend, though.
Rest of season: risers and fallers
Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.
Risers
- Rashee Rice (WR, KC) — The biggest riser on the board, jumping from WR40 to WR13 with his points per game going from 6.5 to 10.8. If his manager hasn't noticed yet, go get him.
- Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) — Up from QB24 to QB10 with points per game climbing to 12.1. Hold him in superflex and two-QB leagues, and kick the tires on a buy if he's sitting on someone else's bench.
- CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) — Up to WR3 with 15.9 points per game. Nothing to do here but enjoy it.
- Kenny Gainwell (RB, TB) — From RB35 to RB25 with points per game climbing to 9.1. Worth a speculative stash in deeper leagues if the volume keeps coming.
- Javonte Williams (RB, DAL) — A big jump to RB5 with points per game up to 13.7. He's a strong buy target if his manager hasn't caught on yet.
Fallers
| Player |
Team |
ROS rank |
Pts/game |
ROS pts |
Games left |
| RJ Harvey |
DEN |
RB24 → RB77 (▼53) |
8.9 → 3.4 |
30 |
9 |
| A.J. Brown |
NE |
WR23 → WR57 (▼34) |
9.5 → 5.7 |
51 |
9 |
| Carnell Tate |
TEN |
WR29 → WR56 (▼27) |
8.1 → 5.7 |
52 |
9 |
| Sam Darnold |
SEA |
QB16 → QB27 (▼11) |
10.7 → 8.4 |
76 |
9 |
| Ashton Jeanty |
LV |
RB2 → RB8 (▼6) |
15.9 → 13.7 |
123 |
9 |
- RJ Harvey (RB, DEN) — He's on injured reserve and expected back around Week 13, so the drop to 3.4 points per game is mostly the missed weeks. Stash him only if you've got a roster spot to burn and the patience to match.
- A.J. Brown (WR, NE) — Out this week with the ankle, and his points per game sliding from 9.5 to 5.7 is a real rest-of-season hit. Bench him and reassess once he's back on the field.
- Carnell Tate (WR, TEN) — Out this week with the shoulder, and at 5.7 points per game the rest-of-season outlook has dimmed too. Not a priority until he's healthy.
- Sam Darnold (QB, SEA) — Slipping from QB16 to QB27 with points per game down to 8.4. He's drifting into streamer territory, not a weekly must-start.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV) — Dropping from RB2 to RB8 with points per game down to 13.7 stings a little, but he's still an RB1. Hold, don't panic-sell.
As always, these are projections, not promises. Check the inactives before kickoff, and on the close calls, trust your gut.