Week 6 projections are in. These are our model's projected points in standard PPR scoring, with a floor and a ceiling on every guy so you can see how much variance you're signing up for. The floor is the bad week, the ceiling is the week that wins you your matchup, and the gap between them tells you how much of a coin flip you're really taking. Let's get into it.
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (BUF, at LVR) — The 18.1 projection undersells the upside a bit. A 30.1 ceiling is the highest at the position, and his floor-to-ceiling range is the widest of any QB on this list. He's been sitting right at an 18.0 three-game average, so the model isn't asking him to do anything new.
- Brock Purdy (SF, vs WAS) — Tied with Allen at the top with 18.1 projected points, though the 5.7 floor is the lowest of the group, so you're giving up a little week-to-week safety. A 22.4 three-game average says he's been running hotter than the projection.
- Jordan Love (GB, vs DAL) — A 25.3 last time out backs up the 16.7 projection. The 24.8 ceiling is on the lower end of this group, but a 7.1 floor makes him one of the steadier plays here against Dallas.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, vs LAC) — The 16.5 projection matches his 16.5 three-game average exactly, so you know what you're getting. The 27.0 ceiling is there if things break right against LAC.
- Matthew Stafford (LA, vs ARI) — A 16.2 projection with a 7.2 floor, the highest of any QB here, makes him the safe one. The trade-off is a 23.7 ceiling, the lowest of the six, so don't expect him to win you the week by himself.
- Drake Maye (NE, vs NYJ) — That 39.5 last game is the headline. The model isn't chasing it, which is why he's at 15.8, but a 29.5 ceiling says a repeat against the Jets isn't crazy.
Running Backs
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, vs LAC) — A 37.3 ceiling is the highest number anywhere in this article, and he's carrying a 26.1 three-game average into it. He's the clear No. 1 at the position, even with a 6.1 floor.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, vs CHI) — A 19.0 projection and a 26.3 three-game average is workhorse stuff. The 15.8 last time out was modest by his standards, but a 34.5 ceiling against Chicago keeps him right behind Walker.
- Derrick Henry (BAL, at CLE) — Back-to-back weeks in the 19.0 range line up nicely with the 17.4 projection, and a 32.1 ceiling says the big-play juice is still there.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF, vs WAS) — A 16.1 projection with a 4.8 floor and a 29.1 ceiling. That's actually the tightest range of the six backs here, and with 18.3 a game over his last three, he's about as steady as it gets in this tier.
- Kyren Williams (LA, vs ARI) — The 29.2 three-game average is hard to ignore, and the model has him at 16.1 with a 30.1 ceiling. The catch is a 3.5 floor, so there's more bust risk here than with the names above him.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, vs TEN) — The 3.4 floor is the lowest of the group, and an 11.2 last time out doesn't help. Still, a 29.4 ceiling means the upside case against Tennessee is very much alive.
Wide Receivers
- Puka Nacua (LA, vs ARI) — A 9.2 floor and a 32.6 ceiling are both the best of any receiver here, and he's coming in on a 27.7 three-game average. Safest floor and most upside in the same player doesn't happen often.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, at DEN) — He's questionable, so check his status before kickoff. If he's active, a 22.8 last game and a 23.6 three-game average say he's been producing, and a 30.7 ceiling keeps him in the WR1 conversation.
- Chris Olave (NO, at NYG) — The 9.1 floor is nearly as high as Nacua's, which is notable coming off an 8.6 last game. A 29.8 ceiling against the Giants gives him plenty of room to bounce back.
- Christian Watson (GB, vs DAL) — Fresh off a 32.3 eruption, the 16.7 projection looks a little conservative next to a 20.9 three-game average. A 29.0 ceiling makes him a legit boom option against Dallas.
- Zay Flowers (BAL, at CLE) — Also questionable. A 14.6 last game and an 18.6 three-game average show he's been producing, and there's a 27.5 ceiling waiting if he's cleared to go.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL, at GB) — The questionable tag and a rough 2.9 last time out are hard to ignore. But a 21.0 three-game average and a 27.2 ceiling say there's real bounce-back potential if he's right.
Tight Ends
- Brock Bowers (LVR, vs BUF) — A 23.7 three-game average and a 23.0 last game make the 15.4 projection look almost like a floor. His 29.8 ceiling leads all tight ends.
- Trey McBride (ARI, at LA) — A 21.6 last game backs up the 14.2 projection, and a 25.4 ceiling makes him a strong TE1 on the road against the Rams.
- Isaiah Likely (NYG, vs NO) — That 32.4 last game is wild. The 12.6 projection is a lot more sober, but a 16.4 three-game average and a 22.2 ceiling say the involvement is real.
- Tyler Warren (IND, vs TEN) — A 21.4 last game and a 15.1 three-game average have him trending up, and the 12.2 projection comes with a 21.7 ceiling against Tennessee.
- George Kittle (SF, vs WAS) — A quiet 7.4 last game drags the recent trend down, but a 16.9 three-game average and a 20.5 ceiling make him a decent buy-low against Washington.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI, vs CAR) — Consecutive 9.8 outputs sit right around the modest 11.2 projection. The 21.0 ceiling is there, but lately you've been getting about what the model expects.
Rest of season: risers and fallers
Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.
Risers
- Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) — With Mariota out, Daniels' rest-of-season outlook jumps from QB41 to QB22 and his per-game number climbs from 4.8 to 9.3. Worth a stash if he's sitting on your wire.
- Tyler Shough (QB, NO) — A move from QB24 to QB6, and from 8.0 to 12.1 points per game, adds up to 145 rest-of-season points. If you're hunting for QB help, this is the simple buy.
- Michael Penix Jr. (QB, ATL) — He's questionable, but the rest-of-season rank still climbs from QB37 to QB25 and the per-game outlook rises from 5.0 to 8.2. A speculative stash worth keeping an eye on.
- Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) — With Addison out, Jefferson's rest-of-season stock rises from WR29 to WR14 and his per-game projection jumps from 8.0 to 10.9, good for 131 projected points. Buy now if his price has lagged.
- Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) — A jump from TE23 to TE6, and from 6.5 to 9.2 points per game, makes him a solid hold or buy at the position.
Fallers
- Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) — He's out this week with the ankle, and the hit to his outlook is real: QB9 to QB36, and 11.8 to 5.7 points per game. Bench him and wait. Don't sell at this price.
- Kyle Monangai (RB, CHI) — Out this week with the toe, and his rest-of-season value drops to match, from RB25 to RB45 and 8.2 to 5.2 points per game. He's a bench stash at best right now.
- Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS) — Out this week with the hamstring, and the rest-of-season numbers slide from WR25 to WR54 and 8.5 to 5.8 points per game. Sell if you can, deep stash if you can't.
- T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN) — Questionable this week with the concussion, and the rest-of-season outlook has softened from TE9 to TE26, with points per game dipping from 8.2 to 6.4. Hold, but keep an eye on it before you trust him in a lineup.
- TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE) — Questionable this week with the ankle. The slide from RB26 to RB34 and from 8.0 to 6.3 points per game calls for patience, not panic.
As always, these are model projections, not locks — check inactives before kickoff and trust your gut on the close calls.