NFL Spread Picks Week One 2020

By Andy Troiano · September 11, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly rec-occurring post where we’ll provide probabilities on the home team covering the spread. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model. When the season starts, we’ll be keeping a running tally of the performance.

The other posts for week one can be found here:

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Spread Picks for Week 1 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

Game Spread Predictions For Week 1 2020

Here are our first-week predictions for your reading pleasure!

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> WinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> LoseProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .4 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.88 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam Covers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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