This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we’ll provide the projected scores for each NFL game. Right now, we have three different models for our game-specific predictions. This might cause some disagreement between the picks for the spreads, game-winners, and game scores. The solution to this is creating a more complex model that predicts all of them at the same time. Creating one robust solution is our long term plan.
The other posts for week one can be found here:
HouseKeeping!
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NFL Game Score Predictions for Week 1 2020
Current Limitations
Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:
- The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Game Spread Predictions For Week 1 2020
Here are our first-week predictions!
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamScore </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamScore </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 28 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 27 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 25 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 27 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>Score Ranges
Below is a graph containing the 1 standard deviation of possible scores for a game. 68% of each team’s scores should fall between the leftmost and rightmost values.
This is useful for a few reasons:
- A broad range between the max and min, the less confident our model is about the final game score.
- You can see the overlap between outcomes and infer (I will work on using statistics to give you the probabilities) the number of results that would lead to a team winning and losing.
Questions/Feedback
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