NFL Money Line Picks - Week 1 2020

By Andy Troiano · September 10, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly rec-occurring post where we’ll provide probabilities on who will win a game. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model. When the season starts, we’ll be keeping a running tally of the performance.

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PickEms For Week 1 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here

Game Projections For Week 1 2020

Here are our first-week predictions for your reading pleasure!

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> WinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> LoseProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamLose </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamLose </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamLose </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamLose </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamLose </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamWin </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeamLose </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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