Week 4 Fantasy Rankings: The Model’s Top Plays by Position

Week 4 is here, and the board's got a little bit of everything: a few big names carrying Questionable tags, a Saints offense that suddenly has two guys in the top three at their spots, and a Chiefs backfield leader that still looks weird to type. As always, these are our model's projected PPR points in standard scoring, with a floor and ceiling so you can see how wide each outcome really is. Read the range, not just the number.

Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen (BUF, vs NE) — Top of the board again at 19.0, and he's been flat-out absurd lately at 31.3 a game over his last three. The 32.4 ceiling is the best of any QB here, but so is the spread between that and his 6.7 floor. He's Questionable, though, so check his status before lineups lock.
• Tyler Shough (NO, vs ATL) — If you told me in August Shough would be QB2 on the week, I'd have laughed. But here he is at 17.9, with a 6.9 floor, a 30.2 ceiling, and a 23.1 average over his last three. The model's buying it.
• Jared Goff (DET, at CAR) — The safe play. Goff's 7.8 floor is the highest of any QB in this group, and his 7.8-to-27.0 range is the tightest here, built around a 17.6 projection. He's averaging 21.9 over his last three.
• Patrick Mahomes (KC, at LVR) — 17.1 projected, with a 6.4 floor and a 27.6 ceiling. He's been solid at 22.2 a game over his last three, and a division road game against the Raiders isn't scary.
• Trevor Lawrence (JAX, at CIN) — Also at 17.1, and his 17.3 three-game average says that's pretty much exactly who he's been. The 5.9 floor to 28.1 ceiling means there's upside in this one if it turns into a shootout.
• Brock Purdy (SF, vs DEN) — Rounding out the group at 17.1, Purdy has the lowest floor of these six (5.8) but a 29.8 ceiling that only Allen and Shough top, and he's been cooking at 27.0 a game over his last three. Classic boom-or-bust profile against a real defense.

Running Backs

• Bijan Robinson (ATL, at NO) — RB1 on the week at 19.2, and he owns both the best floor (6.7) and the biggest ceiling (37.7) of any back here. That's the whole package. He's averaging 25.9 over his last three.
• Kenneth Walker III (KC, at LVR) — Still getting used to seeing Walker in a Chiefs uniform, but the production's real: 26.4 a game over his last three and an 18.7 projection this week. The 4.8 floor is the catch; the 34.5 ceiling is why you start him anyway.
• Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, at CAR) — Nobody at the position has been hotter than Gibbs, who's averaging 32.8 over his last three. The model's a little more measured at 18.5, with a 5.6 floor and a 34.6 ceiling, but that's still a no-brainer start.
• Derrick Henry (BAL, vs TEN) — 18.1 projected against his old team, with a 5.6 floor and a 35.3 ceiling that's second only to Bijan here. Averaging 25.0 over his last three. Yeah, he's still doing this.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF, vs DEN) — CMC checks in at 16.6, with a 4.6 floor and a 31.7 ceiling. His 19.3 three-game average is the lowest of this group, which tells you how stacked the top of the RB board is right now.
• Jonathan Taylor (IND, at WAS) — 15.6 projected and averaging 21.2 over his last three. He's got the lowest floor of the six (3.4), so there's some dud risk, but a 31.5 ceiling keeps him firmly in lineups.

Wide Receivers

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs LAC) — JSN is on an absolute heater, averaging 34.7 over his last three, and the model has him as WR1 at 18.0. His 9.2 floor is the best of any receiver here, with a 30.2 ceiling on top.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, at CAR) — 17.6 projected with the highest ceiling of the group at 30.7 and an 8.6 floor. Averaging 25.3 over his last three. As reliable as it gets.
• Chris Olave (NO, vs ATL) — The other half of that Saints story. Olave's at 17.3, with an 8.7 floor (second-best among these receivers) and a 30.3 ceiling, and he's putting up 23.5 a game over his last three.
• Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, vs JAX) — 16.4 projected, with an 8.3 floor and a 28.8 ceiling. His 18.2 three-game average is quieter than we're used to, but you're not benching Chase.
• Parker Washington (JAX, at CIN) — The surprise name on the list. Washington projects for 16.0, with a 7.4 floor and a 27.6 ceiling, right in line with the 16.4 he's averaged over his last three. The model thinks this is real.
• Zay Flowers (BAL, vs TEN) — 15.5 projected, with a 6.6 floor and a 28.5 ceiling, and he's averaging 20.7 over his last three. He's Questionable, though, so check his status before lineups lock.

Tight Ends

• Trey McBride (ARI, at NYG) — TE1 by a comfortable margin at 14.8, and he's got both the best floor (7.1) and the best ceiling (25.8) at the position. Averaging 19.7 over his last three. Set it and forget it.
• Brock Bowers (LVR, vs KC) — Bowers has been ridiculous, averaging 27.6 over his last three, and the model has him at 13.4 with a 6.0 floor and a 23.2 ceiling. He's Questionable, though, so check his status before lineups lock.
• George Kittle (SF, vs DEN) — 12.4 projected, with a 5.3 floor and a 22.3 ceiling. Averaging 15.8 over his last three. Steady.
• Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, vs PIT) — Fannin keeps climbing: 11.8 projected, with a 4.9 floor and a 21.2 ceiling, off a 12.9 three-game average. More on him in the risers below.
• Travis Kelce (KC, at LVR) — 11.4 projected, and his 16.4 three-game average says there's still some juice in the tank. The 4.0 floor is the lowest of this group, though, with a 20.7 ceiling.
• Tyler Warren (IND, at WAS) — 11.3 projected, with a 4.4 floor and a 19.8 ceiling, averaging 13.1 over his last three. Not flashy, but a perfectly startable TE in a thin position.

Rest of season: risers and fallers

Every Tuesday the model re-projects each player from this week through Week 18. These are the biggest changes in projected points per game since last week among players projecting 8+ a game who also moved at least three spots at their position. The full risers and fallers board has everyone.

Risers

• Sam Darnold (QB, SEA) — Up 10 spots to QB24 for the rest of the season, with his rate jumping from 6.0 to 8.6 points per game over his remaining 14 games. With Drew Lock sliding hard (see below), the model is shifting Seattle's QB value his way.
• Davante Adams (WR, LA) — The biggest mover among the risers, up 13 spots to WR9, with his rate climbing from 9.5 to 11.5 per game over 14 games left. Puka Nacua is out (hip), and Adams is the guy who soaks up those targets.
• Kenneth Walker III (RB, KC) — Up 3 spots to RB3, from 13.9 to 15.3 points per game over his remaining 14 games. The model's fully bought in.
• Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) — Up 4 spots to WR6, with his rate moving from 10.9 to 12.0 per game over 14 games left. Keep an eye on that Questionable tag this week, but the long-term outlook is trending the right way.
• Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) — Up 9 spots to TE11, from 7.2 to 8.3 per game over his remaining 14 games. If you're scrambling at tight end, he's worth a look.

Fallers

• Drew Lock (QB, SEA) — The biggest drop on the board, down 38 spots to QB64, with his rate falling from 8.8 to 3.1 per game over 14 games. The flip side of the Darnold story.
• Carson Wentz (QB, MIN) — Down 22 spots to QB49, from 8.5 to 3.6 per game over his remaining 14 games. Not someone you should be counting on.
• Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) — Out this week (elbow), and down 12 spots to QB37 with his rate cut from 9.5 to 4.8 per game over 14 games left. That's a tough one for Daniels managers.
• Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) — Out this week (hamstring), and down 18 spots to QB25, from 12.9 to 8.3 per game over his remaining 14 games.
• Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) — Down 15 spots to QB21, with his rate slipping from 13.3 to 10.2 per game over 14 games. Not panic territory, but the model has cooled on him.

As always, these are model projections, not locks — check inactives before kickoff and trust your gut on the close calls.