Week 1 is on the board, so here's what the model spit out. These are projected PPR points in standard scoring, and I've included the floor and ceiling alongside each one because the projection by itself never tells you the whole story. Think of the projection as the middle outcome, and the floor/ceiling as the realistic bad day and great day on either side of it. That spread is how you separate the guys you can just plug in and forget from the guys you're buying a lottery ticket on.
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (BUF, at HOU) — Nobody's shocked. He leads the position at 18.2 and has the widest ceiling of anyone here at 32.7. That said, the 6.9 floor is real — road games have a way of producing duds even from the best guy on the board.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX, vs CLE) — He put up 23.3 last time out and he's sitting on a 25.9 three-game average, so the 17.9 projection comes with actual momentum behind it rather than just name value.
- Bo Nix (DEN, at KC) — His 7.6 floor is tied for the sturdiest in the group, which is exactly what you want to hear after a quiet 10.5 and with a road trip like this one on the schedule.
- Drake Maye (NE, at SEA) — The 24.0 three-game average is doing the heavy lifting on that 16.8 projection. Last week's 15.7 was a step back from the hot stretch, but one cooler game doesn't undo the run.
- Brock Purdy (SF, at LA) — A 24.3 three-game average tells you the upside is there, and last game's 5.2 tells you how ugly it can get. That's why the floor sits at 6.5.
- Matthew Stafford (LA, vs SF) — He's tied for the best floor here at 7.6 and he's coming off 26.7, but the 22.3 ceiling is the lowest in the group. Safe, just don't expect him to win you the week by himself.
Running Backs
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, at PIT) — Best projection of the group at 17.4 and the highest ceiling on the entire board at 35.0. Then you look at last week's 7.3 and the 4.7 floor and remember that running back is running back.
- De'Von Achane (MIA, at LVR) — 16.6 projected with a 31.4 ceiling, and a 16.1 three-game average propping it up even without a recent game to point at. Easy start.
- Derrick Henry (BAL, at IND) — That 5.9 floor is the safest of any back here, and with a 27.0 three-game average behind him, the 16.1 projection might be selling him short.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, vs NO) — He's coming off 20.3 and projected for 16.1, with a 30.5 ceiling and the same 4.7 floor that follows almost everybody at this position around.
- Chase Brown (CIN, vs TB) — A 27.0 three-game average and a 19.0 last week back up the 15.8 projection, and the 29.1 ceiling means he can absolutely be the guy who wins your matchup.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF, at LA) — 15.6 projected with a 29.6 ceiling, but the 4.0 floor is the lowest of any back on this list. Boom or bust, and you're starting him anyway.
Wide Receivers
- Puka Nacua (LA, vs SF) — He sweeps the category: best projection at 16.9, best floor at 8.2, best ceiling at 30.5. He's also coming off 26.0 with a 29.4 three-game average. There's not much left to argue about.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, vs NO) — A 24.9 last week rolls into a 14.6 projection, and the 7.4 floor makes him one of the more dependable options at a position that loves to break your heart.
- Chris Olave (NO, at DET) — A 31.3 three-game average is absurd, and it makes the 14.5 projection look almost shy. The 7.0 floor is the model's way of keeping you honest.
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, vs TB) — 23.6 last week, 14.0 projected, 25.4 ceiling. The weekly upside speaks for itself.
- Michael Wilson (ARI, at LAC) — 20.9 last week plus an 18.0 three-game average gets him to 13.6, and that 27.7 ceiling is higher than you'd expect from a guy sitting fifth on this list.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs NE) — He closes out the group at 13.1, and his 23.1 ceiling is the lowest of these six. Fine start, just not the one that breaks the week open.
Tight Ends
- Trey McBride (ARI, at LAC) — Top of the position at 13.5 with the best ceiling of the bunch at 25.0, and he hit 13.5 last week. Landing right on your number is a good look.
- Kyle Pitts (ATL, at PIT) — 11.8 last game and an 11.4 three-game average make the 12.7 projection feel earned, and there's a 22.5 ceiling in there if the matchup cooperates.
- Colston Loveland (CHI, at CAR) — He dropped 25.1 last week, which drags his three-game average up to 17.5 — way north of the 12.0 projection. The model isn't fully bought in yet, but the spike is clearly in his range.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI, vs WAS) — 10.4 projected with an 11.0 three-game average. He's the steady-checkbox guy, not the one you're hoping goes nuclear.
- George Kittle (SF, at LA) — Last game's 7.9 was a dip off his 16.2 three-game average, and the 9.8 projection is the model playing it careful this week.
- Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, at JAX) — A 15.2 three-game average sitting well above a 9.3 projection is interesting, but he also carries the lowest floor at the position at 3.4. Upside with a trap door.
These are projections, not promises. Check inactives before kickoff, and if your gut is screaming on a close call, listen to it.