Week 1 of the 2026 season is here, and the numbers below are our projected PPR points under standard scoring, with floor and ceiling ranges so you can see how much risk you're actually taking on with each guy. Some of these ranges are wide enough to drive a truck through, so don't just chase the projection number without reading the spread.
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (BUF, at HOU) — The 18.2 projection leads the position and that 32.7 ceiling is the highest of any QB on this list, but a 6.9 floor and a modest 15.0 three-game average show this comes with real boom-or-bust risk on the road.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX, vs CLE) — He's actually been outproducing his own projection lately, averaging 25.9 over his last three with a 23.3 last time out, so the 17.9 number here might be underselling him even with a 6.9 floor.
- Bo Nix (DEN, at KC) — A 7.6 floor ties for the safest among this group, but the 10.5 last game and modest 15.1 three-game average against a projection of 17.1 make him more of a steady play than a spike week at KC.
- Drake Maye (NE, at SEA) — He's coming off a 15.7 outing but the 24.0 three-game average suggests more in the tank than the 16.8 projection implies, even with the lowest floor here at 6.7.
- Brock Purdy (SF, at LA) — This is about as boom-or-bust as it gets — a 24.3 three-game average and 28.0 ceiling sit right next to a 5.2 last game and the lowest floor in the group at 6.5.
- Matthew Stafford (LA, vs SF) — The tradeoff here is capped upside for stability — his 22.3 ceiling is the lowest of the bunch, but a 7.6 floor and a hot 26.7 last game make him a reasonably safe QB2 conversation.
Running Backs
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, at PIT) — The 35.0 ceiling is the highest of any back on the board and the 25.7 three-game average is elite, but a 7.3 last game and 4.7 floor remind you this workload can go sideways fast.
- De'Von Achane (MIA, at LVR) — A 16.6 projection with a 31.4 ceiling gives him top-tier spike potential, and the 16.1 three-game average lines up almost exactly with what the model expects this week.
- Derrick Henry (BAL, at IND) — His 5.9 floor is the highest of any back here, and pairing that with a 31.0 ceiling and 27.0 three-game average makes him one of the safer high-upside plays on the slate, even after a quieter 12.6 last time out.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, vs NO) — He bounced back with a 20.3 performance last game, and a 30.5 ceiling on top of a 16.1 projection keeps him firmly in the RB1 mix.
- Chase Brown (CIN, vs TB) — A scorching 27.0 three-game average and 19.0 last game back up the 15.8 projection here, though the 4.6 floor shows the touches can dry up in a hurry.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF, at LA) — The 29.6 ceiling and 24.1 three-game average show the talent is still there, but the 4.0 floor is the lowest of any back on this list, and a 11.7 last game keeps some caution in play.
Wide Receivers
- Puka Nacua (LA, vs SF) — He's the clear top receiver on the board — the 8.2 floor and 30.5 ceiling are both the best of any WR here, and a 29.4 three-game average with a 26.0 last game backs up every bit of the 16.9 projection.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, vs NO) — A 24.9 last game well outpaces the 16.4 three-game average, and with a 14.6 projection and 24.9 ceiling he's a strong floor play with real spike potential.
- Chris Olave (NO, at DET) — The 31.3 three-game average is eye-popping relative to the 14.5 projection, suggesting there could be more here than the number shows, with a 24.3 ceiling to match.
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, vs TB) — Coming off a 23.6 performance and sitting on a 22.8 three-game average, the 14.0 projection with a 25.4 ceiling feels like a reasonable floor for his talent level.
- Michael Wilson (ARI, at LAC) — His 27.7 ceiling is second-best at the position, but it comes with the lowest floor among these receivers at 5.6, so the 20.9 last game shows the upside while the range shows the risk.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, vs NE) — He's the safer, lower-variance option of this group with the tightest range of the bunch, a 23.1 ceiling that's the lowest here, backed by a 18.1 three-game average and 14.4 last game.
Tight Ends
- Trey McBride (ARI, at LAC) — He's the clear TE1 here with both the highest floor at 6.0 and the highest ceiling at 25.0 among tight ends, and a 13.5 last game matches right up with the 13.5 projection.
- Kyle Pitts (ATL, at PIT) — A 22.5 ceiling gives him real spike weeks, and his 11.8 last game and 11.4 three-game average line up close to the 12.7 projection.
- Colston Loveland (CHI, at CAR) — He just dropped a 25.1 performance and carries a 17.5 three-game average well above the 12.0 projection, making him an intriguing value with a 21.3 ceiling.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI, vs WAS) — The 10.4 projection is backed by a steady 11.0 three-game average, though a 4.2 floor and 18.9 ceiling keep him firmly in low-ceiling TE2 territory.
- George Kittle (SF, at LA) — His 16.8 ceiling is the lowest of this group, and after a 7.9 last game the 9.8 projection looks like a fair discount despite a healthy 16.2 three-game average.
- Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, at JAX) — He carries the lowest floor here at 3.4, but a 15.2 three-game average against a 9.3 projection and 17.2 ceiling suggests some sneaky upside if things break right.
As always, these are model projections, not locks — check inactives before kickoff and trust your gut on the close calls.