Florida State at No. 3 Miami

Experimental model: market-anchored, it moves the line only slightly and matched the closing line in the 2024-25 backtest rather than beating it. A second opinion, not a pick. Odds are shown for information only and change quickly; confirm the price at the sportsbook. There is no gambling offered on this site. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.

Florida State 35, Miami 43 on Oct 17, 2026. Against the closing line, Florida State covered; the total went over. Box score context, records against the spread and the head-to-head series.

Game details

  • Kickoff (ET): Saturday, October 17, 2026, 7:00 PM
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • Consensus spread: Miami -20
  • Consensus total: 57
  • Moneyline: Miami -1600 / Florida State +850
  • Model projection (experimental): Florida State 18 - Miami 38.7; Miami wins 89%
  • Model fair line (experimental): Miami -20.5, total 56.5
  • Final: Florida State 35, Miami 43
  • Against the spread: Florida State covered
  • Total: Over

Team comparison

TeamRecordConfATSAPSP+
Florida State5-53-45-4-15.5
No. 3 Miami9-17-06-4-0No. 324

Florida State recent games

DateOpponentResultScore
Oct 9at LouisvilleL20-44
Oct 3vs VirginiaW38-7
Sep 26vs Central ArkansasW34-7

Miami recent games

DateOpponentResultScore
Oct 3at ClemsonW41-13
Sep 26vs Central MichiganW52-3
Sep 18at Wake ForestW33-20

Head-to-head (last 10 meetings)

SeasonHomeAwayScore
2025Florida StateMiami22-28
2024MiamiFlorida State36-14
2023Florida StateMiami27-20
2022MiamiFlorida State3-45
2021Florida StateMiami31-28
2020MiamiFlorida State52-10
2019Florida StateMiami10-27
2018MiamiFlorida State28-27
2017Florida StateMiami20-24
2016MiamiFlorida State19-20

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com