NFL Spread Picks - Week 2 2020

By Andy Troiano · September 18, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 2 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets.

  • In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
  • That is the population with the highest win rate
  • We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 2 2020

Here are our second-week predictions for your reading pleasure!

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-17 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.87 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 13:00:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.23 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 16:05:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 16:25:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-20 20:20:00 EDT </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-09-21 20:15:00 EDT </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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