Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings - 2021 NFL Season

By Andy Troiano · June 28, 2021

Projecting rookies is incredibly hard. This is the first year we’ve been able to get a model working and ready for the season.
To celebrate, I’m going to include most of the projections for you to review and use in your drafts.

We have other yearly predictions in the links below. You can also view our predictions by creating a free account by clicking here

You can view our STD yearly prediction article here

You can view our PPR yearly prediction article here

What Do We Provide During The Season?

Subscription Stuff

We provide weekly projections and stats for $5 a month for the regular season. When the season is over, we do not bill.

With the MVP subscription:

  • You can customize scoring
  • Save players to your roster
  • Download all the predictions into a CSV file
  • Download raw player data to do your analysis/modeling

You can make a free account now and see what we are about!

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We also have a How-To article you can review to give you a taste of what is available.

Non-Subscription Stuff We Do Weekly

We are a top expert on NFL Pickwatch for both against the spread and straight-up betting. Each week, we post the picks on the blog. During the 2020 season, we were in the top 10 for straight-up picks and 3rd against the spread. If you combine our total wins, we were number 1 overall.

Each week, we also provide the top 25 players overall and top 10 at each position for free in the app. The scoring for these rankings are PPR/STD/FD/DK.

Model Notes and General Comments on Our Process (Please Read)

I’m going to keep this to a bullet point list:

  • Playing time is the biggest question mark when drafting a rookie and this model attempts to take averages of playing time expectations into account.

  • We value transparency and are open to answering any questions you have if you want to join our slack channel (link at the bottom of this post).

What do the fields mean

  • Avg Pts is the mean projected points for a given player, assuming the the player plays all season

  • Max Pts/ Min Pts the worst and best case scenario points we think the player can get this year (outside a season-ending injury in week 1)

  • Point Overview - 1 PPR and 6 Pt per Passing TD; everything else is standard across CBS/ESPN

Why AVG, MIN, MAX?

We provide the avg, min, and max to help you plan for uncertainty. In general, when you try to build models that predict a numeric outcome (like we do), it is helpful to get a range of possible outcomes. The more significant the spread, the more risk. Last year, 72% of our preseason rankings fell within the ranges we provided.

Top 25 Rankings (All Rankings Updated 2021-06-22)

The table below contains the top 25 players overall.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> name </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Position </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Min Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Avg Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Max Pts </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Travis Etienne </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 244 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 391 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Najee Harris </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 243 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 425 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Trevor Lawrence </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 87 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 205 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 294 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Trey Sermon </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 205 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 341 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kadarius Toney </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 20 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 188 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 347 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chris Evans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 186 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 311 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michael Carter </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 31 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 185 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 317 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Elijah Mitchell </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 185 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 313 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Larry Rountree </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 184 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 302 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Khalil Herbert </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 183 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 307 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaylen Waddle </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 181 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 353 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Rondale Moore </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 179 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 339 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Anthony Schwartz </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 178 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 324 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Rashod Bateman </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 177 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 348 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> D’Wayne Eskridge </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 173 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 336 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> DeVonta Smith </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 346 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Javonte Williams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 337 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ja’Marr Chase </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 341 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chuba Hubbard </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 168 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 313 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Terrace Marshall Jr.  </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 167 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 328 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Elijah Moore </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 165 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 322 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Amari Rodgers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 164 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 311 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kylin Hill </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 157 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 278 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Gary Brightwell </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 156 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 297 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Nico Collins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 153 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 298 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Top 10 WR

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> name </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Position </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Min Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Avg Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Max Pts </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kadarius Toney </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 20 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 188 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 347 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaylen Waddle </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 181 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 353 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Rondale Moore </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 179 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 339 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Anthony Schwartz </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 178 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 324 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Rashod Bateman </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 177 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 348 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> D’Wayne Eskridge </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 173 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 336 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> DeVonta Smith </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 346 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ja’Marr Chase </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 341 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Terrace Marshall Jr.  </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 167 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 328 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Elijah Moore </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> WR </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 165 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 322 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Top 10 RB

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> name </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Position </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Min Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Avg Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Max Pts </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Travis Etienne </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 244 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 391 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Najee Harris </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 243 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 425 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Trey Sermon </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 205 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 341 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chris Evans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 186 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 311 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michael Carter </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 31 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 185 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 317 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Elijah Mitchell </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 185 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 313 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Larry Rountree </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 184 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 302 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Khalil Herbert </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 183 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 307 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Javonte Williams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 337 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chuba Hubbard </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> RB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 168 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 313 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Top 10 QB

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> name </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Position </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Min Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Avg Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Max Pts </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Trevor Lawrence </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 87 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 205 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 294 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kellen Mond </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 150 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 248 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Justin Fields </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 145 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 340 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zach Wilson </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 145 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 341 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Sam Ehlinger </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 141 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 217 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ian Book </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 135 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 236 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Mac Jones </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 123 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 414 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kyle Trask </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 104 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 396 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Davis Mills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> QB </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 293 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Top 10 TE

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> name </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Position </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Min Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Avg Pts </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Max Pts </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kyle Pitts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 132 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 227 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pat Freiermuth </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 123 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 205 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tre’ McKitty </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 115 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 194 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Hunter Long </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 106 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 183 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Noah Gray </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 102 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 173 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Brevin Jordan </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 102 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 173 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> John Bates </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 101 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 173 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tommy Tremble </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 101 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 178 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Luke Farrell </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 171 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kylen Granson </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> TE </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 159 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions?

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