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Rookies in fantasy football are some of the hardest players to project. There is no data to really tell how they will project and perform against equal talent and now that they are getting paid. With that said, there is ALWAYS a rookie that takes the fantasy world by storm and wins multiple fantasy teams their league's championship, ala Cam Newton, Saquon Barkley, Juju Smith-Schuster. So I have a few rookies that I think will personally outplay their projections and could potentially boom.
QB- Kyler Murray- ARI
He is the starting QB for a new head coach that has wanted to coach him again for years. Will he lead the league in any QB stat this year? No. Will he make huge rookie mistakes that cost his team games? Probably. But, will he also consistently use his legs when his atrocious o line lets people through? Does he have arguably the best check down back in the league that could take a dump off 40+ yards in David Johnson? Does he also get to throw the ball 40+ times a game because his team will be behind most of the season? Yes. Simply put, I think Kyler is well worth a late-round pick and will out-perform his 224 projected total. Josh Allen who is a good comp from last year scored 317 while missing a handful of games due to injury and I think that a better passing version Allen is a good comparison for Kyler.
RB- David Montgomery- CHI
In what was considered a terrible season, Jordan Howard tallied 152 fantasy points last season. That alone is higher than the abysmal 114 non-PPR projected points of David Montgomery. Chicago traded up in the draft to get Montgomery to allow them to move on from Howard. I know Tarik Cohen is there, but he is not a threat to be a sole number one running back. He is a slot/pass-catching back that I believe will have a good year in his own right. Last year, Chicago was also in the top 5 of teams in RB target percentage so there are touches to go around. However, someone needs to take the bulk majority of carries as well as the goal-line work for Chicago and it will be David Montgomery. Also prior to contrary belief Montgomery, is not a big bruiser at 5’10” 216lbs but he actually possesses some of the best footwork and elusiveness from this draft. He has rookie of the year potential.
WR- D.K Metcalf- SEA
Have you seen him? Honestly, do you know what this guy looks like? Google him now if you don’t. 6’3” 227lbs and ran a 4.33 forty yard dash time. I know size and speed don’t always equate to big breakout at the wideout spot, (see John Ross and Kevin White) however, especially with the retirement of Doug Baldwin this offseason, the chance for D.K to break out is there. Seattle does not throw the ball much, they love to feed there running backs, but when they do, a lot of it is Russell Wilson playing a little backyard football dancing around until someone shakes loose and he bombs it to him. Tyler Lockett last year had 916 yards and 7 TD’s on no more than 5 catches in any single game leading to 136 fantasy points. Lockett is 5’11” 170lbs, he will get a few bombs this year, but he is useless in the RedZone, and I love the outlook and potential of D.K being able to succeed on those deep bombs from Russ to way exceed his 71 in non-PPR projected points.
