Week 2 rankings are up, and as always these are our model's projected PPR points in standard scoring, with floor and ceiling ranges built in so you can see how much risk you're actually taking on. Some of these guys are coming off huge Week 1 numbers and the model is still trying to figure out how much to trust it, so read the ranges as much as the projection itself.
Quarterbacks
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX, at DEN) — He tops the position at 17.6 projected points even though his 3-game avg of 24.2 is middle of the pack here, and the 6.7 to 28.7 range tells you this is more about matchup upside at DEN than a sure thing.
- Brock Purdy (SF, vs MIA) — The 17.0 projection comes with the highest ceiling of any QB on this list at 29.1, and he's been remarkably steady doing it — his 3-game avg and last game are both 21.1.
- Josh Allen (BUF, vs DET) — He's been on an absolute tear, with a 29.4 3-game average and 35.7 last time out, but the model's still cautious here with the lowest floor of the group at 5.7 heading into a tougher DET matchup.
- Caleb Williams (CHI, vs MIN) — A 37.3 last game is hard to ignore, and paired with a 25.6 3-game average, he's got real weekly upside even if the 16.4 projection plays it a bit safer.
- Tyler Shough (NO, at BAL) — He quietly carries the highest floor among the group at 7.0, and with a 22.3 3-game average he's been a stealthy source of QB points even on the road at BAL.
- Bryce Young (CAR, at ATL) — The 31.4 explosion last game bumps his stock, but a 19.0 3-game average and 16.0 projection suggest the model wants to see it again before fully buying in.
Running Backs
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, vs CAR) — Nothing else in this range comes close to his 43.1 ceiling, and with a 26.2 3-game average and 31.3 last game, he's the clear top projection at 18.1 points.
- Derrick Henry (BAL, vs NO) — He's been the most consistent workhorse in the group, posting the highest 3-game average at 31.2 and following it up with 35.3 last time out, which makes his 16.0 floor of 5.6 feel almost like a formality.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, vs IND) — The 34.1 last game is eye-popping, but the 3.1 floor is the lowest of any back here, so there's real boom-or-bust risk tied to the 15.4 projection.
- Chase Brown (CIN, at HOU) — He's the model of steadiness at 15.2 projected points, with a tighter 4.5 to 27.4 range and a 22.3 3-game average that's held up well.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, at BUF) — A 33.6 last game pushes his ceiling to 29.5, but the 3.2 floor means the 14.6 projection comes with some volatility built in.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF, vs MIA) — He carries the lowest floor of any back on this list at 2.9, and with a 13.8 last game and 17.9 3-game average trailing the pack, the 14.4 projection reflects some real uncertainty.
Wide Receivers
- Puka Nacua (LA, vs NYG) — He's the safest bet at the position with the highest floor here at 8.3 and the highest ceiling too at 26.6, which is why he sits atop the group at 15.7 points despite a quieter 12.4 last game.
- Chris Olave (NO, at BAL) — The 27.0 3-game average and 28.2 last game are both tops among these receivers, giving real confidence behind the 14.0 projection.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, at BUF) — A 28.7 last game and 22.8 3-game average back up the 13.6 projection nicely against BUF.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, at ARI) — He matches St. Brown's 13.6 projection with a 26.2 last game and a 23.9 ceiling that gives him real spike-week appeal.
- Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, at HOU) — The 3.2 last game stands out as a clear outlier against a 17.3 3-game average, so the 12.6 projection assumes some regression back toward form.
- Michael Wilson (ARI, vs SEA) — He rounds out the group at 12.1 points with the lowest floor here at 5.2, though a 17.1 3-game average shows he's capable of more.
Tight Ends
- Trey McBride (ARI, vs SEA) — He's the clear top option with the highest floor at 6.0 and highest ceiling at 24.3, backed by a 20.5 3-game average and 24.5 last game.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI, at TEN) — A 23.7 last game and 16.8 3-game average support the 11.5 projection well heading to TEN.
- Kyle Pitts (ATL, vs CAR) — The 10.8 projection is a leap of faith given a 5.1 3-game average and a 0.0 last game, so this one leans on matchup upside more than recent production.
- Colston Loveland (CHI, vs MIN) — He shares the 10.8 projection with Pitts, but his 15.5 3-game average is far stronger even though he also posted 0.0 last time out.
- Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, at TB) — The 10.0 projection comes with the lowest floor in the group at 3.2, and a 7.5 3-game average suggests the ceiling of 19.2 is more theoretical than expected.
- Juwan Johnson (NO, at BAL) — He closes out the list at 8.9 points with the lowest ceiling here at 15.4, though a 14.4 last game and 11.7 3-game average show some recent life.
As always, these are model projections, not locks — check inactives before kickoff and trust your gut on the close calls.