NFL Week 9 Pick'Em

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

Probability of Team Winning
Projected Game Score

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

Below is the percent correct for the year

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.71 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted. <table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 35 </td> <td> 42 </td> <td> 0.83 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 50 </td> <td> 78 </td> <td> 0.64 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 0.27 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 0.30 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.79 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> 0.39 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.43 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.70 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.41 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.30 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.51 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> 0.16 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

NOTE - There are issues with the KC and MN game. Those will not be projeceted this week.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 0 </td> <td> 0 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 0 </td> <td> 0 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 16 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 20 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 16 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 20 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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