Week 8 SNF Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline | vs Green Bay Packers | 4U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers / Packers Under 45.5 | Game Total | 2U |
Analysis
After handily beating the Lions in Week 1, the Packers have been a huge disappointment (and I'm not just saying that as a Bears fan). Barely beating the Browning led Bengals and Cardinals. Losing to the Browns, and tying the Cowboys. They are 3-0 at home, and 1-1-1 on the road. Their run defense ranks 2nd in the league in yards per game, but they've only forced 3 turnovers per game. Jordan Love was expected to have a great season after a breakout year last season, but he has regressed to being a middle of the pack QB. On the other side of the Ball, the Steelers were expected to be competitive this season because of their defense. Instead, it's been the opposite, with their offense, and 85 year old A-Aron Rodgers carrying them to a 4-2 record, with their 2 losses being when the defense gave up over 30 points. The defense hasn't been great in containing other teams in both the run and pass, but they have forced 10 turnovers in 6 games, tied for 3rd best in the league. And whenever you have an elite edge rusher like J.J. Watt, there's always going to be pressure on the QB, which leads to sacks and errant passes. I think Pittsburgh is the better team, especially at home at the former Big Ketchup Bottle. The main moneyline model has the Steelers winning 49% of the time, but the other models are over 50%. I am taking the Steelers on the Moneyline. The team total model has a score prediction of 20-17 in favor of the Steelers, further supporting out Moneyline play, and also suggesting value on the Under 45.5.
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