NFL Week 8 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · October 23, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning
  • The risk of the bet for the probability of the team winning
  • Scores for Each Team

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.7 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our predictions as a guide. Note- The current sample is small so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away\_team\_wins </td> <td> 33 </td> <td> 39 </td> <td> 0.85 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home\_team\_wins </td> <td> 40 </td> <td> 66 </td> <td> 0.61 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> 0.89 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.56 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.57 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> 0.55 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.81 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.70 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> 0.69 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> 0.85 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> 0.77 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> 0.86 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> 0.69 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.91 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> New York Jets </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 17 </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 20 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 16 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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