David's NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)
The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Week 7 of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.
Week 7 TNF Picks
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers / Bengals Under 45 | Game Total | 2U |
The Steelers have been a pleasant surprise to most people with season, starting 4-1, with a 75 year old quarterback leading the team. The offense has been stable, but not great, scoring 21-24 points in each of the last 3 games. The defense, what the Steelers tend to be known for, is what's propelling them to their wins, allowing just 15 points per game over their last 4 games, which included 2 playoff caliber opponents; Seahawks and Patriots. They rank 2nd in sacks, 3rd in turnovers, and 4th in redzone defense. Where the Steelers defense has struggled is against the pass. And while the Bengals have elite receivers, 70 year old Joe Flacco isn't exactly going to lead them with an explosive aerial attack. On the other sideline, the Bengals watched their season unravel when they lost Joe Burrow to injury. The Bengals were inept on offensive with Jake Browning under center, and the opponent scores were getting inflated by all of the turnovers. With change in QB last week, the Bengals were more competitive against the Packers, and covered the spread. The GAI main spread model has this right at 50-50. The other models are also even split on which team has the better chance of covering. The team total model has a projection of 23-18 in favor of the Steelers, which is right in line with the point spread of -5.5/-5. On the side, this a no-play for me. The total projected score of 41 implies value on the Under 45. The line opened 46.5 and was quickly bet down to 44.5, today it ticked back up to 45, which can be a key number, so it's time to fire. This could easily be one of those Bad Thursday night games, with slopply plays and lots of punting. Both of these teams struggle to run the ball. The Bengal rank dead last in rushing yards per game (25 yard less than the next closest team), and the Steelers are 4th to last. Again, this could lead to a lot of punting tonight. The Steelers defense should hold the Bengals in check. Just need the Bengals to not be the Bungals.
GridironAI Edge
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.