NFL Week 7 Pick'Em

By Andy Troiano · October 17, 2019

About our Model

The current model is predicting the following information:

  • Probability of Team Winning

Updates

The new output will have three outputs: 1, The projected winner 2. The probability of the home team winning (you can subtract one from that value to get the likelihood of the away team winning), 3. The risk.

  • Right now, the risk is defined as any probability that is between 50% and 51%.

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about major roster changes that occur before the current game.
  • Backtested results (below) are the season to date numbers

Backtested Performance Results

The current backtest results are for the first two weeks of the season. This will also give you an idea of the performance if we were using this model all year.

  • Below is the percent correct for the year
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Correct </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 0.69 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is a table that outlines how the model does with the individual predictions. This is useful if you want to use our forecasts as a guide. Note- The current sample is small, so any broad conclusions you make need to be discounted.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> predict </th> <th> Total Correct </th> <th> Total Pred </th> <th> Correct % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> away_team_wins </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> 32 </td> <td> 0.84 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> home_team_wins </td> <td> 36 </td> <td> 59 </td> <td> 0.61 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Projections

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team Name </th> <th> Home Team Prob </th> <th> Pickem </th> <th> Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> 0.24 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> 0.71 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> 0.85 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> 0.47 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> 0.46 </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> 0.30 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> <td> 0.75 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> 0.36 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> 0.29 </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> 0.39 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> <td> 0.70 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> 0.60 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td> 0.67 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> 0.33 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Projected Game Scores

<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Home Team Score </th> <th> Away Team Score </th> <th> Home Team </th> <th> Away Team </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 30 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> <td> New York Giants </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 29 </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td> Carolina Panthers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 31 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Cleveland Browns </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 28 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 25 </td> <td> 22 </td> <td> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 21 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Detroit Lions </td> <td> Minnesota Vikings </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 14 </td> <td> 26 </td> <td> Washington Redskins </td> <td> San Francisco 49ers </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 31 </td> <td> 19 </td> <td> Green Bay Packers </td> <td> Oakland Raiders </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Chicago Bears </td> <td> New Orleans Saints </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 23 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td> Los Angeles Rams </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 27 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td> Philadelphia Eagles </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 27 </td> <td> New York Jets </td> <td> New England Patriots </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 22 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Denver Broncos </td> <td> Kansas City Chiefs </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 19 </td> <td> 25 </td> <td> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td> Baltimore Ravens </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 26 </td> <td> 21 </td> <td> New York Giants </td> <td> Arizona Cardinals </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 29 </td> <td> 15 </td> <td> Buffalo Bills </td> <td> Miami Dolphins </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 24 </td> <td> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td> Houston Texans </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 24 </td> <td> 23 </td> <td> Tennessee Titans </td> <td> Los Angeles Chargers </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Questions/Feedback

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